July 16, 2019 Headlines

After reaching a new high on Monday, S&P 500 futures trimmed overnight gains and US Treasuries are weaker on the back of better than expected retail sales. The headline US retail sales number showed a .4% increase MoM beating survey estimates of .2%. Sales in the control group, which is viewed by some analysts as a more accurate gauge of demand, doubled expectations at .7% MoM and provided an upward revision to the prior month. The strength in retail sales supports Fed Chairman Powell’s congressional testimony last week that consumer spending has driven growth. However, comments about current headwinds and acknowledging publicly that officials have possibly tightened monetary policy too much have set expectations of an upcoming rate cut.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
7/15/2019	Empire Manufacturing	2	4.3	-8.6	—
7/16/2019	Import Price Index MoM	-0.60%	-0.90%	-0.30%	0.00%
7/16/2019	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.20%	-0.40%	-0.30%	—
7/16/2019	Import Price Index YoY	-2.30%	-2.00%	-1.50%	-1.10%
7/16/2019	Export Price Index MoM	-0.20%	-0.70%	-0.20%	—
7/16/2019	Export Price Index YoY	—	-1.60%	-0.70%	-0.80%
7/16/2019	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.20%	0.40%	0.50%	0.40%
7/16/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.10%	0.40%	0.50%	0.40%
7/16/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.30%	0.70%	0.50%	—
7/16/2019	Retail Sales Control Group	0.30%	0.70%	0.50%	0.60%
7/16/2019	Industrial Production MoM	0.10%	0.00%	0.40%	—
7/16/2019	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.30%	0.40%	0.20%	—
7/16/2019	Capacity Utilization	78.10%	77.90%	78.10%	—
7/16/2019	NAHB Housing Market Index	64	65	64	—
7/16/2019	Business Inventories	0.30%	0.30%	0.50%	—
7/16/2019	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	—	$46.9b	—
7/16/2019	Total Net TIC Flows	—	—	-$7.8b	—
7/17/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-2.40%	—
7/17/2019	Housing Starts	1260k	—	1269k	—
7/17/2019	Housing Starts MoM	-0.70%	—	-0.90%	—
7/17/2019	Building Permits	1300k	—	1294k	1299k
7/17/2019	Building Permits MoM	0.10%	—	0.30%	0.70%
7/17/2019	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
7/18/2019	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	5	—	0.3	—
7/18/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	216k	—	209k	—
7/18/2019	Continuing Claims	1700k	—	1723k	—
7/18/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	63.8	—
7/18/2019	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	—	50.5	—
7/18/2019	Leading Index	0.10%	—	0.00%	—
7/19/2019	U. of Mich. Sentiment	98.7	—	98.2	—
7/19/2019	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	111.9	—
7/19/2019	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	89.3	—
7/19/2019	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.70%	—
7/19/2019	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.30%	—

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