The December employment report provided further evidence of a tight labor market. Growth in nonfarm payrolls missed versus expectations (199k vs. 450k), but wage growth surpassed expectations and the headline unemployment rate fell to 3.9%. The latter further feeds the hawkish monetary policy speculation, and as such, Treasury yields are leaking higher again following the release of the report. It’s been a rough start to the year for fixed income. Term Treasury yields are up 15-25 basis points (bps) this week, and the 21 bps increase in the 5-year note yield in the first 4 days of the week was the steepest increase to start the year in nearly 20 years. The carnage has seeped in mortgage pricing as well, with the Fannie Mae 30-year par-coupon MBS rate rising 30 bps this week to 2.36%.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/03/22 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 57.7 | 57.7 | 57.8 | — |
| 01/03/22 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.60% | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.40% |
| 01/04/22 | ISM Manufacturing | 60 | 58.7 | 61.1 | — |
| 01/04/22 | ISM Prices Paid | 79.3 | 68.2 | 82.4 | — |
| 01/04/22 | ISM New Orders | 60.4 | 60.4 | 61.5 | — |
| 01/04/22 | ISM Employment | 53.6 | 54.2 | 53.3 | — |
| 01/04/22 | JOLTS Job Openings | 11079k | 10562k | 11033k | 11091k |
| 01/04/22 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 13.10m | 12.44m | 12.86m | — |
| 01/05/22 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -5.60% | 3.20% | — |
| 01/05/22 | ADP Employment Change | 410k | 807k | 534k | 505k |
| 01/05/22 | Markit US Services PMI | 57.5 | 57.6 | 57.5 | — |
| 01/05/22 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 57 | 56.9 | — |
| 01/05/22 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 01/06/22 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | -75.30% | -77.00% | — |
| 01/06/22 | Trade Balance | -$81.0b | -$80.2b | -$67.1b | -$67.2b |
| 01/06/22 | Initial Jobless Claims | 195k | 207k | 198k | 200k |
| 01/06/22 | Continuing Claims | 1678k | 1754k | 1716k | 1718k |
| 01/06/22 | ISM Services Index | 67 | 62 | 69.1 | — |
| 01/06/22 | Factory Orders | 1.50% | 1.60% | 1.00% | 1.20% |
| 01/06/22 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | 1.10% | 0.80% | 1.60% | 1.50% |
| 01/06/22 | Durable Goods Orders | 2.50% | 2.60% | 2.50% | — |
| 01/06/22 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | 0.90% | 0.80% | — |
| 01/06/22 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.00% | -0.10% | — |
| 01/06/22 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.30% | 0.30% | — |
| 01/07/22 | Revisions: Employment Report — Household Survey | ||||
| 01/07/22 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 450k | 199k | 210k | 249k |
| 01/07/22 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | 141k | — | — |
| 01/07/22 | Change in Private Payrolls | 400k | 211k | 235k | 270k |
| 01/07/22 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 35k | 26k | 31k | 35k |
| 01/07/22 | Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | 3.90% | 4.20% | — |
| 01/07/22 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.40% | 0.60% | 0.30% | 0.40% |
| 01/07/22 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.20% | 4.70% | 4.80% | 5.10% |
| 01/07/22 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.8 | 34.7 | 34.8 | 34.7 |
| 01/07/22 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.90% | 61.90% | 61.80% | 61.90% |
| 01/07/22 | Underemployment Rate | — | 7.30% | 7.80% | 7.70% |
| 01/07/22 | Consumer Credit | $20.000b | — | $16.897b | — |
Subscribe Today!
Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.