January 28, 2020 Headlines

Treasuries continued to rally overnight on coronavirus concerns, but prices are now lower on the day ahead of today’s new supply of U.S. and European government debt. Global financial markets continue to focus on the virus outbreak in China, which is accelerating in the number of confirmed cases and deaths, but the head of the World Health Organization said he is confident in China’s ability to contain the issue. Headline durable goods orders were better than expected in December (+2.4% vs. 0.3% expected), but the underlying components of the report were less constructive. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft (“core orders”) fell 0.9% from the prior month (+0.2% expected). Core orders are used as a proxy for business investment, but to be fair, business investment has been weaker for much of the last year amid trade worries.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
1/27/2020New Home Sales730k694k719k697k
1/27/2020New Home Sales MoM1.50%-0.40%1.30%-1.10%
1/27/2020Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-2-0.2-3.2
1/28/2020Durable Goods Orders0.30%2.40%-2.10%-3.10%
1/28/2020Durables Ex Transportation0.30%-0.10%-0.10%-0.40%
1/28/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%-0.90%0.20%0.10%
1/28/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.20%-0.40%-0.30%
1/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA3.54%3.34%3.25%
1/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index212.56212.43212.24
1/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA2.40%2.55%2.23%2.22%
1/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.40%0.48%0.43%0.46%
1/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index218.68218.43218.42
1/28/2020Conf. Board Consumer Confidence128131.6126.5128.2
1/28/2020Conf. Board Expectations102.597.4100
1/28/2020Conf. Board Present Situation175.3170170.5
1/28/2020Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-320-5
1/29/2020MBA Mortgage Applications-1.20%
1/29/2020Advance Goods Trade Balance-$65.0b-$63.2b
1/29/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%-0.10%
1/29/2020Retail Inventories MoM0.10%-0.70%-0.80%
1/29/2020Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%1.20%
1/29/2020Pending Home Sales NSA YoY10.30%5.60%
1/29/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.75%1.75%
1/29/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.50%1.50%
1/29/2020Interest Rate on Excess Reserves1.55%1.55%
1/30/2020GDP Annualized QoQ2.10%2.10%
1/30/2020Personal Consumption2.00%3.20%
1/30/2020GDP Price Index1.80%1.80%
1/30/2020Core PCE QoQ1.60%2.10%
1/30/2020Initial Jobless Claims215k211k
1/30/2020Continuing Claims1738k1731k
1/30/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort66
1/31/2020PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%
1/31/2020Employment Cost Index0.70%0.70%
1/31/2020Personal Income0.30%0.50%
1/31/2020Personal Spending0.30%0.40%
1/31/2020Real Personal Spending0.10%0.30%
1/31/2020PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.20%
1/31/2020PCE Deflator YoY1.60%1.50%
1/31/2020PCE Core Deflator YoY1.60%1.60%
1/31/2020MNI Chicago PMI4948.948.2
1/31/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment99.199.1
1/31/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions115.8
1/31/2020U. of Mich. Expectations88.3
1/31/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%
1/31/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%

 

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