January 29, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are 2-3 bps lower to start the day, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.27%. The official statement from today’s FOMC meeting will be released at 2pm EST, with Jerome Powell’s press conference to follow shortly thereafter. There’s no expected change to the fed funds target range, but there is some speculation that the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate may be hiked by 5 bps to 1.60%. In the official statement, there’s unlikely to be a material reassessment of the Fed’s outlook. On the data front, the first estimate of Q4 GDP growth will be released tomorrow morning. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
1/29/2020MBA Mortgage Applications7.20%-1.20%
1/29/2020Advance Goods Trade Balance-$65.0b-$68.3b-$63.2b-$63.0b
1/29/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%-0.10%-0.10%0.10%
1/29/2020Retail Inventories MoM0.10%0.00%-0.70%-0.80%
1/29/2020Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%1.20%
1/29/2020Pending Home Sales NSA YoY10.30%5.60%
1/29/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.75%1.75%
1/29/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.50%1.50%
1/29/2020Interest Rate on Excess Reserves1.55%1.55%
1/30/2020GDP Annualized QoQ2.10%2.10%
1/30/2020Personal Consumption2.00%3.20%
1/30/2020GDP Price Index1.80%1.80%
1/30/2020Core PCE QoQ1.60%2.10%
1/30/2020Initial Jobless Claims215k211k
1/30/2020Continuing Claims1730k1731k
1/30/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort66
1/31/2020PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%
1/31/2020Employment Cost Index0.70%0.70%
1/31/2020Personal Income0.30%0.50%
1/31/2020Personal Spending0.30%0.40%
1/31/2020Real Personal Spending0.10%0.30%
1/31/2020PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.20%
1/31/2020PCE Deflator YoY1.60%1.50%
1/31/2020PCE Core Deflator YoY1.60%1.60%
1/31/2020MNI Chicago PMI4948.948.2
1/31/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment99.199.1
1/31/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions115.8
1/31/2020U. of Mich. Expectations88.3
1/31/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%
1/31/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%

 

 

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