January 27, 2021 Headlines

A risk-off sentiment took hold in overnight trading and has pushed US equity futures into the red while Treasury yields declined across the curve. Disagreements between the EU and AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery as well new lockdown measures weighed on the market in the overnight session.

The MBA Mortgage Applications index showed a 4.1% decline last week with purchase apps down 4% and refis down 5%. The average 30-year rate ticked up by 3 bps to 2.95%. Through 1/22 the MBA 30-year rate has increased by 9 bps while the 10-year UST was up nearly double that, highlighting that mortgage rates may remain sticky given how wide the primary basis is.

The FOMC will have its policy meeting later today and afterwards Chairman Powell will speak. The market expects the Fed to leave policy unchanged and the Chairman Powell’s comments will echo his recent ones stating that the Fed is willing and able to help support the economy if it should stumble.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
01/25/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.10.520.270.31
01/25/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity1279.7
01/26/21FHFA House Price Index MoM0.80%1.00%1.50%
01/26/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.00%1.42%1.61%1.59%
01/26/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA8.70%9.08%7.95%8.01%
01/26/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA8.85%9.49%8.41%
01/26/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence8989.388.687.1
01/26/21Conf. Board Present Situation84.490.387.2
01/26/21Conf. Board Expectations92.587.587
01/26/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index191419
01/27/21MBA Mortgage Applications-4.10%-1.90%
01/27/21Durable Goods Orders1.00%0.20%1.00%1.20%
01/27/21Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.70%0.40%0.80%
01/27/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.60%0.50%1.00%
01/27/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%0.50%0.50%
01/27/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%
01/27/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%
01/27/21Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%
01/28/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$84.0b-$84.8b
01/28/21Retail Inventories MoM0.60%0.70%
01/28/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.00%
01/28/21Initial Jobless Claims875k900k
01/28/21Continuing Claims5088k5054k
01/28/21GDP Annualized QoQ4.20%33.40%
01/28/21Personal Consumption3.10%41.00%
01/28/21GDP Price Index2.20%3.50%
01/28/21Core PCE QoQ1.20%3.40%
01/28/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort43.7
01/28/21Leading Index0.30%0.60%
01/28/21New Home Sales866k841k
01/28/21New Home Sales MoM3.00%-11.00%
01/28/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity1314
01/28/21Revisions: ISM Manufacturing & Services
01/29/21Employment Cost Index0.50%0.50%
01/29/21Personal Income0.10%-1.10%
01/29/21Personal Spending-0.40%-0.40%
01/29/21Real Personal Spending-0.60%-0.40%
01/29/21PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.00%
01/29/21PCE Deflator YoY1.20%1.10%
01/29/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.00%
01/29/21PCE Core Deflator YoY1.30%1.40%
01/29/21MNI Chicago PMI58.559.558.7
01/29/21Pending Home Sales MoM-0.50%-2.60%
01/29/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY20.30%16.00%
01/29/21U. of Mich. Sentiment79.279.2
01/29/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions87.787.7
01/29/21U. of Mich. Expectations74.173.8
01/29/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%3.00%
01/29/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%

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