January 28, 2020 Headlines

Treasuries continued to rally overnight on coronavirus concerns, but prices are now lower on the day ahead of today’s new supply of U.S. and European government debt. Global financial markets continue to focus on the virus outbreak in China, which is accelerating in the number of confirmed cases and deaths, but the head of the World Health Organization said he is confident in China’s ability to contain the issue. Headline durable goods orders were better than expected in December (+2.4% vs. 0.3% expected), but the underlying components of the report were less constructive. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft (“core orders”) fell 0.9% from the prior month (+0.2% expected). Core orders are used as a proxy for business investment, but to be fair, business investment has been weaker for much of the last year amid trade worries.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
1/27/2020 New Home Sales 730k 694k 719k 697k
1/27/2020 New Home Sales MoM 1.50% -0.40% 1.30% -1.10%
1/27/2020 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity -2 -0.2 -3.2
1/28/2020 Durable Goods Orders 0.30% 2.40% -2.10% -3.10%
1/28/2020 Durables Ex Transportation 0.30% -0.10% -0.10% -0.40%
1/28/2020 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.20% -0.90% 0.20% 0.10%
1/28/2020 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.20% -0.40% -0.30%
1/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 3.54% 3.34% 3.25%
1/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 212.56 212.43 212.24
1/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 2.40% 2.55% 2.23% 2.22%
1/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.40% 0.48% 0.43% 0.46%
1/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 218.68 218.43 218.42
1/28/2020 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 128 131.6 126.5 128.2
1/28/2020 Conf. Board Expectations 102.5 97.4 100
1/28/2020 Conf. Board Present Situation 175.3 170 170.5
1/28/2020 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index -3 20 -5
1/29/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.20%
1/29/2020 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$65.0b -$63.2b
1/29/2020 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.10% -0.10%
1/29/2020 Retail Inventories MoM 0.10% -0.70% -0.80%
1/29/2020 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.50% 1.20%
1/29/2020 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 10.30% 5.60%
1/29/2020 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 1.75% 1.75%
1/29/2020 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 1.50% 1.50%
1/29/2020 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 1.55% 1.55%
1/30/2020 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.10% 2.10%
1/30/2020 Personal Consumption 2.00% 3.20%
1/30/2020 GDP Price Index 1.80% 1.80%
1/30/2020 Core PCE QoQ 1.60% 2.10%
1/30/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 211k
1/30/2020 Continuing Claims 1738k 1731k
1/30/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 66
1/31/2020 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.10% 0.10%
1/31/2020 Employment Cost Index 0.70% 0.70%
1/31/2020 Personal Income 0.30% 0.50%
1/31/2020 Personal Spending 0.30% 0.40%
1/31/2020 Real Personal Spending 0.10% 0.30%
1/31/2020 PCE Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.20%
1/31/2020 PCE Deflator YoY 1.60% 1.50%
1/31/2020 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.60% 1.60%
1/31/2020 MNI Chicago PMI 49 48.9 48.2
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. Sentiment 99.1 99.1
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 115.8
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. Expectations 88.3
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.50%
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%


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