An overnight rally in risk assets, the Nikkei was up 3.3% while the Eurostoxx 50 was up 1.1% combined with a 0.2% increase in oil prices, pushed Treasury prices lower. European inflation data came in right at or above expectations depending on the region. In the US, initial jobless claims fell by 5,000 from the prior week and 10,000 less than expectations. The ADP National Employment report showed that the economy added 250,000 jobs in December, beating expectations by 60,000. This increase combined with the steady low level of jobless claims highlights the strength of the US labor market; the pace at which jobs grew last month exceeded the amount needed to maintain the current level of employment, so it is possible that 2018 could see a decline in the unemployment rate.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
01/02Markit US Manufacturing PMI5555.155
01/03MBA Mortgage Applications0.70%-3.50%
01/03Construction Spending MoM0.50%0.80%1.40%0.90%
01/03ISM Manufacturing58.259.758.2
01/03ISM Prices Paid64.56965.5
01/03ISM New Orders69.464
01/03ISM Employment5759.7
01/03FOMC Meeting Minutes
01/03Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.50m17.76m17.35m17.40m
01/03Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales13.35m13.72m13.38m13.46m
01/04Challenger Job Cuts YoY-3.60%30.10%
01/04ADP Employment Change190k250k190k185k
01/04U.S. Govt Delayed Opening, Jobless Claims Lockup is Canceled    
01/04Initial Jobless Claims240k250k245k247k
01/04Continuing Claims1928k1914k1943k1951k
01/04Markit US Services PMI52.552.4
01/04Markit US Composite PMI53
01/04Bloomberg Consumer Comfort52.4
01/05Change in Nonfarm Payrolls190k228k
01/05Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
01/05Change in Private Payrolls190k221k
01/05Change in Manufact. Payrolls18k31k
01/05Unemployment Rate4.10%4.10%
01/05Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%
01/05Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.50%2.50%
01/05Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
01/05Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%
01/05Underemployment Rate8.00%
01/05Trade Balance-$50.0b-$48.7b
01/05Revisions: Seasonally Adjusted Household Survey data
01/05ISM Non-Manf. Composite57.657.4
01/05Factory Orders1.10%-0.10%
01/05Factory Orders Ex Trans0.80%
01/05Durable Goods Orders1.30%
01/05Durables Ex Transportation-0.10%
01/05Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.10%
01/05Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%