The Treasury curve opened this morning essentially where it closed yesterday afternoon with the 10-year sitting right at 2.70%; while in the overnight session rates rallied as yield buyers added duration. The dollar continued its slide overnight ahead of tonight’s State of the Union address as well as tomorrow’s FOMC meeting. The market will be watching this evening’s address to see if the President reveals any details of his long awaited infrastructure spending plan.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
01/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index204.21203.84203.71
01/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.60%0.75%0.70%
01/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.30%6.41%6.38%6.32%
01/30S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index195.94195.63195.48
01/30S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.21%6.17%6.10%
01/30Conf. Board Consumer Confidence123125.4122.1123.1
01/30Conf. Board Present Situation155.3156.6156.5
01/30Conf. Board Expectations105.599.1100.8
01/31MBA Mortgage Applications4.50%
01/31ADP Employment Change183k250k
01/31Employment Cost Index0.60%0.70%
01/31Chicago Purchasing Manager6467.667.8
01/31Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%0.20%
01/31Pending Home Sales NSA YoY2.70%0.60%
01/31FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.50%1.50%
01/31FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.25%1.25%
02/01Challenger Job Cuts YoY-3.60%
02/01Nonfarm Productivity0.80%3.00%
02/01Unit Labor Costs0.90%-0.20%
02/01Initial Jobless Claims235k233k
02/01Continuing Claims1929k1937k
02/01Bloomberg Consumer Comfort53.7
02/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.555.5
02/01Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.80%
02/01ISM Manufacturing58.659.759.3
02/01ISM Employment5758.1
02/01ISM Prices Paid68.869
02/01ISM New Orders69.467.4
02/01Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales13.45m13.72m
02/01Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.25m17.76m
02/02Change in Nonfarm Payrolls180k148k
02/02Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-9k
02/02Change in Private Payrolls181k146k
02/02Change in Manufact. Payrolls20k25k
02/02Unemployment Rate4.10%4.10%
02/02Underemployment Rate8.10%
02/02Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.30%
02/02Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.60%2.50%
02/02Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
02/02Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%
02/02Factory Orders1.50%1.30%
02/02Factory Orders Ex Trans0.80%
02/02U. of Mich. Sentiment9594.4
02/02Durable Goods Orders2.90%
02/02U. of Mich. Current Conditions109.2
02/02Durables Ex Transportation0.60%
02/02U. of Mich. Expectations84.8
02/02Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.30%
02/02U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
02/02Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%
02/02U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
02/05Markit US Services PMI53.3
02/05Markit US Composite PMI53.8
02/05ISM Non-Manf. Composite56.555.956
02/05-02/09MBA Mortgage Foreclosures1.23%
02/05-02/09Mortgage Delinquencies4.88%
02/06Trade Balance-$52.2b-$50.5b
02/06JOLTS Job Openings5879