July 1, 2020 Headlines

Despite weaker U.S. equity futures overnight, Treasury yields are drifting higher following better than expected economic data out of Asia and Europe. More specifically manufacturing PMI data from China, Japan, and Germany, and Germany also reported much higher than expected growth in retail sales for May (+13.9% vs. +3.5% expected). June U.S. PMI data (ISM) will be reported later this morning, and the minutes of the June 10 FOMC meeting will be released this afternoon. Today is the last full trading day for the bond market this week. Tomorrow will be an early close and Friday a full close in observance of Independence Day.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
6/29/2020	Pending Home Sales MoM	19.30%	44.30%	-21.80%	—
6/29/2020	Pending Home Sales NSA YoY	-21.30%	-10.40%	-34.60%	—
6/29/2020	Dallas Fed Manf. Activity	-21.4	-6.1	-49.2	—
6/30/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	0.50%	0.33%	0.47%	0.49%
6/30/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	3.80%	3.98%	3.92%	3.91%
6/30/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index	224.1	224.08	222.21	222.17
6/30/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	4.50%	4.73%	4.35%	4.55%
6/30/2020	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index	—	217.72	214.96	215.35
6/30/2020	MNI Chicago PMI	45	36.6	32.3	—
6/30/2020	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	91.5	98.1	86.6	85.9
6/30/2020	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	86.2	71.1	68.4
6/30/2020	Conf. Board Expectations	—	106	96.9	97.6
7/1/2020	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-1.80%	-8.70%	—
7/1/2020	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	305.50%	577.80%	—
7/1/2020	ADP Employment Change	2900k	2369k	-2760k	3065k
7/1/2020	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	49.6	—	49.6	—
7/1/2020	ISM Manufacturing	49.8	—	43.1	—
7/1/2020	ISM New Orders	51.9	—	31.8	—
7/1/2020	ISM Prices Paid	44.6	—	40.8	—
7/1/2020	ISM Employment	—	—	32.1	—
7/1/2020	Construction Spending MoM	1.00%	—	-2.90%	—
7/1/2020	Revisions: Construction Spending
7/1/2020	FOMC Meeting Minutes	—	—	—	—
7/1/2020	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	13.00m	—	12.21m	—
7/2/2020	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	—	—
7/2/2020	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	3074k	—	2509k	—
7/2/2020	Change in Private Payrolls	3000k	—	3094k	—
7/2/2020	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	425k	—	225k	—
7/2/2020	Unemployment Rate	12.50%	—	13.30%	—
7/2/2020	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.5	—	34.7	—
7/2/2020	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	-0.80%	—	-1.00%	—
7/2/2020	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	5.30%	—	6.70%	—
7/2/2020	Labor Force Participation Rate	61.20%	—	60.80%	—
7/2/2020	Underemployment Rate	—	—	21.20%	—
7/2/2020	Initial Jobless Claims	1350k	—	1480k	—
7/2/2020	Continuing Claims	19000k	—	19522k	—
7/2/2020	Trade Balance	-$53.1b	—	-$49.4b	—
7/2/2020	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	41.4	—
7/2/2020	Factory Orders	8.60%	—	-13.00%	—
7/2/2020	Factory Orders Ex Trans	—	—	-8.50%	—
7/2/2020	Durable Goods Orders	15.80%	—	15.80%	—
7/2/2020	Durables Ex Transportation	4.00%	—	4.00%	—
7/2/2020	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	2.30%	—	2.30%	—
7/2/2020	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	1.80%	—

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