July 1, 2019 Headlines

Global equity indices are higher on the U.S./China trade truce, which was the general expectation heading into the G-20 summit in Japan. Treasury yields rose overnight in response to the improved tone in risk markets, but weaker manufacturing data out of Europe has limited the sell-off this morning. Investors appear more cautious on the U.S./China news (i.e., this isn’t the first truce between the two countries), and this morning’s risk-on trade is more related to President Trump’s decision to temporarily repeal some of the restrictions on U.S. companies selling supplies to Huawei. The Chinese telecom firm will remain on the Commerce Department’s blacklist, but American technology firms will be allowed to ship certain components for Huawei products not considered a threat to U.S. national security. Attention will now shift back to the Fed, and despite the truce, fixed income markets are still pricing a 100% probability of a July rate cut.

Trading volumes should be limited this week due to the holiday on Thursday (early close on Wednesday and light staffing on Friday). The June jobs report will be released on Friday, and New York Fed President John Williams will be speaking tomorrow.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
7/1/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI50.150.1
7/1/2019ISM Manufacturing5152.1
7/1/2019ISM Employment53.7
7/1/2019ISM Prices Paid5353.2
7/1/2019ISM New Orders52.552.7
7/1/2019Construction Spending MoM0.00%0.00%
7/2/2019Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.98m17.30m
7/3/2019MBA Mortgage Applications1.30%
7/3/2019Challenger Job Cuts YoY85.90%
7/3/2019ADP Employment Change140k27k
7/3/2019Trade Balance-$54.0b-$50.8b
7/3/2019Initial Jobless Claims223k227k
7/3/2019Continuing Claims1675k1688k
7/3/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort63.6
7/3/2019Markit US Services PMI50.750.7
7/3/2019Markit US Composite PMI50.6
7/3/2019Factory Orders-0.60%-0.80%
7/3/2019Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%
7/3/2019Durable Goods Orders-1.30%-1.30%
7/3/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.30%
7/3/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.70%
7/3/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.40%
7/3/2019ISM Non-Manufacturing Index55.956.9
7/5/2019Change in Nonfarm Payrolls162k75k
7/5/2019Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
7/5/2019Change in Private Payrolls155k90k
7/5/2019Change in Manufact. Payrolls1k3k
7/5/2019Unemployment Rate3.60%3.60%
7/5/2019Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%
7/5/2019Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.20%3.10%
7/5/2019Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
7/5/2019Labor Force Participation Rate62.80%62.80%
7/5/2019Underemployment Rate7.10%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.