July 1, 2021 Headlines

The third quarter is off to a quiet start for financial markets as we head into the long holiday weekend. Treasuries are little changed across the curve following light trading in the overnight session. The corporate bond market continues to benefit from an improved economic outlook and a heavy Fed presence (in general), both of which contribute to tighter spreads in the sector. The Bloomberg Barclays Index generated a 1.6% return in June, the best since last November, but the index, which has an 8-handle duration, is still down 1.3% YTD due to the Q1 curve steepening. Index OAS finished the month at 80 bps, the lowest since March 2005.  On the data front, initial jobless claims fell sharply last week to 364,000, down 51,000 from the prior week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
06/28/21Dallas Fed Manf. Activity32.531.134.9
06/29/21FHFA House Price Index MoM1.60%1.80%1.40%1.60%
06/29/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA1.80%1.62%1.60%1.59%
06/29/21S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA14.70%14.88%13.27%13.36%
06/29/21S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA14.59%13.19%13.32%
06/29/21Conf. Board Consumer Confidence119127.3117.2120
06/29/21Conf. Board Present Situation157.7144.3148.7
06/29/21Conf. Board Expectations10799.1100.9
06/30/21MBA Mortgage Applications-6.90%2.10%
06/30/21ADP Employment Change600k692k978k886k
06/30/21MNI Chicago PMI7066.175.2
06/30/21Pending Home Sales MoM-1.00%8.00%-4.40%
06/30/21Pending Home Sales NSA YoY13.90%53.50%53.70%
07/01/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY-88.00%-93.80%
07/01/21Initial Jobless Claims388k364k411k415k
07/01/21Continuing Claims3340k3469k3390k3413k
07/01/21Langer Consumer Comfort56.9
07/01/21Markit US Manufacturing PMI62.662.6
07/01/21Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.20%
07/01/21ISM Manufacturing60.961.2
07/01/21ISM Prices Paid8788
07/01/21ISM New Orders6567
07/01/21ISM Employment50.9
07/01/21Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.50m16.99m
07/02/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls711k559k
07/02/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision27k
07/02/21Change in Private Payrolls615k492k
07/02/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls25k23k
07/02/21Unemployment Rate5.60%5.80%
07/02/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.60%2.00%
07/02/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.934.9
07/02/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.40%0.50%
07/02/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.60%61.60%
07/02/21Underemployment Rate10.20%
07/02/21Trade Balance-$71.3b-$68.9b
07/02/21Factory Orders1.60%-0.60%
07/02/21Factory Orders Ex Trans0.50%
07/02/21Durable Goods Orders2.30%2.30%
07/02/21Durables Ex Transportation0.30%0.30%
07/02/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.10%-0.10%
07/02/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.90%

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