January 8, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries have fluctuated between positive and negative territory on the day following the release of a disappointing jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls shed 140,000 jobs in December amid renewed Covid-related lockdowns across the country, with much of the job losses concentrated in the leisure and hospitality sectors. Softening the blow a bit from a market perspective was a 135,000 upward revision to the prior two months. The labor unemployment rate held steady at 6.7%, with household employment increasing by 31,000, and the labor participation rate also held unchanged at 61.5%. The market reaction hasn’t been overly negative because this softness was not totally unexpected, and investors are looking ahead to more potential fiscal stimulus and increased vaccine distribution. If those two factors falter, a risk-off trade would be more likely.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

01/04/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI56.357.156.5
01/04/21Construction Spending MoM1.00%0.90%1.30%1.60%
01/05/21ISM Manufacturing56.860.757.5
01/05/21ISM New Orders67.965.1
01/05/21ISM Prices Paid6677.665.4
01/05/21ISM Employment51.548.4
01/05/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.80m16.27m15.55m
01/06/21MBA Mortgage Applications1.70%-5.80%
01/06/21ADP Employment Change75k-123k307k304k
01/06/21Markit US Services PMI55.254.855.3
01/06/21Markit US Composite PMI55.355.7
01/06/21Factory Orders0.70%1.00%1.00%1.30%
01/06/21Factory Orders Ex Trans0.80%1.00%1.30%
01/06/21Durable Goods Orders0.90%1.00%0.90%
01/06/21Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.40%0.40%
01/06/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.40%
01/06/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.40%
01/06/21FOMC Meeting Minutes
01/07/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY134.50%45.40%
01/07/21Initial Jobless Claims800k787k787k790k
01/07/21Continuing Claims5200k5072k5219k5198k
01/07/21Trade Balance-$67.3b-$68.1b-$63.1b
01/07/21Bloomberg Consumer Comfort44.444.6
01/07/21ISM Services Index54.557.255.9
01/08/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.80%0.30%
01/08/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.50%5.10%4.40%
01/08/21Revisions: Household Survey data
01/08/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls50k-140k245k336k
01/08/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision135k
01/08/21Change in Private Payrolls25k-95k344k417k
01/08/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls15k38k27k35k
01/08/21Unemployment Rate6.80%6.70%6.70%
01/08/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.834.734.8
01/08/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.50%61.50%61.50%
01/08/21Underemployment Rate11.70%12.00%
01/08/21Wholesale Trade Sales MoM1.80%
01/08/21Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%-0.10%
01/08/21Consumer Credit$9.000b$7.228b

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