Trade war tensions have resurfaced with President Trump aiming to impose tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods. As a result, equity and commodity markets sold off overnight while the dollar strengthened. Chinese officials vowed to lodge complaints at the World Trade Organization but did not provide any details on what they would do in retaliation.
On the data front, this morning’s release of PPI came in better than expected at 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at 0.3% as well beating expectations by the same margin as the headline reading. The index rose 3.4% year-over-year, the fastest pace since November of 2011. The numbers show that inflation in the production pipeline are firming in response to higher tariffs as well as increasing demand.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 07/09/2018 | Consumer Credit | $12.000b | $24.559b | $9.262b | $10.273b |
| 07/10/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 106.9 | 107.2 | 107.8 | — |
| 07/10/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6620 | 6638 | 6698 | 6840 |
| 07/11/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 2.50% | -0.50% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.50% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.30% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.10% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 3.10% | 3.40% | 3.10% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.60% | 2.80% | 2.40% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.70% | 2.60% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 231k | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1730k | — | 1739k | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.90% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.30% | — | 2.20% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI Index NSA | 252.092 | — | 251.588 | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | 257.361 | — | 256.889 | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 07/12/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 57.6 | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$80.0b | — | -$146.8b | — |
| 07/13/2018 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 07/13/2018 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 07/13/2018 | Import Price Index YoY | 4.60% | — | 4.30% | — |
| 07/13/2018 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 07/13/2018 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 4.90% | — |
| 07/13/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 98 | — | 98.2 | — |
| 07/13/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 116.5 | — |
| 07/13/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 86.3 | — |
| 07/13/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 07/13/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 07/16/2018 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 07/16/2018 | Empire Manufacturing | 20 | — | 25 | — |
| 07/16/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 07/16/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 07/16/2018 | Retail Sales Control Group | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 07/16/2018 | Business Inventories | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 07/17/2018 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.60% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 07/17/2018 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | — | — | -0.70% | — |
| 07/17/2018 | Capacity Utilization | 78.30% | — | 77.90% | — |
| 07/17/2018 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 69 | — | 68 | — |
| 07/17/2018 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $138.7b | — |
| 07/17/2018 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $93.9b | — |
| 07/18/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 07/18/2018 | Housing Starts | 1325k | — | 1350k | — |
| 07/18/2018 | Housing Starts MoM | -1.70% | — | 5.00% | — |
| 07/18/2018 | Building Permits | 1323k | — | 1301k | — |