A risk-off sentiment took hold in overnight trading and has pushed US equity futures into the red while Treasury yields declined across the curve. Disagreements between the EU and AstraZeneca over vaccine delivery as well new lockdown measures weighed on the market in the overnight session.
The MBA Mortgage Applications index showed a 4.1% decline last week with purchase apps down 4% and refis down 5%. The average 30-year rate ticked up by 3 bps to 2.95%. Through 1/22 the MBA 30-year rate has increased by 9 bps while the 10-year UST was up nearly double that, highlighting that mortgage rates may remain sticky given how wide the primary basis is.
The FOMC will have its policy meeting later today and afterwards Chairman Powell will speak. The market expects the Fed to leave policy unchanged and the Chairman Powell’s comments will echo his recent ones stating that the Fed is willing and able to help support the economy if it should stumble.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/25/21 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.1 | 0.52 | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| 01/25/21 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 12 | 7 | 9.7 | — |
| 01/26/21 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.80% | 1.00% | 1.50% | — |
| 01/26/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 1.00% | 1.42% | 1.61% | 1.59% |
| 01/26/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 8.70% | 9.08% | 7.95% | 8.01% |
| 01/26/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | 8.85% | 9.49% | 8.41% | — |
| 01/26/21 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 89 | 89.3 | 88.6 | 87.1 |
| 01/26/21 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 84.4 | 90.3 | 87.2 |
| 01/26/21 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 92.5 | 87.5 | 87 |
| 01/26/21 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 19 | 14 | 19 | — |
| 01/27/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.10% | -1.90% | — |
| 01/27/21 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.00% | 0.20% | 1.00% | 1.20% |
| 01/27/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | 0.70% | 0.40% | 0.80% |
| 01/27/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | 0.60% | 0.50% | 1.00% |
| 01/27/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.60% | 0.50% | 0.50% | — |
| 01/27/21 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 0.25% | — | 0.25% | — |
| 01/27/21 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 01/27/21 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$84.0b | — | -$84.8b | — |
| 01/28/21 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 875k | — | 900k | — |
| 01/28/21 | Continuing Claims | 5088k | — | 5054k | — |
| 01/28/21 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 4.20% | — | 33.40% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Personal Consumption | 3.10% | — | 41.00% | — |
| 01/28/21 | GDP Price Index | 2.20% | — | 3.50% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.20% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 43.7 | — |
| 01/28/21 | Leading Index | 0.30% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 01/28/21 | New Home Sales | 866k | — | 841k | — |
| 01/28/21 | New Home Sales MoM | 3.00% | — | -11.00% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 13 | — | 14 | — |
| 01/28/21 | Revisions: ISM Manufacturing & Services | ||||
| 01/29/21 | Employment Cost Index | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 01/29/21 | Personal Income | 0.10% | — | -1.10% | — |
| 01/29/21 | Personal Spending | -0.40% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 01/29/21 | Real Personal Spending | -0.60% | — | -0.40% | — |
| 01/29/21 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 01/29/21 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.20% | — | 1.10% | — |
| 01/29/21 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 01/29/21 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.30% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 01/29/21 | MNI Chicago PMI | 58.5 | — | 59.5 | 58.7 |
| 01/29/21 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -0.50% | — | -2.60% | — |
| 01/29/21 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 20.30% | — | 16.00% | — |
| 01/29/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 79.2 | — | 79.2 | — |
| 01/29/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 87.7 | — | 87.7 | — |
| 01/29/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 74.1 | — | 73.8 | — |
| 01/29/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.90% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 01/29/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
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