The overnight session was relatively quiet with Japan closed for holiday. Treasury prices are modestly higher in early trading this morning, and S&P 500 futures are 3 points lower. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by Friday’s CPI report (for December), and there are several Fed leaders scheduled to speak over the next few days. Regarding the latter, investors will be listening for any suggestions that the recent tax reform legislation has changed Fed forecasts for growth and inflation enough to alter future policy. A Reuters article this morning says that the central bank currently sees some short-term benefits from the tax bill “without raising any near-term risks,” based on interviews with four Fed leaders. This would suggest no material changes in current policy expectations, which is largely consistent with what some leaders said during the tax reform process.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

01/08Consumer CreditNov$18.000b$20.519b
01/09NFIB Small Business OptimismDec107.5107.5
01/09JOLTS Job OpeningsNov60255996
01/10MBA Mortgage Applications5-Jan0.70%
01/10Import Price Index MoMDec0.40%0.70%
01/10Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoMDec0.10%0.10%
01/10Import Price Index YoYDec3.10%3.10%
01/10Export Price Index MoMDec0.30%0.50%
01/10Export Price Index YoYDec3.10%
01/10Wholesale Inventories MoMNov F0.70%0.70%
01/10Wholesale Trade Sales MoMNov0.70%
01/11PPI Final Demand MoMDec0.20%0.40%
01/11PPI Ex Food and Energy MoMDec0.20%0.30%
01/11PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoMDec0.20%0.40%
01/11PPI Final Demand YoYDec3.00%3.10%
01/11PPI Ex Food and Energy YoYDec2.50%2.40%
01/11PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoYDec2.40%
01/11Initial Jobless Claims6-Jan245k250k
01/11Continuing Claims30-Dec1920k1914k
01/11Revisions: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
01/11Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
01/11Bloomberg Consumer Comfort7-Jan51.8
01/11Monthly Budget StatementDec-$30.0b-$138.5b
01/12CPI MoMDec0.10%0.40%
01/12CPI Ex Food and Energy MoMDec0.20%0.10%
01/12CPI YoYDec2.10%2.20%
01/12CPI Ex Food and Energy YoYDec1.70%1.70%
01/12CPI Index NSADec246.362246.669
01/12CPI Core Index SADec253.724
01/12Retail Sales Advance MoMDec0.50%0.80%
01/12Retail Sales Ex Auto MoMDec0.30%1.00%
01/12Retail Sales Ex Auto and GasDec0.50%0.80%
01/12Retail Sales Control GroupDec0.40%0.80%
01/12Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoYDec0.80%
01/12Real Avg Hourly Earning YoYDec0.20%
01/12Business InventoriesNov0.40%-0.10%