January 25, 2021 Headlines

Concerns over the virus distribution effort in Europe and the potential for additional lockdowns is weighing on risk assets this morning, and as a result, Treasury yields are lower and flatter. The White House’s $1.9 billion stimulus proposal continues to meet resistance in Congress, which is also fueling a bid for long-end rates. A bipartisan group of lawmakers, which includes a mix of 16 Senate Democrats and Republicans, has asked White House economic advisor Brian Deese to justify the size of the aid package. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, who is not part of the bipartisan group, yesterday urged the use of reconciliation to get through major components of the package. Reconciliation is a procedural tactic that allows for a simple 51-vote majority to pass. There are still questions as to what parts would be able to pass via reconciliation, and it’s also not certain that getting the 51 votes would be a foregone conclusion.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
01/25/21 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.1 0.52 0.27 0.31
01/25/21 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 12 9.7
01/26/21 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.80% 1.50%
01/26/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 8.70% 7.95%
01/26/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 1.00% 1.61%
01/26/21 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 9.00% 8.41%
01/26/21 Conf. Board Expectations 87.5
01/26/21 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 89 88.6
01/26/21 Conf. Board Present Situation 90.3
01/26/21 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 19 19
01/27/21 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.90%
01/27/21 Durable Goods Orders 1.00% 1.00%
01/27/21 Durables Ex Transportation 0.50% 0.40%
01/27/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 0.50%
01/27/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.60% 0.50%
01/27/21 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 0.25% 0.25%
01/27/21 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 0.00% 0.00%
01/27/21 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 0.10% 0.10%
01/28/21 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$84.0b -$84.8b
01/28/21 Retail Inventories MoM 0.60% 0.70%
01/28/21 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.50% 0.00%
01/28/21 GDP Annualized QoQ 4.20% 33.40%
01/28/21 Initial Jobless Claims 878k 900k
01/28/21 Continuing Claims 5100k 5054k
01/28/21 Personal Consumption 3.00% 41.00%
01/28/21 GDP Price Index 2.20% 3.50%
01/28/21 Core PCE QoQ 1.20% 3.40%
01/28/21 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.7
01/28/21 Leading Index 0.30% 0.60%
01/28/21 New Home Sales 866k 841k
01/28/21 New Home Sales MoM 2.90% -11.00%
01/28/21 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 12 14
01/28/21 Revisions: ISM Manufacturing & Services
01/29/21 Personal Income 0.10% -1.10%
01/29/21 Personal Spending -0.40% -0.40%
01/29/21 Employment Cost Index 0.50% 0.50%
01/29/21 Real Personal Spending -0.60% -0.40%
01/29/21 PCE Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.00%
01/29/21 PCE Deflator YoY 1.20% 1.10%
01/29/21 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.10% 0.00%
01/29/21 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.30% 1.40%
01/29/21 MNI Chicago PMI 58.3 59.5 58.7
01/29/21 Pending Home Sales MoM -0.50% -2.60%
01/29/21 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 16.00%
01/29/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 79.2 79.2
01/29/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 87.7
01/29/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 73.8
01/29/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.00%
01/29/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.70%

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