January 30, 2020 Headlines

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ended its two-day meeting by deciding unanimously to leave the target range unchanged at 1.5%-1.75%. For the moment, the committee remains entrenched in the current policy outlook baring a “material reassessment” of the outlook. In terms of the official statement, there was only a slight change to the wording in reference to consumer spending and inflation. After previously being described as “strong”, consumer spending changed to a “moderate” pace and inflation was viewed as “returning to” the FOMC’s objective. While the target range remained unchanged, the FOMC adjusted the Interest on Excess Reserves higher by 5bps to 1.60% and extended repo operations through at least April.

In the overnight session, US Treasuries continued to rally due to lingering concerns surrounding the coronavirus. However, prices have moved off the session highs and yields now sit only 1bps lower following the market’s first look at Q4 GDP. The headline number showed economic growth remained constant at 2.1%, matching the output in the 3Q and slightly exceeding consensus expectations. When looking at the individual factors, personal consumption eroded to 1.8% compared to 3.2% the previous quarter and PCE, the FOMCs primary measure to gauge inflation, decelerated to 1.3%.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
1/27/2020 New Home Sales 730k 694k 719k 697k
1/27/2020 New Home Sales MoM 1.50% -0.40% 1.30% -1.10%
1/27/2020 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity -2 -0.2 -3.2
1/28/2020 Durable Goods Orders 0.30% 2.40% -2.10% -3.10%
1/28/2020 Durables Ex Transportation 0.30% -0.10% -0.10% -0.40%
1/28/2020 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.20% -0.90% 0.20% 0.10%
1/28/2020 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.20% -0.40% -0.30%
1/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 3.50% 3.54% 3.34% 3.25%
1/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 212.56 212.43 212.24
1/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 2.40% 2.55% 2.23% 2.22%
1/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.40% 0.48% 0.43% 0.46%
1/28/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 218.68 218.43 218.42
1/28/2020 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 128 131.6 126.5 128.2
1/28/2020 Conf. Board Expectations 102.5 97.4 100
1/28/2020 Conf. Board Present Situation 175.3 170 170.5
1/28/2020 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index -3 20 -5
1/29/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications 7.20% -1.20%
1/29/2020 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$65.0b -$68.3b -$63.2b -$63.0b
1/29/2020 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.10% -0.10% -0.10% 0.10%
1/29/2020 Retail Inventories MoM 0.10% 0.00% -0.70% -0.80%
1/29/2020 Pending Home Sales MoM 0.50% -4.90% 1.20%
1/29/2020 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY 10.30% 6.80% 5.60%
1/29/2020 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 1.75% 1.75% 1.75%
1/29/2020 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
1/29/2020 Interest Rate on Excess Reserves 1.55% 1.60% 1.55%
1/30/2020 GDP Annualized QoQ 2.00% 2.10% 2.10%
1/30/2020 Personal Consumption 2.00% 1.80% 3.20%
1/30/2020 GDP Price Index 1.80% 1.40% 1.80%
1/30/2020 Core PCE QoQ 1.60% 1.30% 2.10%
1/30/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 216k 211k 223k
1/30/2020 Continuing Claims 1730k 1703k 1731k 1747k
1/30/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 66
1/31/2020 Personal Income 0.30% 0.50%
1/31/2020 Personal Spending 0.30% 0.40%
1/31/2020 Real Personal Spending 0.10% 0.30%
1/31/2020 PCE Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.20%
1/31/2020 PCE Deflator YoY 1.60% 1.50%
1/31/2020 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.10% 0.10%
1/31/2020 PCE Core Deflator YoY 1.60% 1.60%
1/31/2020 Employment Cost Index 0.70% 0.70%
1/31/2020 MNI Chicago PMI 49 48.9 48.2
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. Sentiment 99.1 99.1
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 115.8
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. Expectations 88.3
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.50%
1/31/2020 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%




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