Global equity indices are higher on the U.S./China trade truce, which was the general expectation heading into the G-20 summit in Japan. Treasury yields rose overnight in response to the improved tone in risk markets, but weaker manufacturing data out of Europe has limited the sell-off this morning. Investors appear more cautious on the U.S./China news (i.e., this isn’t the first truce between the two countries), and this morning’s risk-on trade is more related to President Trump’s decision to temporarily repeal some of the restrictions on U.S. companies selling supplies to Huawei. The Chinese telecom firm will remain on the Commerce Department’s blacklist, but American technology firms will be allowed to ship certain components for Huawei products not considered a threat to U.S. national security. Attention will now shift back to the Fed, and despite the truce, fixed income markets are still pricing a 100% probability of a July rate cut.
Trading volumes should be limited this week due to the holiday on Thursday (early close on Wednesday and light staffing on Friday). The June jobs report will be released on Friday, and New York Fed President John Williams will be speaking tomorrow.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
7/1/2019 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 50.1 | — | 50.1 | — |
7/1/2019 | ISM Manufacturing | 51 | — | 52.1 | — |
7/1/2019 | ISM Employment | — | — | 53.7 | — |
7/1/2019 | ISM Prices Paid | 53 | — | 53.2 | — |
7/1/2019 | ISM New Orders | 52.5 | — | 52.7 | — |
7/1/2019 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
7/2/2019 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.98m | — | 17.30m | — |
7/3/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 1.30% | — |
7/3/2019 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 85.90% | — |
7/3/2019 | ADP Employment Change | 140k | — | 27k | — |
7/3/2019 | Trade Balance | -$54.0b | — | -$50.8b | — |
7/3/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 223k | — | 227k | — |
7/3/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1675k | — | 1688k | — |
7/3/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 63.6 | — |
7/3/2019 | Markit US Services PMI | 50.7 | — | 50.7 | — |
7/3/2019 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 50.6 | — |
7/3/2019 | Factory Orders | -0.60% | — | -0.80% | — |
7/3/2019 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.30% | — |
7/3/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | -1.30% | — | -1.30% | — |
7/3/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.30% | — |
7/3/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.70% | — |
7/3/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.40% | — |
7/3/2019 | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 55.9 | — | 56.9 | — |
7/5/2019 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 162k | — | 75k | — |
7/5/2019 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
7/5/2019 | Change in Private Payrolls | 155k | — | 90k | — |
7/5/2019 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 1k | — | 3k | — |
7/5/2019 | Unemployment Rate | 3.60% | — | 3.60% | — |
7/5/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
7/5/2019 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.20% | — | 3.10% | — |
7/5/2019 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | — | 34.4 | — |
7/5/2019 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.80% | — | 62.80% | — |
7/5/2019 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.10% | — |
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