Happy New Year! Treasury prices are lower on the first trading session of 2018 following comments from the head of the ECB’s quantitative easing program. Benoit Coeure told a Chinese financial magazine that he sees “a reasonable chance” that the current $3.06 trillion bond-buying program will not be extended again when it expires in September given the central bank’s outlook for inflation. Global equity markets are mixed (Hang Seng +1.99%, Nikkei -0.08%, Euro Stoxx -0.61%), and U.S. equity futures are pointing to a stronger open (S&P 500 futures +0.41%).

The December jobs report will highlight this week’s economic calendar, and investors will once again be focusing on the wage growth data within the establishment survey. While the national wage growth data has generally been disappointing, a Wall Street Journal article this morning highlights the fact that city-level wage data in areas with the lowest unemployment rates are beginning to see an uptick in wage growth, particularly in cities with jobless rates near or below 3%.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
01/02/2018 Markit US Manufacturing PMI5555.155
01/03/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-4.90%
01/03/2018Construction Spending MoM0.50%1.40%
01/03/2018ISM Manufacturing58.258.2
01/03/2018ISM Prices Paid64.565.5
01/03/2018ISM New Orders64
01/03/2018ISM Employment59.7
01/03/2018FOMC Meeting Minutes
01/03/2018Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.50m17.35m
01/03/2018Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales13.35m13.38m
01/04/2018Challenger Job Cuts YoY30.10%
01/04/2018ADP Employment Change190k190k
01/04/2018Initial Jobless Claims242k245k
01/04/2018Continuing Claims1943k
01/04/2018Markit US Services PMI52.552.4
01/04/2018Markit US Composite PMI53
01/04/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort52.4
01/05/2018Change in Nonfarm Payrolls190k228k
01/05/2018Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
01/05/2018Change in Private Payrolls184k221k
01/05/2018Change in Manufact. Payrolls20k31k
01/05/2018Unemployment Rate4.10%4.10%
01/05/2018Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%
01/05/2018Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.50%2.50%
01/05/2018Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
01/05/2018Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%
01/05/2018Underemployment Rate8.00%
01/05/2018Trade Balance-$49.8b-$48.7b
01/05/2018Revisions: Seasonally Adjusted Household Survey data
01/05/2018ISM Non-Manf. Composite57.557.4
01/05/2018Factory Orders1.10%-0.10%
01/05/2018Factory Orders Ex Trans0.80%
01/05/2018Durable Goods Orders1.30%
01/05/2018Durables Ex Transportation-0.10%
01/05/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.10%
01/05/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%
01/08/2018Consumer Credit$17.750b$20.519b
01/09/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism107.5
01/09/2018JOLTS Job Openings5996