July 12, 2021 Headlines

It’s been a quite open to start the week. Rates are slightly lower across the curve while equity futures are lower ahead of start of Q2 earnings season. Later today the Treasury will auction $58 billion of 3-year notes, $38 billion of 10-year bonds and the issuance of $24 billion in 30-year bonds tomorrow. Today’s auctions will be the first new issuance of coupon-bearing securities since June 25th. As was mentioned last week, the lower levels of supply were thought to have contributed to the rally in Treasuries as shorts were getting squeezed.

Today’s economic calendar is empty with no releases on the docket, but the week ahead includes data on inflation (CPI tomorrow and PPI on Wednesday) as well as Chairman Powell’s semi-annual Congressional appearance.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
07/13/21 NFIB Small Business Optimism 99.5 — 99.6 —
07/13/21 CPI MoM 0.50% — 0.60% —
07/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.40% — 0.70% —
07/13/21 CPI YoY 4.90% — 5.00% —
07/13/21 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 4.00% — 3.80% —
07/13/21 CPI Index NSA 270.713 — 269.195 —
07/13/21 CPI Core Index SA 277.034 — 275.718 —
07/13/21 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY — — -2.20% -2.60%
07/13/21 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY — — -2.80% -2.90%
07/13/21 Monthly Budget Statement -$205.0b — -$864.1b —
07/14/21 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -1.80% —
07/14/21 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.60% — 0.80% —
07/14/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.50% — 0.70% —
07/14/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.50% — 0.70% —
07/14/21 PPI Final Demand YoY 6.70% — 6.60% —
07/14/21 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 5.10% — 4.80% —
07/14/21 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 5.60% — 5.30% —
07/14/21 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
07/15/21 Empire Manufacturing 18 — 17.4 —
07/15/21 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 28 — 30.7 —
07/15/21 Initial Jobless Claims 350k — 373k —
07/15/21 Continuing Claims 3300k — 3339k —
07/15/21 Import Price Index MoM 1.10% — 1.10% —
07/15/21 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.60% — 0.90% —
07/15/21 Import Price Index YoY 11.20% — 11.30% —
07/15/21 Export Price Index MoM 1.40% — 2.20% —
07/15/21 Export Price Index YoY 16.30% — 17.40% —
07/15/21 Industrial Production MoM 0.60% — 0.80% —
07/15/21 Capacity Utilization 75.60% — 75.20% —
07/15/21 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.20% — 0.90% —
07/15/21 Langer Consumer Comfort — — 53.3 —
07/16/21 Retail Sales Advance MoM -0.40% — -1.30% —
07/16/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.40% — -0.70% —
07/16/21 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.40% — -0.80% —
07/16/21 Retail Sales Control Group 0.40% — -0.70% —
07/16/21 Business Inventories 0.50% — -0.20% —
07/16/21 U. of Mich. Sentiment 86.5 — 85.5 —
07/16/21 U. of Mich. Current Conditions — — 88.6 —
07/16/21 U. of Mich. Expectations — — 83.5 —
07/16/21 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 4.10% — 4.20% —
07/16/21 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation — — 2.80% —
07/16/21 Total Net TIC Flows — — $101.2b —
07/16/21 Net Long-term TIC Flows — — $100.7b —

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