After reaching a new high on Monday, S&P 500 futures trimmed overnight gains and US Treasuries are weaker on the back of better than expected retail sales. The headline US retail sales number showed a .4% increase MoM beating survey estimates of .2%. Sales in the control group, which is viewed by some analysts as a more accurate gauge of demand, doubled expectations at .7% MoM and provided an upward revision to the prior month. The strength in retail sales supports Fed Chairman Powell’s congressional testimony last week that consumer spending has driven growth. However, comments about current headwinds and acknowledging publicly that officials have possibly tightened monetary policy too much have set expectations of an upcoming rate cut.
Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
7/15/2019 | Empire Manufacturing | 2 | 4.3 | -8.6 | — |
7/16/2019 | Import Price Index MoM | -0.60% | -0.90% | -0.30% | 0.00% |
7/16/2019 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | -0.20% | -0.40% | -0.30% | — |
7/16/2019 | Import Price Index YoY | -2.30% | -2.00% | -1.50% | -1.10% |
7/16/2019 | Export Price Index MoM | -0.20% | -0.70% | -0.20% | — |
7/16/2019 | Export Price Index YoY | — | -1.60% | -0.70% | -0.80% |
7/16/2019 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.40% |
7/16/2019 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.10% | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.40% |
7/16/2019 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.30% | 0.70% | 0.50% | — |
7/16/2019 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | 0.70% | 0.50% | 0.60% |
7/16/2019 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.10% | 0.00% | 0.40% | — |
7/16/2019 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.20% | — |
7/16/2019 | Capacity Utilization | 78.10% | 77.90% | 78.10% | — |
7/16/2019 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 64 | 65 | 64 | — |
7/16/2019 | Business Inventories | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.50% | — |
7/16/2019 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $46.9b | — |
7/16/2019 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$7.8b | — |
7/17/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.40% | — |
7/17/2019 | Housing Starts | 1260k | — | 1269k | — |
7/17/2019 | Housing Starts MoM | -0.70% | — | -0.90% | — |
7/17/2019 | Building Permits | 1300k | — | 1294k | 1299k |
7/17/2019 | Building Permits MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.30% | 0.70% |
7/17/2019 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
7/18/2019 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 5 | — | 0.3 | — |
7/18/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 216k | — | 209k | — |
7/18/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1700k | — | 1723k | — |
7/18/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 63.8 | — |
7/18/2019 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 50.5 | — |
7/18/2019 | Leading Index | 0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
7/19/2019 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 98.7 | — | 98.2 | — |
7/19/2019 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 111.9 | — |
7/19/2019 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 89.3 | — |
7/19/2019 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.70% | — |
7/19/2019 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.30% | — |
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