An improved risk tone has emerged in financial markets this morning on more positive vaccine headlines. Treasury prices were higher at one point overnight following President Trump’s decision to end the special trade status with Hong Kong, but a later report that a University of Oxford vaccine trial was yielding positive results helped reverse the price action in both Treasuries and equity futures. In housing-related news, mortgage refinance activity remains robust. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 5.1% for the week ended July 10, boosted by a 11.9% increase in refi applications. According to the survey, the average contract rate for both 15-year and 30-year loans fell 7 bps from the prior week to 3.19% and 2.70%, respectively.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 7/13/2020 | Monthly Budget Statement | -$863.0b | -$864.1b | -$8.5b | — |
| 7/14/2020 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 97.8 | 100.6 | 94.4 | — |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI MoM | 0.50% | 0.60% | -0.10% | — |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.10% | 0.20% | -0.10% | — |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI YoY | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.10% | — |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 1.10% | 1.20% | 1.20% | — |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI Index NSA | 257.706 | 257.797 | 256.394 | — |
| 7/14/2020 | CPI Core Index SA | 265.884 | 266.065 | 265.441 | — |
| 7/14/2020 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | 4.30% | 6.50% | 6.40% |
| 7/14/2020 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | 4.60% | 7.40% | 7.30% |
| 7/15/2020 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 5.10% | 2.20% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Empire Manufacturing | 10 | 17.2 | -0.2 | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Import Price Index MoM | 1.00% | 1.40% | 1.00% | 0.80% |
| 7/15/2020 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 7/15/2020 | Import Price Index YoY | -3.70% | -3.80% | -6.00% | -6.20% |
| 7/15/2020 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.80% | 1.40% | 0.50% | 0.40% |
| 7/15/2020 | Export Price Index YoY | — | -4.40% | -6.00% | -6.20% |
| 7/15/2020 | Industrial Production MoM | 4.30% | 5.40% | 1.40% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | Capacity Utilization | 67.80% | 68.60% | 64.80% | 65.10% |
| 7/15/2020 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 5.70% | 7.20% | 3.80% | — |
| 7/15/2020 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 7/16/2020 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 5.00% | — | 17.70% | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 5.00% | — | 12.40% | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 5.00% | — | 12.40% | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Retail Sales Control Group | 4.00% | — | 11.00% | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 20 | — | 27.5 | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Initial Jobless Claims | 1250k | — | 1314k | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Continuing Claims | 17500k | — | 18062k | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 42.9 | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Business Inventories | -2.30% | — | -1.30% | — |
| 7/16/2020 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 61 | — | 58 | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | -$128.4b | — |
| 7/16/2020 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $125.3b | — |
| 7/17/2020 | Building Permits | 1290k | — | 1220k | 1216k |
| 7/17/2020 | Building Permits MoM | 6.10% | — | 14.40% | 14.10% |
| 7/17/2020 | Housing Starts | 1180k | — | 974k | — |
| 7/17/2020 | Housing Starts MoM | 21.20% | — | 4.30% | — |
| 7/17/2020 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 79 | — | 78.1 | — |
| 7/17/2020 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 86.8 | — | 87.1 | — |
| 7/17/2020 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 74 | — | 72.3 | — |
| 7/17/2020 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 2.80% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 7/17/2020 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.50% | — |
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