January 26, 2021 Headlines

An improved tone in risk markets is contributing to a modest increase in Treasury yields out the curve. The pro-risk tone was not uniform in global markets, however. The Chinese central bank unexpectedly drained $12 billion in reserves and issued an official warning about asset bubbles. As a result of the liquidity drain, China’s overnight repo rate nearly doubled to 5.4%, and major equity indices throughout Asia declined. In other news, Janet Yellen was confirmed as Treasury Secretary yesterday by the Senate, becoming the first woman ever to hold the critical cabinet post. Her immediate priority would seemingly be soliciting more Congressional support for the White House’s Covid aid proposal.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

01/25/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.10.520.270.31
01/25/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity1279.7
01/26/21FHFA House Price Index MoM0.80%1.00%1.50%
01/26/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.00%1.42%1.61%1.59%
01/26/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA8.70%9.08%7.95%8.01%
01/26/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA8.85%9.49%8.41%
01/26/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence8988.6
01/26/21Conf. Board Expectations87.5
01/26/21Conf. Board Present Situation90.3
01/26/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1919
01/27/21MBA Mortgage Applications-1.90%
01/27/21Durable Goods Orders1.00%1.00%
01/27/21Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.40%
01/27/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.50%
01/27/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%0.50%
01/27/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
01/27/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
01/27/21Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%
01/28/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$84.0b-$84.8b
01/28/21Retail Inventories MoM0.60%0.70%
01/28/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.00%
01/28/21Initial Jobless Claims875k900k
01/28/21Continuing Claims5100k5054k
01/28/21GDP Annualized QoQ4.20%33.40%
01/28/21Personal Consumption3.00%41.00%
01/28/21GDP Price Index2.20%3.50%
01/28/21Core PCE QoQ1.20%3.40%
01/28/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort43.7
01/28/21Leading Index0.30%0.60%
01/28/21New Home Sales866k841k
01/28/21New Home Sales MoM3.00%-11.00%
01/28/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1214
01/28/21Revisions: ISM Manufacturing & Services
01/29/21Employment Cost Index0.50%0.50%
01/29/21Personal Income0.10%-1.10%
01/29/21Personal Spending-0.40%-0.40%
01/29/21Real Personal Spending-0.60%-0.40%
01/29/21PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.00%
01/29/21PCE Deflator YoY1.20%1.10%
01/29/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.00%
01/29/21PCE Core Deflator YoY1.30%1.40%
01/29/21MNI Chicago PMI58.559.558.7
01/29/21Pending Home Sales MoM-0.50%-2.60%
01/29/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY16.00%
01/29/21U. of Mich. Sentiment79.279.2
01/29/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions87.7
01/29/21U. of Mich. Expectations73.8
01/29/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
01/29/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%

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