January 29, 2021 Headlines

The tone in global markets is mixed this morning, with equites continuing to struggle on ongoing concerns related to this week’s volatility tied to coordinated speculation by retail stock traders. Despite the softness in equity markets, Treasury yields are higher and steeper following a sell-off in German government debt (bunds). Bunds sold off after a European Central Bank official was sourced suggesting the central bank was unlikely to cut policy rates again in the current cycle because of limited benefits. There’s more positive news on the vaccine front today. In a 44,000-person study, Johnson & Johnson’s one-shot vaccine was 66% effective in preventing moderate to severe cases. However, it was much more effective in preventing severe infections (85%) and hospitalizations and deaths (100%).  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

01/25/21Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.10.520.270.31
01/25/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity1279.7
01/26/21FHFA House Price Index MoM0.80%1.00%1.50%
01/26/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.00%1.42%1.61%1.59%
01/26/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA8.70%9.08%7.95%8.01%
01/26/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA8.85%9.49%8.41%
01/26/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence8989.388.687.1
01/26/21Conf. Board Present Situation84.490.387.2
01/26/21Conf. Board Expectations92.587.587
01/26/21Richmond Fed Manufact. Index191419
01/27/21MBA Mortgage Applications-4.10%-1.90%
01/27/21Durable Goods Orders1.00%0.20%1.00%1.20%
01/27/21Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.70%0.40%0.80%
01/27/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.60%0.50%1.00%
01/27/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%0.50%0.50%
01/27/21FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)0.25%0.25%0.25%
01/27/21FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)0.00%0.00%0.00%
01/27/21Interest Rate on Excess Reserves0.10%0.10%0.10%
01/28/21Advance Goods Trade Balance-$84.0b-$82.5b-$84.8b-$85.5b
01/28/21Retail Inventories MoM0.60%1.00%0.70%0.80%
01/28/21Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.10%0.00%
01/28/21Initial Jobless Claims875k847k900k914k
01/28/21Continuing Claims5088k4771k5054k4974k
01/28/21GDP Annualized QoQ4.20%4.00%33.40%
01/28/21Personal Consumption3.10%2.50%41.00%
01/28/21GDP Price Index2.20%2.00%3.50%
01/28/21Core PCE QoQ1.20%1.40%3.40%
01/28/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort45.743.7
01/28/21Leading Index0.30%0.30%0.60%0.70%
01/28/21New Home Sales870k842k841k829k
01/28/21New Home Sales MoM3.50%1.60%-11.00%-12.60%
01/28/21Revisions: LEI
01/28/21Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity131714
01/28/21Revisions: ISM Manufacturing & Services
01/29/21Employment Cost Index0.50%0.70%0.50%
01/29/21Personal Income0.10%0.60%-1.10%-1.30%
01/29/21Personal Spending-0.40%-0.20%-0.40%-0.70%
01/29/21Real Personal Spending-0.60%-0.60%-0.40%-0.70%
01/29/21PCE Deflator MoM0.30%0.40%0.00%
01/29/21PCE Deflator YoY1.20%1.30%1.10%
01/29/21PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.30%0.00%
01/29/21PCE Core Deflator YoY1.30%1.50%1.40%
01/29/21MNI Chicago PMI58.559.558.7
01/29/21Pending Home Sales MoM-0.50%-2.60%
01/29/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY20.30%16.00%
01/29/21U. of Mich. Sentiment79.479.2
01/29/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions87.787.7
01/29/21U. of Mich. Expectations74.173.8
01/29/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%3.00%
01/29/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.70%

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