January 8, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries have fluctuated between positive and negative territory on the day following the release of a disappointing jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls shed 140,000 jobs in December amid renewed Covid-related lockdowns across the country, with much of the job losses concentrated in the leisure and hospitality sectors. Softening the blow a bit from a market perspective was a 135,000 upward revision to the prior two months. The labor unemployment rate held steady at 6.7%, with household employment increasing by 31,000, and the labor participation rate also held unchanged at 61.5%. The market reaction hasn’t been overly negative because this softness was not totally unexpected, and investors are looking ahead to more potential fiscal stimulus and increased vaccine distribution. If those two factors falter, a risk-off trade would be more likely.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
01/04/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 56.3 57.1 56.5
01/04/21 Construction Spending MoM 1.00% 0.90% 1.30% 1.60%
01/05/21 ISM Manufacturing 56.8 60.7 57.5
01/05/21 ISM New Orders 67.9 65.1
01/05/21 ISM Prices Paid 66 77.6 65.4
01/05/21 ISM Employment 51.5 48.4
01/05/21 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 15.80m 16.27m 15.55m
01/06/21 MBA Mortgage Applications 1.70% -5.80%
01/06/21 ADP Employment Change 75k -123k 307k 304k
01/06/21 Markit US Services PMI 55.2 54.8 55.3
01/06/21 Markit US Composite PMI 55.3 55.7
01/06/21 Factory Orders 0.70% 1.00% 1.00% 1.30%
01/06/21 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.80% 1.00% 1.30%
01/06/21 Durable Goods Orders 0.90% 1.00% 0.90%
01/06/21 Durables Ex Transportation 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
01/06/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 0.40%
01/06/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.50% 0.40%
01/06/21 FOMC Meeting Minutes
01/07/21 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 134.50% 45.40%
01/07/21 Initial Jobless Claims 800k 787k 787k 790k
01/07/21 Continuing Claims 5200k 5072k 5219k 5198k
01/07/21 Trade Balance -$67.3b -$68.1b -$63.1b
01/07/21 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 44.4 44.6
01/07/21 ISM Services Index 54.5 57.2 55.9
01/08/21 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% 0.80% 0.30%
01/08/21 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 4.50% 5.10% 4.40%
01/08/21 Revisions: Household Survey data
01/08/21 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 50k -140k 245k 336k
01/08/21 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision 135k
01/08/21 Change in Private Payrolls 25k -95k 344k 417k
01/08/21 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 15k 38k 27k 35k
01/08/21 Unemployment Rate 6.80% 6.70% 6.70%
01/08/21 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.8 34.7 34.8
01/08/21 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.50% 61.50% 61.50%
01/08/21 Underemployment Rate 11.70% 12.00%
01/08/21 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 1.80%
01/08/21 Wholesale Inventories MoM -0.10% -0.10%
01/08/21 Consumer Credit $9.000b $7.228b

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