US Treasury yields bull-flattened during the overnight sessions reversing part of Friday’s surge due to the Nonfarm payroll report. While the employment growth was a positive surprise, it only represents a fraction of the workforce and by some estimates, publicly-traded companies account for less than one-fourth. Oil continues to rebound off the December lows (WTI +2.5%) as investors bet on increased demand from China’s stimulus. During the trading session, ISM Non-Manufacturing data will be released, however, Factory Orders and Durable Goods will be delayed because of the government shutdown. Later in the week, the market will be focused on the release of the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday and CPI print on Friday.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior
01/07 Factory orders/durables data postponed by government shutdown
01/07 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 58.5 60.7
01/08 NFIB Small Business Optimism 103.3 104.8
01/08 Trade Balance -$54.0b -$55.5b
01/08 JOLTS Job Openings 7100 7079
01/08 Consumer Credit $16.000b $25.384b
01/08 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$76.0b -$77.2b
01/08 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.50% 0.80%
01/08 Retail Inventories MoM 0.90%
01/08 New Home Sales 568k 544k
01/08 New Home Sales MoM 4.50% -8.90%
01/08 Construction Spending MoM 0.20% -0.10%
01/08 Factory Orders 0.30% -2.10%
01/08 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.30%
01/08 Durable Goods Orders 0.80%
01/08 Durables Ex Transportation -0.30%
01/08 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -0.60%
01/08 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.10%
01/09 MBA Mortgage Applications -8.50%
01/09 FOMC Meeting Minutes
01/10 Initial Jobless Claims 225k 231k
01/10 Continuing Claims 1710k 1740k
01/10 Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
01/10 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 59.6
01/10 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.40%
01/10 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM -0.20%
01/11 CPI MoM -0.10% 0.00%
01/11 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.20% 0.20%
01/11 CPI YoY 1.90% 2.20%
01/11 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 2.20% 2.20%
01/11 CPI Core Index SA 259.481
01/11 CPI Index NSA 251.065 252.038
01/11 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY 0.50%
01/11 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY 0.80%
01/11 Monthly Budget Statement $0.0b -$204.9b