The Treasury curve opened this morning essentially where it closed yesterday afternoon with the 10-year sitting right at 2.70%; while in the overnight session rates rallied as yield buyers added duration. The dollar continued its slide overnight ahead of tonight’s State of the Union address as well as tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. The market will be watching this evening’s address to see if the President reveals any details of his long awaited infrastructure spending plan.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/30 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index | — | 204.21 | 203.84 | 203.71 |
| 01/30 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.60% | 0.75% | 0.70% | — |
| 01/30 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.30% | 6.41% | 6.38% | 6.32% |
| 01/30 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index | — | 195.94 | 195.63 | 195.48 |
| 01/30 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | 6.21% | 6.17% | 6.10% |
| 01/30 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 123 | 125.4 | 122.1 | 123.1 |
| 01/30 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | 155.3 | 156.6 | 156.5 |
| 01/30 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | 105.5 | 99.1 | 100.8 |
| 01/31 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 4.50% | — |
| 01/31 | ADP Employment Change | 183k | — | 250k | — |
| 01/31 | Employment Cost Index | 0.60% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 01/31 | Chicago Purchasing Manager | 64 | — | 67.6 | 67.8 |
| 01/31 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 01/31 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | 2.70% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 01/31 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 1.50% | — | 1.50% | — |
| 01/31 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 1.25% | — | 1.25% | — |
| 02/01 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | -3.60% | — |
| 02/01 | Nonfarm Productivity | 0.80% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 02/01 | Unit Labor Costs | 0.90% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 02/01 | Initial Jobless Claims | 235k | — | 233k | — |
| 02/01 | Continuing Claims | 1929k | — | 1937k | — |
| 02/01 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 53.7 | — |
| 02/01 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 55.5 | — | 55.5 | — |
| 02/01 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 02/01 | ISM Manufacturing | 58.6 | — | 59.7 | 59.3 |
| 02/01 | ISM Employment | — | — | 57 | 58.1 |
| 02/01 | ISM Prices Paid | 68.8 | — | 69 | — |
| 02/01 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 69.4 | 67.4 |
| 02/01 | Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales | 13.45m | — | 13.72m | — |
| 02/01 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.25m | — | 17.76m | — |
| 02/02 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 180k | — | 148k | — |
| 02/02 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -9k | — |
| 02/02 | Change in Private Payrolls | 181k | — | 146k | — |
| 02/02 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 20k | — | 25k | — |
| 02/02 | Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 02/02 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 8.10% | — |
| 02/02 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 02/02 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 02/02 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.5 | — | 34.5 | — |
| 02/02 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | 62.70% | — |
| 02/02 | Factory Orders | 1.50% | — | 1.30% | — |
| 02/02 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 02/02 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 95 | — | 94.4 | — |
| 02/02 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 02/02 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 109.2 | — |
| 02/02 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 02/02 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 84.8 | — |
| 02/02 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.30% | — |
| 02/02 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 02/02 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.60% | — |
| 02/02 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 02/05 | Markit US Services PMI | — | — | 53.3 | — |
| 02/05 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 53.8 | — |
| 02/05 | ISM Non-Manf. Composite | 56.5 | — | 55.9 | 56 |
| 02/05-02/09 | MBA Mortgage Foreclosures | — | — | 1.23% | — |
| 02/05-02/09 | Mortgage Delinquencies | — | — | 4.88% | — |
| 02/06 | Trade Balance | -$52.2b | — | -$50.5b | — |
| 02/06 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 5879 | — |