Treasury prices have turned lower this morning on higher corporate and European government bond supply, as well as a recovery in oil prices. U.S. equity futures remain down on the day (S&P 500 futures -25 points), but prices have bounced 1% higher from the overnight lows. The big headline overnight was an announcement from Apple that it was cutting its revenue outlook for the first time in nearly two decades due to weaker demand from China. Apple CEO Tim Cook suggested some challenges in selling new iPhones in key emerging markets were expected, “we did foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China,” Cook wrote in a letter to shareholders. One company’s earnings report shouldn’t be that big of deal from a macroeconomic perspective, but it’s not the best timing with markets already worried about growth in China and other major economies outside the United States. However, several equity analysts have pointed out that this weakness is more about Apple-specific problems than a sign of a significant shift in consumer demand abroad.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

 

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
12/31Dallas Fed Manf. Activity15-5.117.6
01/02Markit US Manufacturing PMI53.953.853.9
01/03MBA Mortgage Applications-8.50%-1.40%
01/03Challenger Job Cuts YoY35.30%51.50%
01/03ADP Employment Change180k271k179k
01/03Initial Jobless Claims220k231k216k
01/03Continuing Claims1690k1740k1701k
01/03Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.4
01/03Construction spending data postponed by govt shutdown
01/03ISM Manufacturing57.559.3
01/03ISM Employment58.4
01/03ISM Prices Paid57.760.7
01/03ISM New Orders62.1
01/03Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.24m17.40m
01/04Revisions: Seasonally Adjusted Household Survey data
01/04Change in Nonfarm Payrolls180k155k
01/04Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
01/04Change in Private Payrolls185k161k
01/04Change in Manufact. Payrolls20k27k
01/04Unemployment Rate3.70%3.70%
01/04Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%
01/04Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%3.10%
01/04Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.4
01/04Labor Force Participation Rate62.90%
01/04Underemployment Rate7.60%
01/04Markit US Composite PMI53.6
01/04Markit US Services PMI53.453.4
01/04Advance Goods Trade Balance-$76.0b-$77.2b
01/04Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.80%
01/04New Home Sales568k544k
01/04New Home Sales MoM4.40%-8.90%
01/04Retail Inventories MoM0.90%
01/04Construction Spending MoM0.20%-0.10%