July 14, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are modestly higher to start the day following hawkish comments from Fed Governor Waller last night. Waller suggested that two more rate hikes over the next four meetings would be necessary to keep the Fed moving toward its inflation target. This statement effectively confirms that the Fed has shifted to an every-other-meeting approach to rate hikes for the time being, implying July and November rate hikes. Beyond monetary policy, much attention will be paid to bank earnings reports over the next week or so. Reports from the biggest banks are out this morning, and earnings metrics were generally better than expected for JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup. However, management teams for all three banks mentioned signs of slowing spending patterns by consumers and rising delinquencies and charge-offs. The bigger hurdle for financial markets will be the regional bank reports, which will begin next week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
7/14/23 Import Price Index MoM -0.10% -0.20% -0.60% -0.40%
7/14/23 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.20% -0.30% -0.20%
7/14/23 Import Price Index YoY -6.10% -6.10% -5.90% -5.70%
7/14/23 Export Price Index MoM -0.10% -0.90% -1.90%
7/14/23 Export Price Index YoY -11.00% -12.00% -10.10% -10.20%
7/14/23 U. of Mich. Sentiment 65.5 64.4
7/14/23 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 70.5 69
7/14/23 U. of Mich. Expectations 62 61.5
7/14/23 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.10% 3.30%
7/14/23 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.00% 3.00%
7/17/23 Empire Manufacturing -5.3 6.6
7/18/23 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.50% 0.30%
7/18/23 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.30% 0.10%
7/18/23 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.40% 0.40%
7/18/23 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% 0.20%
7/18/23 New York Fed Services Business Activity -5.2
7/18/23 Industrial Production MoM 0.10% -0.20%
7/18/23 Capacity Utilization 79.50% 79.60%
7/18/23 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.00% 0.10%
7/18/23 Business Inventories 0.20% 0.20%
7/18/23 NAHB Housing Market Index 56 55
7/18/23 Net Long-term TIC Flows $127.8b
7/18/23 Total Net TIC Flows $48.4b
7/19/23 MBA Mortgage Applications 0.90%
7/19/23 Building Permits 1490k 1491k 1496k
7/19/23 Building Permits MoM -0.40% 5.20% 5.60%
7/19/23 Housing Starts 1470k 1631k
7/19/23 Housing Starts MoM -9.90% 21.70%
7/20/23 Initial Jobless Claims 245k 237k
7/20/23 Continuing Claims 1729k
7/20/23 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook -10 -13.7
7/20/23 Existing Home Sales 4.22m 4.30m
7/20/23 Existing Home Sales MoM -1.90% 0.20%
7/20/23 Leading Index -0.60% -0.70%
7/21/23 Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey

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