July 14, 2020 Headlines
A modest risk-off tone is pushing Treasury prices higher across the curve this morning and equity futures lower. California is reinstating broad lockdowns again to combat a surge in COVID-19 cases. On the Q2 corporate earnings front, JP Morgan and Citi both beat analyst estimates due to strong trading revenues, but Wells Fargo underperformed expectations, posting its first quarterly loss since 2008. Consumer price growth was a bit hotter than expected in June according to the CPI report released this morning. Core prices were up 0.2% m/m (0.1% expected) and 1.2% on a year-over-year basis (1.1% expected).
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 7/14/2020 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 97.8 | 100.6 | 94.4 | — |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI MoM | 0.50% | 0.60% | -0.10% | — |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.10% | 0.20% | -0.10% | — |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI YoY | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.10% | — |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.10% | 1.20% | 1.20% | — |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI Index NSA | 257.71 | 257.8 | 256.394 | — |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI Core Index SA | 265.88 | 266.07 | 265.441 | — |
| 7/14/2020 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 4.30% | 6.50% | 6.40% |
| 7/14/2020 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 4.60% | 7.40% | 7.30% |
| 7/15/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 2.20% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Import Price Index MoM | 1.00% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Import Price Index YoY | -3.70% | — | -6.00% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.80% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Empire Manufacturing | 10 | — | -0.2 | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | -6.00% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Capacity Utilization | 67.80% | — | 64.80% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Industrial Production MoM | 4.40% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 5.60% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 7/16/2020 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 5.00% | — | 17.70% | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 5.00% | — | 12.40% | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 5.00% | — | 12.40% | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Retail Sales Control Group | 4.00% | — | 11.00% | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 20 | — | 27.5 | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 1250k | — | 1314k | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Continuing Claims | 17500k | — | 18062k | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 42.9 | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Business Inventories | -2.30% | — | -1.30% | — |
| 7/16/2020 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 61 | — | 58 | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | -$128.4b | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $125.3b | — |
| 7/17/2020 | Building Permits | 1290k | — | 1220k | 1216k |
| 7/17/2020 | Building Permits MoM | 6.10% | — | 14.40% | 14.10% |
| 7/17/2020 | Housing Starts | 1180k | — | 974k | — |
| 7/17/2020 | Housing Starts MoM | 21.20% | — | 4.30% | — |
| 7/17/2020 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 79 | — | 78.1 | — |
| 7/17/2020 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 86.8 | — | 87.1 | — |
| 7/17/2020 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 74 | — | 72.3 | — |
| 7/17/2020 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.80% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 7/17/2020 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
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