Long-end Treasury yields are lower this morning, the 10-year is 3 bps lower; equities are mixed. Futures on the Dow and S&P are both up ahead of the open while the NASDAQ is in the red. PPI for June exceed expectations, coming in at an increase of 1% MoM vs the median forecast of 0.6%. On YoY basis, PPI is up 7.3%. Complications with global supply chains and increasing commodity costs have driven up the cost of production.
The MBA mortgage applications index showed an uptick in mortgage activity with a 16% increase last week. Purchase apps were up 8.3% while refis increased by 20.4% as mortgage rates fell. The average 30-year contract rate fell to 3.09, its lowest level since the middle of February.
Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
07/13/21 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 99.5 | 102.5 | 99.6 | — |
07/13/21 | CPI MoM | 0.50% | 0.90% | 0.60% | — |
07/13/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.40% | 0.90% | 0.70% | — |
07/13/21 | CPI YoY | 4.90% | 5.40% | 5.00% | — |
07/13/21 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 4.00% | 4.50% | 3.80% | — |
07/13/21 | CPI Index NSA | 270.702 | 271.696 | 269.195 | — |
07/13/21 | CPI Core Index SA | 277.034 | 278.14 | 275.718 | — |
07/13/21 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | -1.40% | -2.20% | -2.60% |
07/13/21 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | -1.70% | -2.80% | -2.90% |
07/13/21 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$194.0b | -$174.2b | -$864.1b | — |
07/14/21 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 16.00% | -1.80% | — |
07/14/21 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.60% | 1.00% | 0.80% | — |
07/14/21 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.50% | 1.00% | 0.70% | — |
07/14/21 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.70% | — |
07/14/21 | PPI Final Demand YoY | 6.70% | 7.30% | 6.60% | — |
07/14/21 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 5.10% | 5.60% | 4.80% | — |
07/14/21 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | 5.60% | 5.50% | 5.30% | — |
07/14/21 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
07/15/21 | Empire Manufacturing | 18 | — | 17.4 | — |
07/15/21 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 28 | — | 30.7 | — |
07/15/21 | Initial Jobless Claims | 350k | — | 373k | — |
07/15/21 | Continuing Claims | 3300k | — | 3339k | — |
07/15/21 | Import Price Index MoM | 1.10% | — | 1.10% | — |
07/15/21 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.90% | — |
07/15/21 | Import Price Index YoY | 11.10% | — | 11.30% | — |
07/15/21 | Export Price Index MoM | 1.40% | — | 2.20% | — |
07/15/21 | Export Price Index YoY | 16.30% | — | 17.40% | — |
07/15/21 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.60% | — | 0.80% | — |
07/15/21 | Capacity Utilization | 75.60% | — | 75.20% | — |
07/15/21 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | — | 0.90% | — |
07/15/21 | Langer Consumer Comfort | — | — | 53.3 | — |
07/16/21 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | -0.40% | — | -1.30% | — |
07/16/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.40% | — | -0.70% | — |
07/16/21 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.60% | — | -0.80% | — |
07/16/21 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | — | -0.70% | — |
07/16/21 | Business Inventories | 0.50% | — | -0.20% | — |
07/16/21 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 86.5 | — | 85.5 | — |
07/16/21 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 91.5 | — | 88.6 | — |
07/16/21 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 85 | — | 83.5 | — |
07/16/21 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 4.20% | — | 4.20% | — |
07/16/21 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% | — |
07/16/21 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $101.2b | — |
07/16/21 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $100.7b | — |
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