Weaker economic data from China sparked more demand for Treasuries overnight, and U.S. stocks are poised for another poor open.  Yields are lower across the curve, with the 10-year note yield down to 2.65% for the first time since January 2018. In China, both measures of manufacturing PMI fell below 50 (numbers below 50 indicate contraction in activity), with the Caixin reading at the lowest level since May 2017. This data adds to market concerns of slowing global economic growth at a time when investors are already somewhat skittish. The federal government remains shutdown, and President Trump has invited Congressional leaders to the White House today to negotiate a solution. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the December jobs report on Friday. A softer than expected jobs report could boost stocks and other risk assets if it’s perceived to be an excuse for Fed leaders to pause on rate hikes in the near future.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


12/31Dallas Fed Manf. Activity15-5.117.6
01/02Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.953.9
01/03MBA Mortgage Applications
01/03Challenger Job Cuts YoY51.50%
01/03ADP Employment Change180k179k
01/03Initial Jobless Claims220k216k
01/03Continuing Claims1701k
01/03Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.4
01/03Construction Spending MoM0.30%-0.10%
01/03ISM Manufacturing57.659.3
01/03ISM Employment58.4
01/03ISM Prices Paid57.860.7
01/03ISM New Orders62.1
01/03Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.21m17.40m
01/03Advance Goods Trade Balance-$76.0b-$77.2b
01/03Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.80%
01/03Retail Inventories MoM0.90%
01/03New Home Sales568k544k
01/03New Home Sales MoM4.50%-8.90%
01/04Revisions: Seasonally Adjusted Household Survey data
01/04Change in Nonfarm Payrolls180k155k
01/04Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
01/04Change in Private Payrolls185k161k
01/04Change in Manufact. Payrolls20k27k
01/04Unemployment Rate3.70%3.70%
01/04Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%
01/04Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%3.10%
01/04Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.4
01/04Labor Force Participation Rate62.90%
01/04Underemployment Rate7.60%
01/04Markit US Composite PMI53.6
01/04Markit US Services PMI53.453.4