January 31, 2020 Headlines

A risk-off trade emerged again overnight, sending US equity futures lower and Treasury prices higher. Market sentiment rebounded yesterday afternoon when the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared the coronavirus outbreak a global emergency (i.e., more serious/coordinated response to the issue), which sparked a 1.3% rebound in the S&P 500 from yesterday’s low. This morning’s negative sentiment is related to a soft Q4 GDP report for the eurozone, as well as a general unwillingness to be short equities or fixed income going in to the weekend with Chinese stock markets opening Monday for the first time since January 23.

Personal income and spending were largely in line with expectations for December. PCE inflation metrics were higher than expected for December on a month-over-month basis, with headline PCE rising 0.3% (0.2% expected) and core PCE rising 0.2% (0.1% expected). Year-over-year PCE metrics were as expected, with both headline and core readings at a 1.6% rate.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

1/31/2020Personal Income0.30%0.20%0.50%0.40%
1/31/2020Personal Spending0.30%0.30%0.40%
1/31/2020Real Personal Spending0.10%0.10%0.30%
1/31/2020PCE Deflator MoM0.20%0.30%0.20%0.10%
1/31/2020PCE Deflator YoY1.60%1.60%1.50%1.40%
1/31/2020PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.20%0.10%
1/31/2020PCE Core Deflator YoY1.60%1.60%1.60%1.50%
1/31/2020Employment Cost Index0.70%0.70%0.70%
1/31/2020MNI Chicago PMI48.948.948.2
1/31/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment99.199.1
1/31/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions115.8
1/31/2020U. of Mich. Expectations88.3
1/31/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.50%
1/31/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%





Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.