January 7, 2022 Headlines

The December employment report provided further evidence of a tight labor market. Growth in nonfarm payrolls missed versus expectations (199k vs. 450k), but wage growth surpassed expectations and the headline unemployment rate fell to 3.9%. The latter further feeds the hawkish monetary policy speculation, and as such, Treasury yields are leaking higher again following the release of the report. It’s been a rough start to the year for fixed income. Term Treasury yields are up 15-25 basis points (bps) this week, and the 21 bps increase in the 5-year note yield in the first 4 days of the week was the steepest increase to start the year in nearly 20 years. The carnage has seeped in mortgage pricing as well, with the Fannie Mae 30-year par-coupon MBS rate rising 30 bps this week to 2.36%.  

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
01/03/22Markit US Manufacturing PMI57.757.757.8
01/03/22Construction Spending MoM0.60%0.40%0.20%0.40%
01/04/22ISM Manufacturing6058.761.1
01/04/22ISM Prices Paid79.368.282.4
01/04/22ISM New Orders60.460.461.5
01/04/22ISM Employment53.654.253.3
01/04/22JOLTS Job Openings11079k10562k11033k11091k
01/04/22Wards Total Vehicle Sales13.10m12.44m12.86m
01/05/22MBA Mortgage Applications-5.60%3.20%
01/05/22ADP Employment Change410k807k534k505k
01/05/22Markit US Services PMI57.557.657.5
01/05/22Markit US Composite PMI5756.9
01/05/22FOMC Meeting Minutes
01/06/22Challenger Job Cuts YoY-75.30%-77.00%
01/06/22Trade Balance-$81.0b-$80.2b-$67.1b-$67.2b
01/06/22Initial Jobless Claims195k207k198k200k
01/06/22Continuing Claims1678k1754k1716k1718k
01/06/22ISM Services Index676269.1
01/06/22Factory Orders1.50%1.60%1.00%1.20%
01/06/22Factory Orders Ex Trans1.10%0.80%1.60%1.50%
01/06/22Durable Goods Orders2.50%2.60%2.50%
01/06/22Durables Ex Transportation0.90%0.80%
01/06/22Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.00%-0.10%
01/06/22Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%0.30%
01/07/22Revisions: Employment Report — Household Survey
01/07/22Change in Nonfarm Payrolls450k199k210k249k
01/07/22Two-Month Payroll Net Revision141k
01/07/22Change in Private Payrolls400k211k235k270k
01/07/22Change in Manufact. Payrolls35k26k31k35k
01/07/22Unemployment Rate4.10%3.90%4.20%
01/07/22Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.40%0.60%0.30%0.40%
01/07/22Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.20%4.70%4.80%5.10%
01/07/22Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.834.734.834.7
01/07/22Labor Force Participation Rate61.90%61.90%61.80%61.90%
01/07/22Underemployment Rate7.30%7.80%7.70%
01/07/22Consumer Credit$20.000b$16.897b

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.