January 29, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are 2-3 bps lower to start the day, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.27%. The official statement from today’s FOMC meeting will be released at 2pm EST, with Jerome Powell’s press conference to follow shortly thereafter. There’s no expected change to the fed funds target range, but there is some speculation that the interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate may be hiked by 5 bps to 1.60%. In the official statement, there’s unlikely to be a material reassessment of the Fed’s outlook. On the data front, the first estimate of Q4 GDP growth will be released tomorrow morning. 

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
1/29/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications 7.20% -1.20%
1/29/2020 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$65.0b -$68.3b -$63.2b -$63.0b
1/29/2020 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.10% -0.10% -0.10% 0.10%
1/29/2020 Retail Inventories MoM 0.10% 0.00% -0.70% -0.80%
1/29/2020 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.50% 1.20%
1/29/2020 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 10.30% 5.60%
1/29/2020 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 1.75% 1.75%
1/29/2020 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 1.50% 1.50%
1/29/2020 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 1.55% 1.55%
1/30/2020 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.10% 2.10%
1/30/2020 Personal Consumption 2.00% 3.20%
1/30/2020 GDP Price Index 1.80% 1.80%
1/30/2020 Core PCE QoQ 1.60% 2.10%
1/30/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 211k
1/30/2020 Continuing Claims 1730k 1731k
1/30/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 66
1/31/2020 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.10% 0.10%
1/31/2020 Employment Cost Index 0.70% 0.70%
1/31/2020 Personal Income 0.30% 0.50%
1/31/2020 Personal Spending 0.30% 0.40%
1/31/2020 Real Personal Spending 0.10% 0.30%
1/31/2020 PCE Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.20%
1/31/2020 PCE Deflator YoY 1.60% 1.50%
1/31/2020 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.60% 1.60%
1/31/2020 MNI Chicago PMI 49 48.9 48.2
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. Sentiment 99.1 99.1
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 115.8
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. Expectations 88.3
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.50%
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%



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