January 25, 2021 Headlines

Concerns over the virus distribution effort in Europe and the potential for additional lockdowns is weighing on risk assets this morning, and as a result, Treasury yields are lower and flatter. The White House’s $1.9 billion stimulus proposal continues to meet resistance in Congress, which is also fueling a bid for long-end rates. A bipartisan group of lawmakers, which includes a mix of 16 Senate Democrats and Republicans, has asked White House economic advisor Brian Deese to justify the size of the aid package. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who is not part of the bipartisan group, yesterday urged the use of reconciliation to get through major components of the package. Reconciliation is a procedural tactic that allows for a simple 51-vote majority to pass. There are still questions as to what parts would be able to pass via reconciliation, and it’s also not certain that getting the 51 votes would be a foregone conclusion.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

01/25/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.10.520.270.31
01/25/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity129.7
01/26/21FHFA House Price Index MoM0.80%1.50%
01/26/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA8.70%7.95%
01/26/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.00%1.61%
01/26/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA9.00%8.41%
01/26/21Conf. Board Expectations87.5
01/26/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence8988.6
01/26/21Conf. Board Present Situation90.3
01/26/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1919
01/27/21MBA Mortgage Applications-1.90%
01/27/21Durable Goods Orders1.00%1.00%
01/27/21Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.40%
01/27/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.50%
01/27/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%0.50%
01/27/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
01/27/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
01/27/21Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%
01/28/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$84.0b-$84.8b
01/28/21Retail Inventories MoM0.60%0.70%
01/28/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.00%
01/28/21GDP Annualized QoQ4.20%33.40%
01/28/21Initial Jobless Claims878k900k
01/28/21Continuing Claims5100k5054k
01/28/21Personal Consumption3.00%41.00%
01/28/21GDP Price Index2.20%3.50%
01/28/21Core PCE QoQ1.20%3.40%
01/28/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort43.7
01/28/21Leading Index0.30%0.60%
01/28/21New Home Sales866k841k
01/28/21New Home Sales MoM2.90%-11.00%
01/28/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1214
01/28/21Revisions: ISM Manufacturing & Services
01/29/21Personal Income0.10%-1.10%
01/29/21Personal Spending-0.40%-0.40%
01/29/21Employment Cost Index0.50%0.50%
01/29/21Real Personal Spending-0.60%-0.40%
01/29/21PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.00%
01/29/21PCE Deflator YoY1.20%1.10%
01/29/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.00%
01/29/21PCE Core Deflator YoY1.30%1.40%
01/29/21MNI Chicago PMI58.359.558.7
01/29/21Pending Home Sales MoM-0.50%-2.60%
01/29/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY16.00%
01/29/21U. of Mich. Sentiment79.279.2
01/29/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions87.7
01/29/21U. of Mich. Expectations73.8
01/29/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
01/29/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%

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