Treasury prices were slightly higher overnight following President Trump’s criticism of British Prime Minister May’s current Brexit plan, suggesting that it will make a U.S./U.K. trade agreement more difficult going forward. The pound sterling is 50-60 bps weaker versus the dollar following the comments, and S&P 500 futures are essentially unchanged at the moment. China’s trade surplus with the U.S. hit a record high in June, with exporters likely rushing to beat any new tariffs from the U.S. The same report showed weaker Chinese imports, which is a sign of slowing consumer demand in the world’s second largest economy.  Next week’s economic calendar will be headlined by the June retail sales report (Tuesday) and Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual testimony before Congress (Tuesday and Wednesday).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
07/09/2018Consumer Credit$12.000b$24.559b$9.262b$10.273b
07/10/2018NFIB Small Business Optimism106.9107.2107.8
07/10/2018JOLTS Job Openings6620663866986840
07/11/2018MBA Mortgage Applications2.50%-0.50%
07/11/2018PPI Final Demand MoM0.20%0.30%0.50%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%0.30%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.30%0.10%
07/11/2018PPI Final Demand YoY3.10%3.40%3.10%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.60%2.80%2.40%
07/11/2018PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY2.70%2.60%
07/11/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.60%0.50%
07/11/2018Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.50%2.50%0.80%1.40%
07/12/2018Initial Jobless Claims225k214k231k232k
07/12/2018Continuing Claims1730k1739k1739k1742k
07/12/2018CPI MoM0.20%0.10%0.20%
07/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%0.20%
07/12/2018CPI YoY2.90%2.90%2.80%
07/12/2018CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.30%2.20%
07/12/2018CPI Index NSA252.092251.989251.588
07/12/2018CPI Core Index SA257.361257.305256.889
07/12/2018Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.20%0.30%
07/12/2018Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.00%0.00%
07/12/2018Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey (Table)
07/12/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort5857.6
07/12/2018Monthly Budget Statement-$80.0b-$74.9b-$90.2b
07/13/2018Import Price Index MoM0.10%-0.40%0.60%0.90%
07/13/2018Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.20%-0.30%0.10%
07/13/2018Import Price Index YoY4.60%4.30%4.30%4.50%
07/13/2018Export Price Index MoM0.20%0.30%0.60%
07/13/2018Export Price Index YoY5.30%4.90%
07/13/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment9898.2
07/13/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions116.5
07/13/2018U. of Mich. Expectations86.3
07/13/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.00%
07/13/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%