July 1, 2019 Headlines

Global equity indices are higher on the U.S./China trade truce, which was the general expectation heading into the G-20 summit in Japan. Treasury yields rose overnight in response to the improved tone in risk markets, but weaker manufacturing data out of Europe has limited the sell-off this morning. Investors appear more cautious on the U.S./China news (i.e., this isn’t the first truce between the two countries), and this morning’s risk-on trade is more related to President Trump’s decision to temporarily repeal some of the restrictions on U.S. companies selling supplies to Huawei. The Chinese telecom firm will remain on the Commerce Department’s blacklist, but American technology firms will be allowed to ship certain components for Huawei products not considered a threat to U.S. national security. Attention will now shift back to the Fed, and despite the truce, fixed income markets are still pricing a 100% probability of a July rate cut.

Trading volumes should be limited this week due to the holiday on Thursday (early close on Wednesday and light staffing on Friday). The June jobs report will be released on Friday, and New York Fed President John Williams will be speaking tomorrow.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

7/1/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI50.150.1
7/1/2019ISM Manufacturing5152.1
7/1/2019ISM Employment53.7
7/1/2019ISM Prices Paid5353.2
7/1/2019ISM New Orders52.552.7
7/1/2019Construction Spending MoM0.00%0.00%
7/2/2019Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.98m17.30m
7/3/2019MBA Mortgage Applications1.30%
7/3/2019Challenger Job Cuts YoY85.90%
7/3/2019ADP Employment Change140k27k
7/3/2019Trade Balance-$54.0b-$50.8b
7/3/2019Initial Jobless Claims223k227k
7/3/2019Continuing Claims1675k1688k
7/3/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort63.6
7/3/2019Markit US Services PMI50.750.7
7/3/2019Markit US Composite PMI50.6
7/3/2019Factory Orders-0.60%-0.80%
7/3/2019Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%
7/3/2019Durable Goods Orders-1.30%-1.30%
7/3/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.30%
7/3/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.70%
7/3/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%
7/3/2019ISM Non-Manufacturing Index55.956.9
7/5/2019Change in Nonfarm Payrolls162k75k
7/5/2019Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
7/5/2019Change in Private Payrolls155k90k
7/5/2019Change in Manufact. Payrolls1k3k
7/5/2019Unemployment Rate3.60%3.60%
7/5/2019Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%
7/5/2019Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.20%3.10%
7/5/2019Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
7/5/2019Labor Force Participation Rate62.80%62.80%
7/5/2019Underemployment Rate7.10%





























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