It was a somewhat choppy overnight session for Treasury futures, with prices initially lower when Asian markets opened, but Treasuries caught a better bid as the session progressed on a mixture of dovish comments from the Bank of Japan and month-end buying (rebalancing).  Regarding the latter, the market has been expecting more month-end demand for longer Treasuries due to pension managers rebalancing portfolios amid the big rally in equities this month (need to maintain required asset allocations). However, nothing much has happened on that front up until today, and what we have seen so far has been relatively mild. The FOMC will release its official statement at 2pm ET today, and it will be Janet Yellen’s last meeting as Fed Chair. While there is effectively zero expectation in the markets for a rate hike today, some will be focused more on whether or not the Fed upgrades its near-term economic assessment in the statement.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
01/29Personal Income0.30%0.40%0.30%
01/29Personal Spending0.40%0.40%0.60%0.80%
01/29Real Personal Spending0.40%0.30%0.40%0.50%
01/29PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%0.20%
01/29PCE Deflator YoY1.70%1.70%1.80%
01/29PCE Core MoM0.20%0.20%0.10%
01/29PCE Core YoY1.50%1.50%1.50%
01/29Dallas Fed Manf. Activity25.433.429.7
01/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index204.21203.84203.71
01/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.60%0.75%0.70%
01/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA6.30%6.41%6.38%6.32%
01/30S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index195.94195.63195.48
01/30S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.21%6.17%6.10%
01/30Conf. Board Consumer Confidence123125.4122.1123.1
01/30Conf. Board Present Situation155.3156.6156.5
01/30Conf. Board Expectations105.599.1100.8
01/31MBA Mortgage Applications-2.60%4.50%
01/31ADP Employment Change185k234k250k242k
01/31Employment Cost Index0.60%0.60%0.70%
01/31Chicago Purchasing Manager6465.767.667.8
01/31Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%0.50%0.20%0.30%
01/31Pending Home Sales NSA YoY1.70%-1.80%0.60%
01/31FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.50%1.50%
01/31FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.25%1.25%
02/01Challenger Job Cuts YoY-3.60%
02/01Nonfarm Productivity0.70%3.00%
02/01Unit Labor Costs0.90%-0.20%
02/01Initial Jobless Claims235k233k
02/01Continuing Claims1929k1937k
02/01Bloomberg Consumer Comfort53.7
02/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.555.5
02/01Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.80%
02/01ISM Manufacturing58.659.759.3
02/01ISM Employment5758.1
02/01ISM Prices Paid68.869
02/01ISM New Orders69.467.4
02/01Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales13.45m13.72m
02/01Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.25m17.76m
02/02Annual Revisions: Establishment Survey
02/02Change in Nonfarm Payrolls180k148k
02/02Change in Private Payrolls181k146k
02/02Change in Manufact. Payrolls20k25k
02/02Unemployment Rate4.10%4.10%
02/02Underemployment Rate8.10%
02/02Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.30%
02/02Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.60%2.50%
02/02Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
02/02Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%
02/02U. of Mich. Sentiment9594.4
02/02U. of Mich. Current Conditions109.2
02/02U. of Mich. Expectations84.8
02/02U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
02/02U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%
02/02Factory Orders1.50%1.30%
02/02Factory Orders Ex Trans0.80%
02/02Durable Goods Orders2.90%
02/02Durables Ex Transportation0.60%
02/02Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.30%
02/02Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.60%