Treasury prices are slightly lower this morning amid improved sentiment in global risk markets overnight. All major overseas equity indices are in the green today (Nikkei +1.2%, Shanghai +2.2%, Euro Stoxx +0.5%), and S&P 500 futures are currently up 17 points. Trade is still the biggest driver of current market swings, and headlines today suggesting U.S. and Chinese officials are willing to resume negotiations is the primary source of today’s action. ECB President Mario Draghi reportedly warned EU leaders that the economic impact of recent tariffs remains unknown, but he also noted that the central bank is concerned of stagflation risks (slowing growth coupled with price inflation). On the data front, headline CPI rose 0.1% in June, and excluding food and energy, core prices were up 0.2% m/m. On a year-over-year basis, headline CPI was up 2.9%, and core CPI rose 10 bps to 2.3% (as expected), the highest reading since January 2017.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

07/09Consumer Credit$12.000b$24.559b$9.262b$10.273b
07/10NFIB Small Business Optimism106.9107.2107.8
07/10JOLTS Job Openings6620663866986840
07/11MBA Mortgage Applications2.50%-0.50%
07/11PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.30%0.50%
07/11PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.30%
07/11PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.30%0.10%
07/11PPI Final Demand YoY3.10%3.40%3.10%
07/11PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%2.80%2.40%
07/11PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.70%2.60%
07/11Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.60%0.50%
07/11Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.50%2.50%0.80%1.40%
07/12Initial Jobless Claims225k214k231k232k
07/12Continuing Claims1730k1739k1739k1742k
07/12CPI MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%
07/12CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
07/12CPI YoY2.90%2.90%2.80%
07/12CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.30%2.20%
07/12CPI Index NSA252.092251.989251.588
07/12CPI Core Index SA257.361257.305256.889
07/12Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.20%0.30%
07/12Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.00%0.00%
07/12Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey (Table)
07/12Bloomberg Consumer Comfort57.6
07/12Monthly Budget Statement-$80.0b-$146.8b
07/13Import Price Index MoM0.10%0.60%
07/13Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%0.10%
07/13Import Price Index YoY4.60%4.30%
07/13Export Price Index MoM0.20%0.60%
07/13Export Price Index YoY4.90%
07/13U. of Mich. Sentiment9898.2
07/13U. of Mich. Current Conditions116.5
07/13U. of Mich. Expectations86.3
07/13U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
07/13U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%