The overnight session was relatively quiet with Japan closed for holiday. Treasury prices are modestly higher in early trading this morning, and S&P 500 futures are 3 points lower. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by Friday’s CPI report (for December), and there are several Fed leaders scheduled to speak over the next few days. Regarding the latter, investors will be listening for any suggestions that the recent tax reform legislation has changed Fed forecasts for growth and inflation enough to alter future policy. A Reuters article this morning says that the central bank currently sees some short-term benefits from the tax bill “without raising any near-term risks,” based on interviews with four Fed leaders. This would suggest no material changes in current policy expectations, which is largely consistent with what some leaders said during the tax reform process.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Period | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior |
| 01/08 | Consumer Credit | Nov | $18.000b | — | $20.519b |
| 01/09 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | Dec | 107.5 | — | 107.5 |
| 01/09 | JOLTS Job Openings | Nov | 6025 | — | 5996 |
| 01/10 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 5-Jan | — | — | 0.70% |
| 01/10 | Import Price Index MoM | Dec | 0.40% | — | 0.70% |
| 01/10 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | Dec | 0.10% | — | 0.10% |
| 01/10 | Import Price Index YoY | Dec | 3.10% | — | 3.10% |
| 01/10 | Export Price Index MoM | Dec | 0.30% | — | 0.50% |
| 01/10 | Export Price Index YoY | Dec | — | — | 3.10% |
| 01/10 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | Nov F | 0.70% | — | 0.70% |
| 01/10 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | Nov | — | — | 0.70% |
| 01/11 | PPI Final Demand MoM | Dec | 0.20% | — | 0.40% |
| 01/11 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Dec | 0.20% | — | 0.30% |
| 01/11 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | Dec | 0.20% | — | 0.40% |
| 01/11 | PPI Final Demand YoY | Dec | 3.00% | — | 3.10% |
| 01/11 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Dec | 2.50% | — | 2.40% |
| 01/11 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | Dec | — | — | 2.40% |
| 01/11 | Initial Jobless Claims | 6-Jan | 245k | — | 250k |
| 01/11 | Continuing Claims | 30-Dec | 1920k | — | 1914k |
| 01/11 | Revisions: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index | ||||
| 01/11 | Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 01/11 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 7-Jan | — | — | 51.8 |
| 01/11 | Monthly Budget Statement | Dec | -$30.0b | — | -$138.5b |
| 01/12 | CPI MoM | Dec | 0.10% | — | 0.40% |
| 01/12 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Dec | 0.20% | — | 0.10% |
| 01/12 | CPI YoY | Dec | 2.10% | — | 2.20% |
| 01/12 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Dec | 1.70% | — | 1.70% |
| 01/12 | CPI Index NSA | Dec | 246.362 | — | 246.669 |
| 01/12 | CPI Core Index SA | Dec | — | — | 253.724 |
| 01/12 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | Dec | 0.50% | — | 0.80% |
| 01/12 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | Dec | 0.30% | — | 1.00% |
| 01/12 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | Dec | 0.50% | — | 0.80% |
| 01/12 | Retail Sales Control Group | Dec | 0.40% | — | 0.80% |
| 01/12 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | Dec | — | — | 0.80% |
| 01/12 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | Dec | — | — | 0.20% |
| 01/12 | Business Inventories | Nov | 0.40% | — | -0.10% |