Trade war tensions have resurfaced with President Trump aiming to impose tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods. As a result, equity and commodity markets sold off overnight while the dollar strengthened. Chinese officials vowed to lodge complaints at the World Trade Organization but did not provide any details on what they would do in retaliation.

On the data front, this morning’s release of PPI came in better than expected at 0.3% versus 0.2% expected. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, came in at 0.3% as well beating expectations by the same margin as the headline reading. The index rose 3.4% year-over-year, the fastest pace since November of 2011. The numbers show that inflation in the production pipeline are firming in response to higher tariffs as well as increasing demand.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
07/09/2018Consumer Credit$12.000b$24.559b$9.262b$10.273b
07/10/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism106.9107.2107.8
07/10/2018JOLTS Job Openings6620663866986840
07/11/2018MBA Mortgage Applications2.50%-0.50%
07/11/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.30%0.50%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.30%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.30%0.10%
07/11/2018PPI Final Demand YoY3.10%3.40%3.10%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%2.80%2.40%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.70%2.60%
07/11/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.50%
07/11/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.50%0.80%
07/12/2018Initial Jobless Claims225k231k
07/12/2018Continuing Claims1730k1739k
07/12/2018CPI MoM0.20%0.20%
07/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
07/12/2018CPI YoY2.90%2.80%
07/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.20%
07/12/2018CPI Index NSA252.092251.588
07/12/2018CPI Core Index SA257.361256.889
07/12/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.30%
07/12/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.00%
07/12/2018Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey
07/12/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort57.6
07/12/2018Monthly Budget Statement-$80.0b-$146.8b
07/13/2018Import Price Index MoM0.10%0.60%
07/13/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.10%
07/13/2018Import Price Index YoY4.60%4.30%
07/13/2018Export Price Index MoM0.20%0.60%
07/13/2018Export Price Index YoY4.90%
07/13/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment9898.2
07/13/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions116.5
07/13/2018U. of Mich. Expectations86.3
07/13/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
07/13/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%
07/16/2018Retail Sales Advance MoM0.60%0.80%
07/16/2018Empire Manufacturing2025
07/16/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%0.90%
07/16/2018Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.80%
07/16/2018Retail Sales Control Group0.50%
07/16/2018Business Inventories0.40%0.30%
07/17/2018Industrial Production MoM0.60%-0.10%
07/17/2018Manufacturing (SIC) Production-0.70%
07/17/2018Capacity Utilization78.30%77.90%
07/17/2018NAHB Housing Market Index6968
07/17/2018Total Net TIC Flows$138.7b
07/17/2018Net Long-term TIC Flows$93.9b
07/18/2018MBA Mortgage Applications2.50%
07/18/2018Housing Starts1325k1350k
07/18/2018Housing Starts MoM-1.70%5.00%
07/18/2018Building Permits1323k1301k