July 14, 2021 Headlines

Long-end Treasury yields are lower this morning, the 10-year is 3 bps lower; equities are mixed. Futures on the Dow and S&P are both up ahead of the open while the NASDAQ is in the red. PPI for June exceed expectations, coming in at an increase of 1% MoM vs the median forecast of 0.6%. On YoY basis, PPI is up 7.3%. Complications with global supply chains and increasing commodity costs have driven up the cost of production.

The MBA mortgage applications index showed an uptick in mortgage activity with a 16% increase last week. Purchase apps were up 8.3% while refis increased by 20.4% as mortgage rates fell. The average 30-year contract rate fell to 3.09, its lowest level since the middle of February.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
07/13/21NFIB Small Business Optimism99.5102.599.6
07/13/21CPI MoM0.50%0.90%0.60%
07/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.90%0.70%
07/13/21CPI YoY4.90%5.40%5.00%
07/13/21CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.00%4.50%3.80%
07/13/21CPI Index NSA270.702271.696269.195
07/13/21CPI Core Index SA277.034278.14275.718
07/13/21Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY-1.40%-2.20%-2.60%
07/13/21Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY-1.70%-2.80%-2.90%
07/13/21Monthly Budget Statement-$194.0b-$174.2b-$864.1b
07/14/21MBA Mortgage Applications16.00%-1.80%
07/14/21PPI Final Demand MoM0.60%1.00%0.80%
07/14/21PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.50%1.00%0.70%
07/14/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.50%0.50%0.70%
07/14/21PPI Final Demand YoY6.70%7.30%6.60%
07/14/21PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY5.10%5.60%4.80%
07/14/21PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY5.60%5.50%5.30%
07/14/21U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
07/15/21Empire Manufacturing1817.4
07/15/21Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2830.7
07/15/21Initial Jobless Claims350k373k
07/15/21Continuing Claims3300k3339k
07/15/21Import Price Index MoM1.10%1.10%
07/15/21Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.60%0.90%
07/15/21Import Price Index YoY11.10%11.30%
07/15/21Export Price Index MoM1.40%2.20%
07/15/21Export Price Index YoY16.30%17.40%
07/15/21Industrial Production MoM0.60%0.80%
07/15/21Capacity Utilization75.60%75.20%
07/15/21Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.90%
07/15/21Langer Consumer Comfort53.3
07/16/21Retail Sales Advance MoM-0.40%-1.30%
07/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%-0.70%
07/16/21Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.60%-0.80%
07/16/21Retail Sales Control Group0.40%-0.70%
07/16/21Business Inventories0.50%-0.20%
07/16/21U. of Mich. Sentiment86.585.5
07/16/21U. of Mich. Current Conditions91.588.6
07/16/21U. of Mich. Expectations8583.5
07/16/21U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.20%4.20%
07/16/21U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%
07/16/21Total Net TIC Flows$101.2b
07/16/21Net Long-term TIC Flows$100.7b

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.