There was better buying of long-end Treasuries overnight following last week’s sell-off that pushed the 10-year yield up 9 basis points (bps) to a 4-year high. The 2-year/10-year Treasury spread (curve slope) is still holding just below 60 bps. The government shutdown is in its third day, but it isn’t having a significant impact on markets at this point given that the debt ceiling is not in play this time around (no Treasury default risk). Major global equity indices are modestly higher for the most part today, and S&P 500 futures are unchanged. Investors are more focused on this week’s Bank of Japan (BOJ) and European Central Bank (ECB) meetings on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. Any upgrades to either bank’s economic/inflation forecasts and/or hawkish guidance related to asset purchase programs would likely put further pressure on long-end government bond yields. San Francisco Fed President John Williams was the latest policymaker to suggest four rate hikes may be necessary in 2018. On the data front, this week will be headlined by the first look at Q4 GDP on Friday (3% expected).
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | |
| 01/22/2018 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | Dec | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| 01/23/2018 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | Jan | 19 | — |
| 01/24/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 19-Jan | — | — |
| 01/24/2018 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | Nov | 0.50% | — |
| 01/24/2018 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | Jan P | 55 | — |
| 01/24/2018 | Markit US Services PMI | Jan P | 54.3 | — |
| 01/24/2018 | Markit US Composite PMI | Jan P | — | — |
| 01/24/2018 | Existing Home Sales | Dec | 5.70m | — |
| 01/24/2018 | Existing Home Sales MoM | Dec | -1.90% | — |
| 01/25/2018 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | Dec | -$68.9b | — |
| 01/25/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | Dec P | 0.40% | — |
| 01/25/2018 | Retail Inventories MoM | Dec | — | — |
| 01/25/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 20-Jan | 235k | — |
| 01/25/2018 | Continuing Claims | 13-Jan | 1925k | — |
| 01/25/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 21-Jan | — | — |
| 01/25/2018 | New Home Sales | Dec | 675k | — |
| 01/25/2018 | New Home Sales MoM | Dec | -7.90% | — |
| 01/25/2018 | Leading Index | Dec | 0.50% | — |
| 01/25/2018 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | Jan | 15 | — |
| 01/26/2018 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 4Q A | 3.00% | — |
| 01/26/2018 | Personal Consumption | 4Q | 3.70% | — |
| 01/26/2018 | GDP Price Index | 4Q A | 2.30% | — |
| 01/26/2018 | Core PCE QoQ | 4Q A | 1.90% | — |
| 01/26/2018 | Durable Goods Orders | Dec P | 0.90% | — |
| 01/26/2018 | Durables Ex Transportation | Dec P | 0.60% | — |
| 01/26/2018 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | Dec P | 0.60% | — |
| 01/26/2018 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | Dec P | 0.40% | — |
| 01/29/2018 | Personal Income | Dec | 0.30% | — |
| 01/29/2018 | Personal Spending | Dec | 0.50% | — |
| 01/29/2018 | Real Personal Spending | Dec | — | — |
| 01/29/2018 | PCE Deflator MoM | Dec | 0.10% | — |
| 01/29/2018 | PCE Deflator YoY | Dec | — | — |
| 01/29/2018 | PCE Core MoM | Dec | 0.20% | — |
| 01/29/2018 | PCE Core YoY | Dec | — | — |
| 01/29/2018 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | Jan | 25.3 | — |