January 29, 2021 Headlines

The tone in global markets is mixed this morning, with equites continuing to struggle on ongoing concerns related to this week’s volatility tied to coordinated speculation by retail stock traders. Despite the softness in equity markets, Treasury yields are higher and steeper following a sell-off in German government debt (bunds). Bunds sold off after a European Central Bank official was sourced suggesting the central bank was unlikely to cut policy rates again in the current cycle because of limited benefits. There’s more positive news on the vaccine front today. In a 44,000-person study, Johnson & Johnson’s one-shot vaccine was 66% effective in preventing moderate to severe cases. However, it was much more effective in preventing severe infections (85%) and hospitalizations and deaths (100%).  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
01/25/21 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.1 0.52 0.27 0.31
01/25/21 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 12 7 9.7
01/26/21 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.80% 1.00% 1.50%
01/26/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 1.00% 1.42% 1.61% 1.59%
01/26/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 8.70% 9.08% 7.95% 8.01%
01/26/21 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 8.85% 9.49% 8.41%
01/26/21 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 89 89.3 88.6 87.1
01/26/21 Conf. Board Present Situation 84.4 90.3 87.2
01/26/21 Conf. Board Expectations 92.5 87.5 87
01/26/21 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 19 14 19
01/27/21 MBA Mortgage Applications -4.10% -1.90%
01/27/21 Durable Goods Orders 1.00% 0.20% 1.00% 1.20%
01/27/21 Durables Ex Transportation 0.50% 0.70% 0.40% 0.80%
01/27/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 0.60% 0.50% 1.00%
01/27/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.60% 0.50% 0.50%
01/27/21 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
01/27/21 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
01/27/21 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
01/28/21 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$84.0b -$82.5b -$84.8b -$85.5b
01/28/21 Retail Inventories MoM 0.60% 1.00% 0.70% 0.80%
01/28/21 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.50% 0.10% 0.00%
01/28/21 Initial Jobless Claims 875k 847k 900k 914k
01/28/21 Continuing Claims 5088k 4771k 5054k 4974k
01/28/21 GDP Annualized QoQ 4.20% 4.00% 33.40%
01/28/21 Personal Consumption 3.10% 2.50% 41.00%
01/28/21 GDP Price Index 2.20% 2.00% 3.50%
01/28/21 Core PCE QoQ 1.20% 1.40% 3.40%
01/28/21 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 45.7 43.7
01/28/21 Leading Index 0.30% 0.30% 0.60% 0.70%
01/28/21 New Home Sales 870k 842k 841k 829k
01/28/21 New Home Sales MoM 3.50% 1.60% -11.00% -12.60%
01/28/21 Revisions: LEI
01/28/21 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 13 17 14
01/28/21 Revisions: ISM Manufacturing & Services
01/29/21 Employment Cost Index 0.50% 0.70% 0.50%
01/29/21 Personal Income 0.10% 0.60% -1.10% -1.30%
01/29/21 Personal Spending -0.40% -0.20% -0.40% -0.70%
01/29/21 Real Personal Spending -0.60% -0.60% -0.40% -0.70%
01/29/21 PCE Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.40% 0.00%
01/29/21 PCE Deflator YoY 1.20% 1.30% 1.10%
01/29/21 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.10% 0.30% 0.00%
01/29/21 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.30% 1.50% 1.40%
01/29/21 MNI Chicago PMI 58.5 59.5 58.7
01/29/21 Pending Home Sales MoM -0.50% -2.60%
01/29/21 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 20.30% 16.00%
01/29/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 79.4 79.2
01/29/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 87.7 87.7
01/29/21 U. of Mich. Expectations 74.1 73.8
01/29/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.90% 3.00%
01/29/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.70%

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