July 1, 2021 Headlines

The third quarter is off to a quiet start for financial markets as we head into the long holiday weekend. Treasuries are little changed across the curve following light trading in the overnight session. The corporate bond market continues to benefit from an improved economic outlook and a heavy Fed presence (in general), both of which contribute to tighter spreads in the sector. The Bloomberg Barclays Index generated a 1.6% return in June, the best since last November, but the index, which has an 8-handle duration, is still down 1.3% YTD due to the Q1 curve steepening. Index OAS finished the month at 80 bps, the lowest since March 2005.  On the data front, initial jobless claims fell sharply last week to 364,000, down 51,000 from the prior week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
06/28/21 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 32.5 31.1 34.9 —
06/29/21 FHFA House Price Index MoM 1.60% 1.80% 1.40% 1.60%
06/29/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 1.80% 1.62% 1.60% 1.59%
06/29/21 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 14.70% 14.88% 13.27% 13.36%
06/29/21 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA — 14.59% 13.19% 13.32%
06/29/21 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 119 127.3 117.2 120
06/29/21 Conf. Board Present Situation — 157.7 144.3 148.7
06/29/21 Conf. Board Expectations — 107 99.1 100.9
06/30/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — -6.90% 2.10% —
06/30/21 ADP Employment Change 600k 692k 978k 886k
06/30/21 MNI Chicago PMI 70 66.1 75.2 —
06/30/21 Pending Home Sales MoM -1.00% 8.00% -4.40% —
06/30/21 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY — 13.90% 53.50% 53.70%
07/01/21 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — -88.00% -93.80% —
07/01/21 Initial Jobless Claims 388k 364k 411k 415k
07/01/21 Continuing Claims 3340k 3469k 3390k 3413k
07/01/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 56.9 —
07/01/21 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 62.6 — 62.6 —
07/01/21 Construction Spending MoM 0.40% — 0.20% —
07/01/21 ISM Manufacturing 60.9 — 61.2 —
07/01/21 ISM Prices Paid 87 — 88 —
07/01/21 ISM New Orders 65 — 67 —
07/01/21 ISM Employment — — 50.9 —
07/01/21 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.50m — 16.99m —
07/02/21 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 711k — 559k —
07/02/21 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — 27k —
07/02/21 Change in Private Payrolls 615k — 492k —
07/02/21 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 25k — 23k —
07/02/21 Unemployment Rate 5.60% — 5.80% —
07/02/21 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.60% — 2.00% —
07/02/21 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.9 — 34.9 —
07/02/21 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.40% — 0.50% —
07/02/21 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.60% — 61.60% —
07/02/21 Underemployment Rate — — 10.20% —
07/02/21 Trade Balance -$71.3b — -$68.9b —
07/02/21 Factory Orders 1.60% — -0.60% —
07/02/21 Factory Orders Ex Trans — — 0.50% —
07/02/21 Durable Goods Orders 2.30% — 2.30% —
07/02/21 Durables Ex Transportation 0.30% — 0.30% —
07/02/21 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -0.10% — -0.10% —
07/02/21 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — 0.90% —

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