July 14, 2021 Headlines

Long-end Treasury yields are lower this morning, the 10-year is 3 bps lower; equities are mixed. Futures on the Dow and S&P are both up ahead of the open while the NASDAQ is in the red. PPI for June exceed expectations, coming in at an increase of 1% MoM vs the median forecast of 0.6%. On YoY basis, PPI is up 7.3%. Complications with global supply chains and increasing commodity costs have driven up the cost of production.

The MBA mortgage applications index showed an uptick in mortgage activity with a 16% increase last week. Purchase apps were up 8.3% while refis increased by 20.4% as mortgage rates fell. The average 30-year contract rate fell to 3.09, its lowest level since the middle of February.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

07/13/21NFIB Small Business Optimism99.5102.599.6
07/13/21CPI MoM0.50%0.90%0.60%
07/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.90%0.70%
07/13/21CPI YoY4.90%5.40%5.00%
07/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.00%4.50%3.80%
07/13/21CPI Index NSA270.702271.696269.195
07/13/21CPI Core Index SA277.034278.14275.718
07/13/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-1.40%-2.20%-2.60%
07/13/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-1.70%-2.80%-2.90%
07/13/21Monthly Budget Statement-$194.0b-$174.2b-$864.1b
07/14/21MBA Mortgage Applications16.00%-1.80%
07/14/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.60%1.00%0.80%
07/14/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%1.00%0.70%
07/14/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.50%0.50%0.70%
07/14/21PPI Final Demand YoY6.70%7.30%6.60%
07/14/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.10%5.60%4.80%
07/14/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY5.60%5.50%5.30%
07/14/21U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
07/15/21Empire Manufacturing1817.4
07/15/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2830.7
07/15/21Initial Jobless Claims350k373k
07/15/21Continuing Claims3300k3339k
07/15/21Import Price Index MoM1.10%1.10%
07/15/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.60%0.90%
07/15/21Import Price Index YoY11.10%11.30%
07/15/21Export Price Index MoM1.40%2.20%
07/15/21Export Price Index YoY16.30%17.40%
07/15/21Industrial Production MoM0.60%0.80%
07/15/21Capacity Utilization75.60%75.20%
07/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.90%
07/15/21Langer Consumer Comfort53.3
07/16/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.40%-1.30%
07/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%-0.70%
07/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.60%-0.80%
07/16/21Retail Sales Control Group0.40%-0.70%
07/16/21Business Inventories0.50%-0.20%
07/16/21U. of Mich. Sentiment86.585.5
07/16/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions91.588.6
07/16/21U. of Mich. Expectations8583.5
07/16/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.20%4.20%
07/16/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%
07/16/21Total Net TIC Flows$101.2b
07/16/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$100.7b

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