Treasury yields are higher and steeper again this morning amid fresh global government debt supply and expectations for greater stimulus spending following the Georgia Senate results. Congress formally confirmed Joe Biden’s election to the presidency overnight, and Trump later to an “orderly transition of power on January 20th.” Financial markets were less reactionary to yesterday’s unfortunate events, and for fixed income, the bear steepening began when it became more apparent that both Democrat candidates would win the Senate positions for Georgia. Five different Fed leaders will be speaking today, including three FOMC voting members for 2021.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/04/21 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 56.3 | 57.1 | 56.5 | — |
| 01/04/21 | Construction Spending MoM | 1.00% | 0.90% | 1.30% | 1.60% |
| 01/05/21 | ISM Manufacturing | 56.8 | 60.7 | 57.5 | — |
| 01/05/21 | ISM New Orders | — | 67.9 | 65.1 | — |
| 01/05/21 | ISM Prices Paid | 66 | 77.6 | 65.4 | — |
| 01/05/21 | ISM Employment | — | 51.5 | 48.4 | — |
| 01/05/21 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.80m | 16.27m | 15.55m | — |
| 01/06/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 1.70% | -5.80% | — |
| 01/06/21 | ADP Employment Change | 75k | -123k | 307k | 304k |
| 01/06/21 | Markit US Services PMI | 55.2 | 54.8 | 55.3 | — |
| 01/06/21 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 55.3 | 55.7 | — |
| 01/06/21 | Factory Orders | 0.70% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.30% |
| 01/06/21 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 0.80% | 1.00% | 1.30% |
| 01/06/21 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.90% | 1.00% | 0.90% | — |
| 01/06/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | — |
| 01/06/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.50% | 0.40% | — |
| 01/06/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.50% | 0.40% | — |
| 01/06/21 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 01/07/21 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 134.50% | 45.40% | — |
| 01/07/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 800k | 787k | 787k | 790k |
| 01/07/21 | Continuing Claims | 5200k | 5072k | 5219k | 5198k |
| 01/07/21 | Trade Balance | -$67.3b | -$68.1b | -$63.1b | — |
| 01/07/21 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 44.6 | — |
| 01/07/21 | ISM Services Index | 54.5 | — | 55.9 | — |
| 01/08/21 | Revisions: Household Survey data | ||||
| 01/08/21 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 01/08/21 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 50k | — | 245k | — |
| 01/08/21 | Change in Private Payrolls | 41k | — | 344k | — |
| 01/08/21 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 18k | — | 27k | — |
| 01/08/21 | Unemployment Rate | 6.80% | — | 6.70% | — |
| 01/08/21 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 01/08/21 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.50% | — | 4.40% | — |
| 01/08/21 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.8 | — | 34.8 | — |
| 01/08/21 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.50% | — | 61.50% | — |
| 01/08/21 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 12.00% | — |
| 01/08/21 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 1.80% | — |
| 01/08/21 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 01/08/21 | Consumer Credit | $9.000b | — | $7.228b | — |
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