Treasuries have fluctuated between positive and negative territory on the day following the release of a disappointing jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls shed 140,000 jobs in December amid renewed Covid-related lockdowns across the country, with much of the job losses concentrated in the leisure and hospitality sectors. Softening the blow a bit from a market perspective was a 135,000 upward revision to the prior two months. The labor unemployment rate held steady at 6.7%, with household employment increasing by 31,000, and the labor participation rate also held unchanged at 61.5%. The market reaction hasn’t been overly negative because this softness was not totally unexpected, and investors are looking ahead to more potential fiscal stimulus and increased vaccine distribution. If those two factors falter, a risk-off trade would be more likely.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 01/04/21 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 56.3 | 57.1 | 56.5 | — |
| 01/04/21 | Construction Spending MoM | 1.00% | 0.90% | 1.30% | 1.60% |
| 01/05/21 | ISM Manufacturing | 56.8 | 60.7 | 57.5 | — |
| 01/05/21 | ISM New Orders | — | 67.9 | 65.1 | — |
| 01/05/21 | ISM Prices Paid | 66 | 77.6 | 65.4 | — |
| 01/05/21 | ISM Employment | — | 51.5 | 48.4 | — |
| 01/05/21 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.80m | 16.27m | 15.55m | — |
| 01/06/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 1.70% | -5.80% | — |
| 01/06/21 | ADP Employment Change | 75k | -123k | 307k | 304k |
| 01/06/21 | Markit US Services PMI | 55.2 | 54.8 | 55.3 | — |
| 01/06/21 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 55.3 | 55.7 | — |
| 01/06/21 | Factory Orders | 0.70% | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.30% |
| 01/06/21 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | 0.80% | 1.00% | 1.30% |
| 01/06/21 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.90% | 1.00% | 0.90% | — |
| 01/06/21 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | — |
| 01/06/21 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.50% | 0.40% | — |
| 01/06/21 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | 0.50% | 0.40% | — |
| 01/06/21 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 01/07/21 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 134.50% | 45.40% | — |
| 01/07/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 800k | 787k | 787k | 790k |
| 01/07/21 | Continuing Claims | 5200k | 5072k | 5219k | 5198k |
| 01/07/21 | Trade Balance | -$67.3b | -$68.1b | -$63.1b | — |
| 01/07/21 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 44.4 | 44.6 | — |
| 01/07/21 | ISM Services Index | 54.5 | 57.2 | 55.9 | — |
| 01/08/21 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.20% | 0.80% | 0.30% | — |
| 01/08/21 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.50% | 5.10% | 4.40% | — |
| 01/08/21 | Revisions: Household Survey data | ||||
| 01/08/21 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 50k | -140k | 245k | 336k |
| 01/08/21 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | 135k | — | — |
| 01/08/21 | Change in Private Payrolls | 25k | -95k | 344k | 417k |
| 01/08/21 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 15k | 38k | 27k | 35k |
| 01/08/21 | Unemployment Rate | 6.80% | 6.70% | 6.70% | — |
| 01/08/21 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.8 | 34.7 | 34.8 | — |
| 01/08/21 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 61.50% | 61.50% | 61.50% | — |
| 01/08/21 | Underemployment Rate | — | 11.70% | 12.00% | — |
| 01/08/21 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 1.80% | — |
| 01/08/21 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | -0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 01/08/21 | Consumer Credit | $9.000b | — | $7.228b | — |
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