Treasury prices were slightly higher overnight following President Trump’s criticism of British Prime Minister May’s current Brexit plan, suggesting that it will make a U.S./U.K. trade agreement more difficult going forward. The pound sterling is 50-60 bps weaker versus the dollar following the comments, and S&P 500 futures are essentially unchanged at the moment. China’s trade surplus with the U.S. hit a record high in June, with exporters likely rushing to beat any new tariffs from the U.S. The same report showed weaker Chinese imports, which is a sign of slowing consumer demand in the world’s second largest economy. Next week’s economic calendar will be headlined by the June retail sales report (Tuesday) and Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual testimony before Congress (Tuesday and Wednesday).
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 07/09/2018 | Consumer Credit | $12.000b | $24.559b | $9.262b | $10.273b |
| 07/10/2018 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 106.9 | 107.2 | 107.8 | — |
| 07/10/2018 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6620 | 6638 | 6698 | 6840 |
| 07/11/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 2.50% | -0.50% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.50% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.30% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.10% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 3.10% | 3.40% | 3.10% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.60% | 2.80% | 2.40% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | 2.70% | 2.60% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | 0.60% | 0.50% | — |
| 07/11/2018 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | 0.50% | 2.50% | 0.80% | 1.40% |
| 07/12/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | 214k | 231k | 232k |
| 07/12/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1730k | 1739k | 1739k | 1742k |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI MoM | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.20% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI YoY | 2.90% | 2.90% | 2.80% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 2.30% | 2.30% | 2.20% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI Index NSA | 252.092 | 251.989 | 251.588 | — |
| 07/12/2018 | CPI Core Index SA | 257.361 | 257.305 | 256.889 | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 0.20% | 0.30% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 0.00% | 0.00% | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Bloomberg May United States Economic Survey (Table) | ||||
| 07/12/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | 58 | 57.6 | — |
| 07/12/2018 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$80.0b | -$74.9b | -$90.2b | — |
| 07/13/2018 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.10% | -0.40% | 0.60% | 0.90% |
| 07/13/2018 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.20% | -0.30% | 0.10% | — |
| 07/13/2018 | Import Price Index YoY | 4.60% | 4.30% | 4.30% | 4.50% |
| 07/13/2018 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.60% | — |
| 07/13/2018 | Export Price Index YoY | — | 5.30% | 4.90% | — |
| 07/13/2018 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 98 | — | 98.2 | — |
| 07/13/2018 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 116.5 | — |
| 07/13/2018 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 86.3 | — |
| 07/13/2018 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 07/13/2018 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.60% | — |