Treasury prices traded higher through much of the overnight session on negative COVID headlines, but prices reversed course and are now lower this morning after reports surfaced that two pharmaceutical companies (Pfizer and BioNTech) received fast track designation for two vaccine candidates by the FDA. OPEC+ is expected to roll back some of the production cuts implemented in the wake of the COVID demand shock at its meeting this week, which has oil prices down more than 1% on the day. This week’s economic calendar is highlighted by June retail sales report (Thursday), and market participants will continue to monitor weekly jobless claims data (also Thursday) for any signs of an uptick amid the recent virus activity in some more populous states. New York Fed President John Williams is participating in a discussion on Libor transition this morning hosted by the Fed and the Bank of England.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 7/13/2020 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$863.0b | — | -$8.5b | — |
| 7/14/2020 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 97.8 | — | 94.4 | — |
| 7/14/2020 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 7.40% | 7.30% |
| 7/14/2020 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 6.50% | 6.40% |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI MoM | 0.50% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.10% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI YoY | 0.60% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.10% | — | 1.20% | — |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI Index NSA | 257.706 | — | 256.394 | — |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI Core Index SA | 265.8 | — | 265.441 | — |
| 7/15/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 2.20% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Import Price Index MoM | 1.00% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Import Price Index YoY | -3.50% | — | -6.00% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.80% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Empire Manufacturing | 10 | — | -0.2 | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | -6.00% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Capacity Utilization | 67.70% | — | 64.80% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Industrial Production MoM | 4.40% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 5.80% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 7/16/2020 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 5.00% | — | 17.70% | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 5.00% | — | 12.40% | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 5.00% | — | 12.40% | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Retail Sales Control Group | 3.90% | — | 11.00% | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 20 | — | 27.5 | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 1250k | — | 1314k | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Continuing Claims | 17600k | — | 18062k | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 42.9 | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Business Inventories | -2.30% | — | -1.30% | — |
| 7/16/2020 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 60 | — | 58 | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | -$128.4b | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $125.3b | — |
| 7/17/2020 | Building Permits | 1295k | — | 1220k | 1216k |
| 7/17/2020 | Building Permits MoM | 6.50% | — | 14.40% | 14.10% |
| 7/17/2020 | Housing Starts | 1180k | — | 974k | — |
| 7/17/2020 | Housing Starts MoM | 21.20% | — | 4.30% | — |
| 7/17/2020 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 79 | — | 78.1 | — |
| 7/17/2020 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 87.1 | — |
| 7/17/2020 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 72.3 | — |
| 7/17/2020 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 7/17/2020 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
Subscribe Today!
Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.