July 16, 2019 Headlines

After reaching a new high on Monday, S&P 500 futures trimmed overnight gains and US Treasuries are weaker on the back of better than expected retail sales. The headline US retail sales number showed a .4% increase MoM beating survey estimates of .2%. Sales in the control group, which is viewed by some analysts as a more accurate gauge of demand, doubled expectations at .7% MoM and provided an upward revision to the prior month. The strength in retail sales supports Fed Chairman Powell’s congressional testimony last week that consumer spending has driven growth. However, comments about current headwinds and acknowledging publicly that officials have possibly tightened monetary policy too much have set expectations of an upcoming rate cut.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

7/15/2019Empire Manufacturing24.3-8.6
7/16/2019Import Price Index MoM-0.60%-0.90%-0.30%0.00%
7/16/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.20%-0.40%-0.30%
7/16/2019Import Price Index YoY-2.30%-2.00%-1.50%-1.10%
7/16/2019Export Price Index MoM-0.20%-0.70%-0.20%
7/16/2019Export Price Index YoY-1.60%-0.70%-0.80%
7/16/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.20%0.40%0.50%0.40%
7/16/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.10%0.40%0.50%0.40%
7/16/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.70%0.50%
7/16/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.70%0.50%0.60%
7/16/2019Industrial Production MoM0.10%0.00%0.40%
7/16/2019Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.40%0.20%
7/16/2019Capacity Utilization78.10%77.90%78.10%
7/16/2019NAHB Housing Market Index646564
7/16/2019Business Inventories0.30%0.30%0.50%
7/16/2019Net Long-term TIC Flows$46.9b
7/16/2019Total Net TIC Flows-$7.8b
7/17/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-2.40%
7/17/2019Housing Starts1260k1269k
7/17/2019Housing Starts MoM-0.70%-0.90%
7/17/2019Building Permits1300k1294k1299k
7/17/2019Building Permits MoM0.10%0.30%0.70%
7/17/2019U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
7/18/2019Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook50.3
7/18/2019Initial Jobless Claims216k209k
7/18/2019Continuing Claims1700k1723k
7/18/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort63.8
7/18/2019Bloomberg Economic Expectations50.5
7/18/2019Leading Index0.10%0.00%
7/19/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment98.798.2
7/19/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions111.9
7/19/2019U. of Mich. Expectations89.3
7/19/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.70%
7/19/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.30%









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