The tone in global markets is mixed this morning, with equites continuing to struggle on ongoing concerns related to this week’s volatility tied to coordinated speculation by retail stock traders. Despite the softness in equity markets, Treasury yields are higher and steeper following a sell-off in German government debt (bunds). Bunds sold off after a European Central Bank official was sourced suggesting the central bank was unlikely to cut policy rates again in the current cycle because of limited benefits. There’s more positive news on the vaccine front today. In a 44,000-person study, Johnson & Johnson’s one-shot vaccine was 66% effective in preventing moderate to severe cases. However, it was much more effective in preventing severe infections (85%) and hospitalizations and deaths (100%).
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/25/21 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.1 | 0.52 | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| 01/25/21 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 12 | 7 | 9.7 | — |
| 01/26/21 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.80% | 1.00% | 1.50% | — |
| 01/26/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 1.00% | 1.42% | 1.61% | 1.59% |
| 01/26/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 8.70% | 9.08% | 7.95% | 8.01% |
| 01/26/21 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | 8.85% | 9.49% | 8.41% | — |
| 01/26/21 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 89 | 89.3 | 88.6 | 87.1 |
| 01/26/21 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 84.4 | 90.3 | 87.2 |
| 01/26/21 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 92.5 | 87.5 | 87 |
| 01/26/21 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 19 | 14 | 19 | — |
| 01/27/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.10% | -1.90% | — |
| 01/27/21 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.00% | 0.20% | 1.00% | 1.20% |
| 01/27/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.50% | 0.70% | 0.40% | 0.80% |
| 01/27/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.50% | 0.60% | 0.50% | 1.00% |
| 01/27/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.60% | 0.50% | 0.50% | — |
| 01/27/21 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | — |
| 01/27/21 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | — |
| 01/27/21 | Interest Rate on Excess Reserves | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$84.0b | -$82.5b | -$84.8b | -$85.5b |
| 01/28/21 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.60% | 1.00% | 0.70% | 0.80% |
| 01/28/21 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.00% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 875k | 847k | 900k | 914k |
| 01/28/21 | Continuing Claims | 5088k | 4771k | 5054k | 4974k |
| 01/28/21 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 4.20% | 4.00% | 33.40% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Personal Consumption | 3.10% | 2.50% | 41.00% | — |
| 01/28/21 | GDP Price Index | 2.20% | 2.00% | 3.50% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Core PCE QoQ | 1.20% | 1.40% | 3.40% | — |
| 01/28/21 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 45.7 | 43.7 | — |
| 01/28/21 | Leading Index | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.60% | 0.70% |
| 01/28/21 | New Home Sales | 870k | 842k | 841k | 829k |
| 01/28/21 | New Home Sales MoM | 3.50% | 1.60% | -11.00% | -12.60% |
| 01/28/21 | Revisions: LEI | ||||
| 01/28/21 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 13 | 17 | 14 | — |
| 01/28/21 | Revisions: ISM Manufacturing & Services | ||||
| 01/29/21 | Employment Cost Index | 0.50% | 0.70% | 0.50% | — |
| 01/29/21 | Personal Income | 0.10% | 0.60% | -1.10% | -1.30% |
| 01/29/21 | Personal Spending | -0.40% | -0.20% | -0.40% | -0.70% |
| 01/29/21 | Real Personal Spending | -0.60% | -0.60% | -0.40% | -0.70% |
| 01/29/21 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.00% | — |
| 01/29/21 | PCE Deflator YoY | 1.20% | 1.30% | 1.10% | — |
| 01/29/21 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.00% | — |
| 01/29/21 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 1.30% | 1.50% | 1.40% | — |
| 01/29/21 | MNI Chicago PMI | 58.5 | — | 59.5 | 58.7 |
| 01/29/21 | Pending Home Sales MoM | -0.50% | — | -2.60% | — |
| 01/29/21 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 20.30% | — | 16.00% | — |
| 01/29/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 79.4 | — | 79.2 | — |
| 01/29/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 87.7 | — | 87.7 | — |
| 01/29/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 74.1 | — | 73.8 | — |
| 01/29/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.90% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 01/29/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
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