July 15, 2020 Headlines

An improved risk tone has emerged in financial markets this morning on more positive vaccine headlines. Treasury prices were higher at one point overnight following President Trump’s decision to end the special trade status with Hong Kong, but a later report that a University of Oxford vaccine trial was yielding positive results helped reverse the price action in both Treasuries and equity futures. In housing-related news, mortgage refinance activity remains robust. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 5.1% for the week ended July 10, boosted by a 11.9% increase in refi applications. According to the survey, the average contract rate for both 15-year and 30-year loans fell 7 bps from the prior week to 3.19% and 2.70%, respectively.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

7/13/2020Monthly Budget Statement-$863.0b-$864.1b-$8.5b
7/14/2020NFIB Small Business Optimism97.8100.694.4
7/14/2020CPI MoM0.50%0.60%-0.10%
7/14/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.10%0.20%-0.10%
7/14/2020CPI YoY0.60%0.60%0.10%
7/14/2020CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY1.10%1.20%1.20%
7/14/2020CPI Index NSA257.706257.797256.394
7/14/2020CPI Core Index SA265.884266.065265.441
7/14/2020Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY4.30%6.50%6.40%
7/14/2020Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY4.60%7.40%7.30%
7/15/2020MBA Mortgage Applications5.10%2.20%
7/15/2020Empire Manufacturing1017.2-0.2
7/15/2020Import Price Index MoM1.00%1.40%1.00%0.80%
7/15/2020Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.10%0.30%0.10%0.20%
7/15/2020Import Price Index YoY-3.70%-3.80%-6.00%-6.20%
7/15/2020Export Price Index MoM0.80%1.40%0.50%0.40%
7/15/2020Export Price Index YoY-4.40%-6.00%-6.20%
7/15/2020Industrial Production MoM4.30%5.40%1.40%
7/15/2020Capacity Utilization67.80%68.60%64.80%65.10%
7/15/2020Manufacturing (SIC) Production5.70%7.20%3.80%
7/15/2020U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
7/16/2020Retail Sales Advance MoM5.00%17.70%
7/16/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM5.00%12.40%
7/16/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas5.00%12.40%
7/16/2020Retail Sales Control Group4.00%11.00%
7/16/2020Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2027.5
7/16/2020Initial Jobless Claims1250k1314k
7/16/2020Continuing Claims17500k18062k
7/16/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort42.9
7/16/2020Business Inventories-2.30%-1.30%
7/16/2020NAHB Housing Market Index6158
7/16/2020Net Long-term TIC Flows-$128.4b
7/16/2020Total Net TIC Flows$125.3b
7/17/2020Building Permits1290k1220k1216k
7/17/2020Building Permits MoM6.10%14.40%14.10%
7/17/2020Housing Starts1180k974k
7/17/2020Housing Starts MoM21.20%4.30%
7/17/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment7978.1
7/17/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions86.887.1
7/17/2020U. of Mich. Expectations7472.3
7/17/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%3.00%
7/17/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.50%


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