US Treasury yields bull-flattened during the overnight sessions reversing part of Friday’s surge due to the Nonfarm payroll report. While the employment growth was a positive surprise, it only represents a fraction of the workforce and by some estimates, publicly-traded companies account for less than one-fourth. Oil continues to rebound off the December lows (WTI +2.5%) as investors bet on increased demand from China’s stimulus. During the trading session, ISM Non-Manufacturing data will be released, however, Factory Orders and Durable Goods will be delayed because of the government shutdown. Later in the week, the market will be focused on the release of the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday and CPI print on Friday.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
01/07Factory orders/durables data postponed by government shutdown
01/07ISM Non-Manufacturing Index58.560.7
01/08NFIB Small Business Optimism103.3104.8
01/08Trade Balance-$54.0b-$55.5b
01/08JOLTS Job Openings71007079
01/08Consumer Credit$16.000b$25.384b
01/08Advance Goods Trade Balance-$76.0b-$77.2b
01/08Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.80%
01/08Retail Inventories MoM0.90%
01/08New Home Sales568k544k
01/08New Home Sales MoM4.50%-8.90%
01/08Construction Spending MoM0.20%-0.10%
01/08Factory Orders0.30%-2.10%
01/08Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%
01/08Durable Goods Orders0.80%
01/08Durables Ex Transportation-0.30%
01/08Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.60%
01/08Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.10%
01/09MBA Mortgage Applications-8.50%
01/09FOMC Meeting Minutes
01/10Initial Jobless Claims225k231k
01/10Continuing Claims1710k1740k
01/10Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
01/10Bloomberg Consumer Comfort59.6
01/10Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%
01/10Wholesale Trade Sales MoM-0.20%
01/11CPI MoM-0.10%0.00%
01/11CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
01/11CPI YoY1.90%2.20%
01/11CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%2.20%
01/11CPI Core Index SA259.481
01/11CPI Index NSA251.065252.038
01/11Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.50%
01/11Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.80%
01/11Monthly Budget Statement$0.0b-$204.9b