January 30, 2020 Headlines

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ended its two-day meeting by deciding unanimously to leave the target range unchanged at 1.5%-1.75%. For the moment, the committee remains entrenched in the current policy outlook baring a “material reassessment” of the outlook. In terms of the official statement, there was only a slight change to the wording in reference to consumer spending and inflation. After previously being described as “strong”, consumer spending changed to a “moderate” pace and inflation was viewed as “returning to” the FOMC’s objective. While the target range remained unchanged, the FOMC adjusted the Interest on Excess Reserves higher by 5bps to 1.60% and extended repo operations through at least April.

In the overnight session, US Treasuries continued to rally due to lingering concerns surrounding the coronavirus. However, prices have moved off the session highs and yields now sit only 1bps lower following the market’s first look at Q4 GDP. The headline number showed economic growth remained constant at 2.1%, matching the output in the 3Q and slightly exceeding consensus expectations. When looking at the individual factors, personal consumption eroded to 1.8% compared to 3.2% the previous quarter and PCE, the FOMCs primary measure to gauge inflation, decelerated to 1.3%.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

1/27/2020New Home Sales730k694k719k697k
1/27/2020New Home Sales MoM1.50%-0.40%1.30%-1.10%
1/27/2020Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-2-0.2-3.2
1/28/2020Durable Goods Orders0.30%2.40%-2.10%-3.10%
1/28/2020Durables Ex Transportation0.30%-0.10%-0.10%-0.40%
1/28/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%-0.90%0.20%0.10%
1/28/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.20%-0.40%-0.30%
1/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA3.50%3.54%3.34%3.25%
1/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index212.56212.43212.24
1/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA2.40%2.55%2.23%2.22%
1/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.40%0.48%0.43%0.46%
1/28/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index218.68218.43218.42
1/28/2020Conf. Board Consumer Confidence128131.6126.5128.2
1/28/2020Conf. Board Expectations102.597.4100
1/28/2020Conf. Board Present Situation175.3170170.5
1/28/2020Richmond Fed Manufact. Index-320-5
1/29/2020MBA Mortgage Applications7.20%-1.20%
1/29/2020Advance Goods Trade Balance-$65.0b-$68.3b-$63.2b-$63.0b
1/29/2020Wholesale Inventories MoM0.10%-0.10%-0.10%0.10%
1/29/2020Retail Inventories MoM0.10%0.00%-0.70%-0.80%
1/29/2020Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%-4.90%1.20%
1/29/2020Pending Home Sales NSA YoY10.30%6.80%5.60%
1/29/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.75%1.75%1.75%
1/29/2020FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.50%1.50%1.50%
1/29/2020Interest Rate on Excess Reserves1.55%1.60%1.55%
1/30/2020GDP Annualized QoQ2.00%2.10%2.10%
1/30/2020Personal Consumption2.00%1.80%3.20%
1/30/2020GDP Price Index1.80%1.40%1.80%
1/30/2020Core PCE QoQ1.60%1.30%2.10%
1/30/2020Initial Jobless Claims215k216k211k223k
1/30/2020Continuing Claims1730k1703k1731k1747k
1/30/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort66
1/31/2020Personal Income0.30%0.50%
1/31/2020Personal Spending0.30%0.40%
1/31/2020Real Personal Spending0.10%0.30%
1/31/2020PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.20%
1/31/2020PCE Deflator YoY1.60%1.50%
1/31/2020PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%
1/31/2020PCE Core Deflator YoY1.60%1.60%
1/31/2020Employment Cost Index0.70%0.70%
1/31/2020MNI Chicago PMI4948.948.2
1/31/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment99.199.1
1/31/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions115.8
1/31/2020U. of Mich. Expectations88.3
1/31/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%
1/31/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%




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