The Treasury curve bull flattened overnight in response to weak UK construction data, while oil prices stayed above $60 as the market has fears that the protests in Iran could disrupt production. Mortgage applications rose by 0.7% last week according the MBA’s US Mortgage Index, with the increase driven by an increase in refinancing activity rather than purchases. This afternoon the Fed will release the minutes from the December FOMC meeting.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/02 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55 | 55.1 | 55 | — |
| 01/03 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 0.70% | -3.50% | — |
| 01/03 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.50% | 0.80% | 1.40% | 0.90% |
| 01/03 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.2 | 59.7 | 58.2 | — |
| 01/03 | ISM Prices Paid | 64.5 | 69 | 65.5 | — |
| 01/03 | ISM New Orders | — | 69.4 | 64 | — |
| 01/03 | ISM Employment | — | 57 | 59.7 | — |
| 01/03 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 01/03 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.50m | — | 17.35m | 17.40m |
| 01/03 | Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales | 13.35m | — | 13.38m | 13.46m |
| 01/04 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 30.10% | — |
| 01/04 | ADP Employment Change | 190k | — | 190k | — |
| 01/04 | Initial Jobless Claims | 242k | — | 245k | — |
| 01/04 | Continuing Claims | 1925k | — | 1943k | — |
| 01/04 | Markit US Services PMI | 52.5 | — | 52.4 | — |
| 01/04 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 53 | — |
| 01/04 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 52.4 | — |
| 01/05 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 190k | — | 228k | — |
| 01/05 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 01/05 | Change in Private Payrolls | 185k | — | 221k | — |
| 01/05 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 20k | — | 31k | — |
| 01/05 | Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 01/05 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 01/05 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.50% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 01/05 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 01/05 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | 62.70% | — |
| 01/05 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 8.00% | — |
| 01/05 | Trade Balance | -$50.0b | — | -$48.7b | — |
| 01/05 | Revisions: Seasonally Adjusted Household Survey data | ||||
| 01/05 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | 57.5 | — | 57.4 | — |
| 01/05 | Factory Orders | 1.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 01/05 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 01/05 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 1.30% | — |
| 01/05 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 01/05 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 01/05 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.30% | — |