July 1, 2019 Headlines

Global equity indices are higher on the U.S./China trade truce, which was the general expectation heading into the G-20 summit in Japan. Treasury yields rose overnight in response to the improved tone in risk markets, but weaker manufacturing data out of Europe has limited the sell-off this morning. Investors appear more cautious on the U.S./China news (i.e., this isn’t the first truce between the two countries), and this morning’s risk-on trade is more related to President Trump’s decision to temporarily repeal some of the restrictions on U.S. companies selling supplies to Huawei. The Chinese telecom firm will remain on the Commerce Department’s blacklist, but American technology firms will be allowed to ship certain components for Huawei products not considered a threat to U.S. national security. Attention will now shift back to the Fed, and despite the truce, fixed income markets are still pricing a 100% probability of a July rate cut.

Trading volumes should be limited this week due to the holiday on Thursday (early close on Wednesday and light staffing on Friday). The June jobs report will be released on Friday, and New York Fed President John Williams will be speaking tomorrow.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
7/1/2019	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	50.1	—	50.1	—
7/1/2019	ISM Manufacturing	51	—	52.1	—
7/1/2019	ISM Employment	—	—	53.7	—
7/1/2019	ISM Prices Paid	53	—	53.2	—
7/1/2019	ISM New Orders	52.5	—	52.7	—
7/1/2019	Construction Spending MoM	0.00%	—	0.00%	—
7/2/2019	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	16.98m	—	17.30m	—
7/3/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	1.30%	—
7/3/2019	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	85.90%	—
7/3/2019	ADP Employment Change	140k	—	27k	—
7/3/2019	Trade Balance	-$54.0b	—	-$50.8b	—
7/3/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	223k	—	227k	—
7/3/2019	Continuing Claims	1675k	—	1688k	—
7/3/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	63.6	—
7/3/2019	Markit US Services PMI	50.7	—	50.7	—
7/3/2019	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	50.6	—
7/3/2019	Factory Orders	-0.60%	—	-0.80%	—
7/3/2019	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	0.30%	—
7/3/2019	Durable Goods Orders	-1.30%	—	-1.30%	—
7/3/2019	Durables Ex Transportation	—	—	0.30%	—
7/3/2019	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.70%	—
7/3/2019	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.40%	—
7/3/2019	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	55.9	—	56.9	—
7/5/2019	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	162k	—	75k	—
7/5/2019	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	—	—
7/5/2019	Change in Private Payrolls	155k	—	90k	—
7/5/2019	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	1k	—	3k	—
7/5/2019	Unemployment Rate	3.60%	—	3.60%	—
7/5/2019	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	—	0.20%	—
7/5/2019	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	3.20%	—	3.10%	—
7/5/2019	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	—	34.4	—
7/5/2019	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.80%	—	62.80%	—
7/5/2019	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.10%	—

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.