The Treasury curve opened this morning essentially where it closed yesterday afternoon with the 10-year sitting right at 2.70%; while in the overnight session rates rallied as yield buyers added duration. The dollar continued its slide overnight ahead of tonight’s State of the Union address as well as tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. The market will be watching this evening’s address to see if the President reveals any details of his long awaited infrastructure spending plan.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
01/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 204.21 203.84 203.71
01/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.60% 0.75% 0.70%
01/30 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 6.30% 6.41% 6.38% 6.32%
01/30 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 195.94 195.63 195.48
01/30 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 6.21% 6.17% 6.10%
01/30 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 123 125.4 122.1 123.1
01/30 Conf. Board Present Situation 155.3 156.6 156.5
01/30 Conf. Board Expectations 105.5 99.1 100.8
01/31 MBA Mortgage Applications 4.50%
01/31 ADP Employment Change 183k 250k
01/31 Employment Cost Index 0.60% 0.70%
01/31 Chicago Purchasing Manager 64 67.6 67.8
01/31 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.50% 0.20%
01/31 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 2.70% 0.60%
01/31 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 1.50% 1.50%
01/31 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 1.25% 1.25%
02/01 Challenger Job Cuts YoY -3.60%
02/01 Nonfarm Productivity 0.80% 3.00%
02/01 Unit Labor Costs 0.90% -0.20%
02/01 Initial Jobless Claims 235k 233k
02/01 Continuing Claims 1929k 1937k
02/01 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 53.7
02/01 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 55.5 55.5
02/01 Construction Spending MoM 0.40% 0.80%
02/01 ISM Manufacturing 58.6 59.7 59.3
02/01 ISM Employment 57 58.1
02/01 ISM Prices Paid 68.8 69
02/01 ISM New Orders 69.4 67.4
02/01 Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales 13.45m 13.72m
02/01 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 17.25m 17.76m
02/02 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 180k 148k
02/02 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision -9k
02/02 Change in Private Payrolls 181k 146k
02/02 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 20k 25k
02/02 Unemployment Rate 4.10% 4.10%
02/02 Underemployment Rate 8.10%
02/02 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% 0.30%
02/02 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 2.60% 2.50%
02/02 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.5 34.5
02/02 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.70%
02/02 Factory Orders 1.50% 1.30%
02/02 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.80%
02/02 U. of Mich. Sentiment 95 94.4
02/02 Durable Goods Orders 2.90%
02/02 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 109.2
02/02 Durables Ex Transportation 0.60%
02/02 U. of Mich. Expectations 84.8
02/02 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -0.30%
02/02 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.80%
02/02 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.60%
02/02 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%
02/05 Markit US Services PMI 53.3
02/05 Markit US Composite PMI 53.8
02/05 ISM Non-Manf. Composite 56.5 55.9 56
02/05-02/09 MBA Mortgage Foreclosures 1.23%
02/05-02/09 Mortgage Delinquencies 4.88%
02/06 Trade Balance -$52.2b -$50.5b
02/06 JOLTS Job Openings 5879