January 28, 2020 Headlines

Treasuries continued to rally overnight on coronavirus concerns, but prices are now lower on the day ahead of today’s new supply of U.S. and European government debt. Global financial markets continue to focus on the virus outbreak in China, which is accelerating in the number of confirmed cases and deaths, but the head of the World Health Organization said he is confident in China’s ability to contain the issue. Headline durable goods orders were better than expected in December (+2.4% vs. 0.3% expected), but the underlying components of the report were less constructive. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft (“core orders”) fell 0.9% from the prior month (+0.2% expected). Core orders are used as a proxy for business investment, but to be fair, business investment has been weaker for much of the last year amid trade worries.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
1/27/2020 New Home Sales 730k 694k 719k 697k
1/27/2020 New Home Sales MoM 1.50% -0.40% 1.30% -1.10%
1/27/2020 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity -2 -0.2 -3.2
1/28/2020 Durable Goods Orders 0.30% 2.40% -2.10% -3.10%
1/28/2020 Durables Ex Transportation 0.30% -0.10% -0.10% -0.40%
1/28/2020 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.20% -0.90% 0.20% 0.10%
1/28/2020 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.20% -0.40% -0.30%
1/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 3.54% 3.34% 3.25%
1/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 212.56 212.43 212.24
1/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 2.40% 2.55% 2.23% 2.22%
1/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.40% 0.48% 0.43% 0.46%
1/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 218.68 218.43 218.42
1/28/2020 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 128 131.6 126.5 128.2
1/28/2020 Conf. Board Expectations 102.5 97.4 100
1/28/2020 Conf. Board Present Situation 175.3 170 170.5
1/28/2020 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index -3 20 -5
1/29/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.20%
1/29/2020 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$65.0b -$63.2b
1/29/2020 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.10% -0.10%
1/29/2020 Retail Inventories MoM 0.10% -0.70% -0.80%
1/29/2020 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.50% 1.20%
1/29/2020 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 10.30% 5.60%
1/29/2020 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 1.75% 1.75%
1/29/2020 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 1.50% 1.50%
1/29/2020 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 1.55% 1.55%
1/30/2020 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.10% 2.10%
1/30/2020 Personal Consumption 2.00% 3.20%
1/30/2020 GDP Price Index 1.80% 1.80%
1/30/2020 Core PCE QoQ 1.60% 2.10%
1/30/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 211k
1/30/2020 Continuing Claims 1738k 1731k
1/30/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 66
1/31/2020 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.10% 0.10%
1/31/2020 Employment Cost Index 0.70% 0.70%
1/31/2020 Personal Income 0.30% 0.50%
1/31/2020 Personal Spending 0.30% 0.40%
1/31/2020 Real Personal Spending 0.10% 0.30%
1/31/2020 PCE Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.20%
1/31/2020 PCE Deflator YoY 1.60% 1.50%
1/31/2020 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.60% 1.60%
1/31/2020 MNI Chicago PMI 49 48.9 48.2
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. Sentiment 99.1 99.1
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 115.8
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. Expectations 88.3
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.50%
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content. Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First. Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.