July 16, 2019 Headlines

After reaching a new high on Monday, S&P 500 futures trimmed overnight gains and US Treasuries are weaker on the back of better than expected retail sales. The headline US retail sales number showed a .4% increase MoM beating survey estimates of .2%. Sales in the control group, which is viewed by some analysts as a more accurate gauge of demand, doubled expectations at .7% MoM and provided an upward revision to the prior month. The strength in retail sales supports Fed Chairman Powell’s congressional testimony last week that consumer spending has driven growth. However, comments about current headwinds and acknowledging publicly that officials have possibly tightened monetary policy too much have set expectations of an upcoming rate cut.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
7/15/2019 Empire Manufacturing 2 4.3 -8.6
7/16/2019 Import Price Index MoM -0.60% -0.90% -0.30% 0.00%
7/16/2019 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM -0.20% -0.40% -0.30%
7/16/2019 Import Price Index YoY -2.30% -2.00% -1.50% -1.10%
7/16/2019 Export Price Index MoM -0.20% -0.70% -0.20%
7/16/2019 Export Price Index YoY -1.60% -0.70% -0.80%
7/16/2019 Retail Sales Advance MoM 0.20% 0.40% 0.50% 0.40%
7/16/2019 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 0.10% 0.40% 0.50% 0.40%
7/16/2019 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 0.30% 0.70% 0.50%
7/16/2019 Retail Sales Control Group 0.30% 0.70% 0.50% 0.60%
7/16/2019 Industrial Production MoM 0.10% 0.00% 0.40%
7/16/2019 Manufacturing (SIC) Production 0.30% 0.40% 0.20%
7/16/2019 Capacity Utilization 78.10% 77.90% 78.10%
7/16/2019 NAHB Housing Market Index 64 65 64
7/16/2019 Business Inventories 0.30% 0.30% 0.50%
7/16/2019 Net Long-term TIC Flows $46.9b
7/16/2019 Total Net TIC Flows -$7.8b
7/17/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications -2.40%
7/17/2019 Housing Starts 1260k 1269k
7/17/2019 Housing Starts MoM -0.70% -0.90%
7/17/2019 Building Permits 1300k 1294k 1299k
7/17/2019 Building Permits MoM 0.10% 0.30% 0.70%
7/17/2019 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
7/18/2019 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 5 0.3
7/18/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 216k 209k
7/18/2019 Continuing Claims 1700k 1723k
7/18/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 63.8
7/18/2019 Bloomberg Economic Expectations 50.5
7/18/2019 Leading Index 0.10% 0.00%
7/19/2019 U. of Mich. Sentiment 98.7 98.2
7/19/2019 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 111.9
7/19/2019 U. of Mich. Expectations 89.3
7/19/2019 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.70%
7/19/2019 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.30%









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