July 11, 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields bounced higher following the release of the June CPI report, which showed higher than expected growth in core prices.  Asian equity markets were generally higher overnight in the wake of Powell’s dovish comments yesterday, and European equities and U.S. futures are modestly higher this morning.  

Headline and core CPI rose 0.1% and 0.2% versus the prior month, respectively, with both coming in above expectations. On a year-over-year basis, core prices rose 2.1% in June versus expectations of 2% growth and up from 2% in May.  It’s highly unlikely that this data point would be enough to dissuade the Fed from a July rate cut, but better-than-expected data does reduce the odds of a 50 bps cut at that meeting (or for 75 bps total in 2019). Fed Chair Powell will testify before the Senate Banking Committee this morning, and several other Fed leaders will be speaking throughout the day. Given the recent disparity in the June FOMC projections for the fed funds rate, many market participants will be looking to see if other Fed leaders comments align with Powell’s testimony yesterday.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

7/8/2019Consumer Credit$17.000b$17.086b$17.497b$17.457b
7/9/2019NFIB Small Business Optimism103.1103.3105
7/9/2019JOLTS Job Openings7470732374497372
7/10/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-2.40%-0.10%
7/10/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.40%0.40%
7/10/2019Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.30%0.10%-0.40%
7/10/2019FOMC Meeting Minutes
7/11/2019CPI MoM0.00%0.10%0.10%
7/11/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.10%
7/11/2019CPI YoY1.60%1.60%1.80%
7/11/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.00%2.10%2.00%
7/11/2019CPI Core Index SA262.564262.803262.032
7/11/2019CPI Index NSA256.093256.143256.092
7/11/2019Initial Jobless Claims221k209k221k222k
7/11/2019Continuing Claims1683k1723k1686k1696k
7/11/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.50%1.30%
7/11/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.20%1.00%
7/11/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort62.6
7/11/2019Monthly Budget Statement-$7.9b-$74.9b
7/12/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.00%0.10%
7/12/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
7/12/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.40%
7/12/2019PPI Final Demand YoY1.60%1.80%
7/12/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.10%2.30%
7/12/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.30%
7/12/2019Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey






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