An improved tone in risk markets is contributing to a modest increase in Treasury yields out the curve. The pro-risk tone was not uniform in global markets, however. The Chinese central bank unexpectedly drained $12 billion in reserves and issued an official warning about asset bubbles. As a result of the liquidity drain, China’s overnight repo rate nearly doubled to 5.4%, and major equity indices throughout Asia declined. In other news, Janet Yellen was confirmed as Treasury Secretary yesterday by the Senate, becoming the first woman ever to hold the critical cabinet post. Her immediate priority would seemingly be soliciting more Congressional support for the White House’s Covid aid proposal.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/25/21 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.1 | 0.52 | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| 01/25/21 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 12 | 7 | 9.7 | — |
| 01/26/21 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.80% | 1.00% | 1.50% | — |
| 01/26/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 1.00% | 1.42% | 1.61% | 1.59% |
| 01/26/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 8.70% | 9.08% | 7.95% | 8.01% |
| 01/26/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | 8.85% | 9.49% | 8.41% | — |
| 01/26/21 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 89 | — | 88.6 | — |
| 01/26/21 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 87.5 | — |
| 01/26/21 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 90.3 | — |
| 01/26/21 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 19 | — | 19 | — |
| 01/27/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.90% | — |
| 01/27/21 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.00% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 01/27/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 01/27/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 01/27/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.60% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 01/27/21 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 0.25% | — | 0.25% | — |
| 01/27/21 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 01/27/21 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$84.0b | — | -$84.8b | — |
| 01/28/21 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 875k | — | 900k | — |
| 01/28/21 | Continuing Claims | 5100k | — | 5054k | — |
| 01/28/21 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 4.20% | — | 33.40% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Personal Consumption | 3.00% | — | 41.00% | — |
| 01/28/21 | GDP Price Index | 2.20% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.20% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 43.7 | — |
| 01/28/21 | Leading Index | 0.30% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 01/28/21 | New Home Sales | 866k | — | 841k | — |
| 01/28/21 | New Home Sales MoM | 3.00% | — | -11.00% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 12 | — | 14 | — |
| 01/28/21 | Revisions: ISM Manufacturing & Services | ||||
| 01/29/21 | Employment Cost Index | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 01/29/21 | Personal Income | 0.10% | — | -1.10% | — |
| 01/29/21 | Personal Spending | -0.40% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 01/29/21 | Real Personal Spending | -0.60% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 01/29/21 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 01/29/21 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.20% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 01/29/21 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 01/29/21 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.30% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 01/29/21 | MNI Chicago PMI | 58.5 | — | 59.5 | 58.7 |
| 01/29/21 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -0.50% | — | -2.60% | — |
| 01/29/21 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | 16.00% | — |
| 01/29/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 79.2 | — | 79.2 | — |
| 01/29/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 87.7 | — |
| 01/29/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 73.8 | — |
| 01/29/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 01/29/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
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