July 12, 2022 Headlines

The Treasury rally continues with yields 4 to 7 bps lower this morning. The curve continues to flatten with the spread between the 2-year and 10-year now sitting at -11.6 bps, down 89 bps from the end of 2021, and the lowest level since 2006. Recession remains the topic du jour as investors fear as the Fed continues to aggressively tighten while an uptick in Covid cases could spark a new round of lockdowns in China.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised
07/12/22 NFIB Small Business Optimism 92.5 89.5 93.1
07/13/22 MBA Mortgage Applications -5.40%
07/13/22 CPI MoM 1.10% 1.00%
07/13/22 CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.50% 0.60%
07/13/22 CPI YoY 8.80% 8.60%
07/13/22 CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 5.70% 6.00%
07/13/22 CPI Index NSA 295.716 292.296
07/13/22 CPI Core Index SA 294.451 292.289
07/13/22 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY -3.00% -2.90%
07/13/22 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY -3.90% -4.00%
07/13/22 Monthly Budget Statement -$75.0b -$174.2b
07/13/22 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
07/14/22 PPI Final Demand MoM 0.80% 0.80%
07/14/22 PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM 0.50% 0.50%
07/14/22 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM 0.50% 0.50%
07/14/22 PPI Final Demand YoY 10.70% 10.80%
07/14/22 PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY 8.20% 8.30%
07/14/22 PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY 6.60% 6.80%
07/14/22 Initial Jobless Claims 235k 235k
07/14/22 Continuing Claims 1380k 1375k
07/15/22 Empire Manufacturing -2 -1.2
07/15/22 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.90% -0.30%
07/15/22 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.70% 0.50%
07/15/22 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.10% 0.10%
07/15/22 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% 0.00%
07/15/22 Import Price Index MoM 0.70% 0.60%
07/15/22 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM 0.10% -0.10%
07/15/22 Import Price Index YoY 11.40% 11.70%
07/15/22 Export Price Index MoM 1.10% 2.80%
07/15/22 Export Price Index YoY 18.90%
07/15/22 Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey
07/15/22 Capacity Utilization 80.70% 79.00% 80.80%
07/15/22 Industrial Production MoM 0.10% 0.20% 0.10%
07/15/22 Manufacturing (SIC) Production -0.10% -0.10%
07/15/22 Business Inventories 1.30% 1.20%
07/15/22 U. of Mich. Sentiment 50 50
07/15/22 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 53.8 53.8
07/15/22 U. of Mich. Expectations 47 47.5
07/15/22 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 5.30% 5.30%
07/15/22 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.00% 3.10%


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