January 9, 2020 Headlines

Risk markets performed well overnight, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.35% ahead of the open. Treasuries fluctuated between positive and negative territory overnight on various headlines (Iran, US/China, etc.), and yields are now modestly higher versus yesterday’s close. On the trade front, China formally announced that Vice Premier Liu will be travelling to Washington next week to sign the phase one trade deal with the United States. President Trump’s address yesterday afternoon effectively de-escalated military hostilities with Iran, but he did pledge to tighten existing economic sanctions against the country. On a related note, the House of Representatives will be voting today on a resolution aimed at limiting the president’s options for military action.

Initial jobless claims for the weekend ended January 4 came in below expectations at 214,000, and tomorrow’s release of the December payrolls report is expected to show 164,000 jobs added on the month. Several Fed leaders will be speaking today, including John Williams (New York Fed) at a Bank of England event.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
1/6/2020	Markit US Services PMI	52.2	52.8	52.2	—
1/6/2020	Markit US Composite PMI	—	52.7	52.2	—
1/7/2020	Trade Balance	-$43.6b	-$43.1b	-$47.2b	-$46.9b
1/7/2020	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	54.5	55	53.9	—
1/7/2020	Factory Orders	-0.80%	-0.70%	0.30%	0.20%
1/7/2020	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	0.30%	0.20%	0.30%
1/7/2020	Durable Goods Orders	-2.00%	-2.10%	-2.00%	—
1/7/2020	Durables Ex Transportation	—	-0.10%	0.00%	—
1/7/2020	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	0.20%	0.10%	—
1/7/2020	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	-0.30%	-0.30%	—
1/8/2020	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	13.50%	-13.20%	—
1/8/2020	ADP Employment Change	160k	202k	67k	124k
1/8/2020	Consumer Credit	$16.000b	$12.513b	$18.908b	$18.976b
1/9/2020	Revisions: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
1/9/2020	Initial Jobless Claims	220k	214k	222k	223k
1/9/2020	Continuing Claims	1720k	1803k	1728k	—
1/9/2020	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	63.9	—
1/10/2020	Revisions: Household Survey Data
1/10/2020	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	160k	—	266k	—
1/10/2020	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	41k	—
1/10/2020	Change in Private Payrolls	153k	—	254k	—
1/10/2020	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	5k	—	54k	—
1/10/2020	Unemployment Rate	3.50%	—	3.50%	—
1/10/2020	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	—	0.20%	—
1/10/2020	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.10%	—	3.10%	—
1/10/2020	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	—	34.4	—
1/10/2020	Labor Force Participation Rate	—	—	63.20%	—
1/10/2020	Underemployment Rate	—	—	6.90%	—
1/10/2020	Bloomberg Jan. United States Economic Survey
1/10/2020	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.00%	—	0.00%	—
1/10/2020	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	0.20%	—	-0.70%	—

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