July 13, 2021 Headlines

The big news this morning is the surge in CPI last month, as prices jumped 0.9% in June and 5.4% year-over-year. Both measures surprised to the upside, with the consensus calling for a 0.5% bounce from the prior month, and 4.9% jump year-over-year. The so-called core CPI, which excludes energy and food, rose 4.5% from June of last year, the largest increase since 1991. The biggest culprits for the surprise gain were used vehicles, and rebounds in prices across leisure and hospitality, largely associated with the U.S. reopening process. During the heavily traveled summer months, hotel stays, car rentals, and airfare prices all rose. The company line from Chairman Powell is that these increases will normalize, and inflationary pressures will be transitory. Though, he recently acknowledged sustained production bottlenecks and hiring difficulties may increase the likelihood of more sustained pricing pressure.

Michael Oravetz
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
7/13/2021NFIB Small Business Optimism99.5102.599.6
7/13/2021CPI MoM0.50%0.90%0.60%
7/13/2021CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.90%0.70%
7/13/2021CPI YoY4.90%5.40%5.00%
7/13/2021CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.00%4.50%3.80%
7/13/2021CPI Index NSA270.702271.696269.195
7/13/2021CPI Core Index SA277.034278.14275.718
7/13/2021Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-1.40%-2.20%-2.60%
7/13/2021Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-1.70%-2.80%-2.90%
7/13/2021Monthly Budget Statement-$192.0b-$864.1b
7/14/2021MBA Mortgage Applications-1.80%
7/14/2021PPI Final Demand MoM0.60%0.80%
7/14/2021PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%0.70%
7/14/2021PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.50%0.70%
7/14/2021PPI Final Demand YoY6.70%6.60%
7/14/2021PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.10%4.80%
7/14/2021PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY5.60%5.30%
7/14/2021U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
7/15/2021Empire Manufacturing1817.4
7/15/2021Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2830.7
7/15/2021Initial Jobless Claims350k373k
7/15/2021Continuing Claims3300k3339k
7/15/2021Import Price Index MoM1.10%1.10%
7/15/2021Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.60%0.90%
7/15/2021Import Price Index YoY11.10%11.30%
7/15/2021Export Price Index MoM1.40%2.20%
7/15/2021Export Price Index YoY16.30%17.40%
7/15/2021Industrial Production MoM0.60%0.80%
7/15/2021Capacity Utilization75.60%75.20%
7/15/2021Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.90%
7/15/2021Langer Consumer Comfort53.3
7/16/2021Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.40%-1.30%
7/16/2021Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%-0.70%
7/16/2021Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.60%-0.80%
7/16/2021Retail Sales Control Group0.40%-0.70%
7/16/2021Business Inventories0.50%-0.20%
7/16/2021U. of Mich. Sentiment86.585.5
7/16/2021U. of Mich. Current Conditions91.588.6
7/16/2021U. of Mich. Expectations8583.5
7/16/2021U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.20%4.20%
7/16/2021U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%
7/16/2021Total Net TIC Flows$101.2b
7/16/2021Net Long-term TIC Flows$100.7b

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