Weaker economic data from China sparked more demand for Treasuries overnight, and U.S. stocks are poised for another poor open. Yields are lower across the curve, with the 10-year note yield down to 2.65% for the first time since January 2018. In China, both measures of manufacturing PMI fell below 50 (numbers below 50 indicate contraction in activity), with the Caixin reading at the lowest level since May 2017. This data adds to market concerns of slowing global economic growth at a time when investors are already somewhat skittish. The federal government remains shutdown, and President Trump has invited Congressional leaders to the White House today to negotiate a solution. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the December jobs report on Friday. A softer than expected jobs report could boost stocks and other risk assets if it’s perceived to be an excuse for Fed leaders to pause on rate hikes in the near future.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior |
| 12/31 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | 15 | -5.1 | 17.6 |
| 01/02 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 53.9 | — | 53.9 |
| 01/03 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | — |
| 01/03 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 51.50% |
| 01/03 | ADP Employment Change | 180k | — | 179k |
| 01/03 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | — | 216k |
| 01/03 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1701k |
| 01/03 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 59.4 |
| 01/03 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% |
| 01/03 | ISM Manufacturing | 57.6 | — | 59.3 |
| 01/03 | ISM Employment | — | — | 58.4 |
| 01/03 | ISM Prices Paid | 57.8 | — | 60.7 |
| 01/03 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 62.1 |
| 01/03 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.21m | — | 17.40m |
| 01/03 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$76.0b | — | -$77.2b |
| 01/03 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.80% |
| 01/03 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.90% |
| 01/03 | New Home Sales | 568k | — | 544k |
| 01/03 | New Home Sales MoM | 4.50% | — | -8.90% |
| 01/04 | Revisions: Seasonally Adjusted Household Survey data | |||
| 01/04 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 180k | — | 155k |
| 01/04 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — |
| 01/04 | Change in Private Payrolls | 185k | — | 161k |
| 01/04 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 20k | — | 27k |
| 01/04 | Unemployment Rate | 3.70% | — | 3.70% |
| 01/04 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% |
| 01/04 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.00% | — | 3.10% |
| 01/04 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.4 |
| 01/04 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | 62.90% |
| 01/04 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.60% |
| 01/04 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 53.6 |
| 01/04 | Markit US Services PMI | 53.4 | — | 53.4 |