January 7, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher and steeper again this morning amid fresh global government debt supply and expectations for greater stimulus spending following the Georgia Senate results. Congress formally confirmed Joe Biden’s election to the presidency overnight, and Trump later to an “orderly transition of power on January 20th.” Financial markets were less reactionary to yesterday’s unfortunate events, and for fixed income, the bear steepening began when it became more apparent that both Democrat candidates would win the Senate positions for Georgia. Five different Fed leaders will be speaking today, including three FOMC voting members for 2021.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

01/04/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI56.357.156.5
01/04/21Construction Spending MoM1.00%0.90%1.30%1.60%
01/05/21ISM Manufacturing56.860.757.5
01/05/21ISM New Orders67.965.1
01/05/21ISM Prices Paid6677.665.4
01/05/21ISM Employment51.548.4
01/05/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.80m16.27m15.55m
01/06/21MBA Mortgage Applications1.70%-5.80%
01/06/21ADP Employment Change75k-123k307k304k
01/06/21Markit US Services PMI55.254.855.3
01/06/21Markit US Composite PMI55.355.7
01/06/21Factory Orders0.70%1.00%1.00%1.30%
01/06/21Factory Orders Ex Trans0.80%1.00%1.30%
01/06/21Durable Goods Orders0.90%1.00%0.90%
01/06/21Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.40%0.40%
01/06/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.40%
01/06/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.40%
01/06/21FOMC Meeting Minutes
01/07/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY134.50%45.40%
01/07/21Initial Jobless Claims800k787k787k790k
01/07/21Continuing Claims5200k5072k5219k5198k
01/07/21Trade Balance-$67.3b-$68.1b-$63.1b
01/07/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort44.6
01/07/21ISM Services Index54.555.9
01/08/21Revisions: Household Survey data
01/08/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
01/08/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls50k245k
01/08/21Change in Private Payrolls41k344k
01/08/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls18k27k
01/08/21Unemployment Rate6.80%6.70%
01/08/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.30%
01/08/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.50%4.40%
01/08/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.834.8
01/08/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.50%61.50%
01/08/21Underemployment Rate12.00%
01/08/21Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.80%
01/08/21Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%-0.10%
01/08/21Consumer Credit$9.000b$7.228b

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