July 12, 2021 Headlines

It’s been a quite open to start the week. Rates are slightly lower across the curve while equity futures are lower ahead of start of Q2 earnings season. Later today the Treasury will auction $58 billion of 3-year notes, $38 billion of 10-year bonds and the issuance of $24 billion in 30-year bonds tomorrow. Today’s auctions will be the first new issuance of coupon-bearing securities since June 25th. As was mentioned last week, the lower levels of supply were thought to have contributed to the rally in Treasuries as shorts were getting squeezed.

Today’s economic calendar is empty with no releases on the docket, but the week ahead includes data on inflation (CPI tomorrow and PPI on Wednesday) as well as Chairman Powell’s semi-annual Congressional appearance.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
07/13/21NFIB Small Business Optimism99.599.6
07/13/21CPI MoM0.50%0.60%
07/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.70%
07/13/21CPI YoY4.90%5.00%
07/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.00%3.80%
07/13/21CPI Index NSA270.713269.195
07/13/21CPI Core Index SA277.034275.718
07/13/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-2.20%-2.60%
07/13/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-2.80%-2.90%
07/13/21Monthly Budget Statement-$205.0b-$864.1b
07/14/21MBA Mortgage Applications-1.80%
07/14/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.60%0.80%
07/14/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.70%
07/14/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.50%0.70%
07/14/21PPI Final Demand YoY6.70%6.60%
07/14/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.10%4.80%
07/14/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY5.60%5.30%
07/14/21U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
07/15/21Empire Manufacturing1817.4
07/15/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2830.7
07/15/21Initial Jobless Claims350k373k
07/15/21Continuing Claims3300k3339k
07/15/21Import Price Index MoM1.10%1.10%
07/15/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.60%0.90%
07/15/21Import Price Index YoY11.20%11.30%
07/15/21Export Price Index MoM1.40%2.20%
07/15/21Export Price Index YoY16.30%17.40%
07/15/21Industrial Production MoM0.60%0.80%
07/15/21Capacity Utilization75.60%75.20%
07/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.20%0.90%
07/15/21Langer Consumer Comfort53.3
07/16/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.40%-1.30%
07/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%-0.70%
07/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%-0.80%
07/16/21Retail Sales Control Group0.40%-0.70%
07/16/21Business Inventories0.50%-0.20%
07/16/21U. of Mich. Sentiment86.585.5
07/16/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions88.6
07/16/21U. of Mich. Expectations83.5
07/16/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.10%4.20%
07/16/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%
07/16/21Total Net TIC Flows$101.2b
07/16/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$100.7b

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