July 16, 2020 Headlines

The biggest decline in Chinese stocks since early February is weighing on risk assets globally and pushing Treasury prices higher. The Shanghai Composite fell 4.5% on consumption worries and geopolitical concerns, as well as general skepticism that the country’s economy will be able to continue to improve while the rest of the world falters. The advance retail sales report for June was better than expected, with the headline figure up 7.5% (5% expected). Excluding autos, sales were up 7.3% (5% expected), and control group sales were up 5.6% (4% expected). The Philadelphia Fed business survey for July was also solid relative to expectations, and weekly jobless claims were in line with expectations. Not surprisingly, the market reaction to today’s date has been more muted, with risk assets much more sensitive to quarterly earnings announcements this week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
7/16/2020 Retail Sales Advance MoM 5.00% 7.50% 17.70% 18.20%
7/16/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM 5.00% 7.30% 12.40% 12.10%
7/16/2020 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas 5.00% 6.70% 12.40% 12.10%
7/16/2020 Retail Sales Control Group 4.00% 5.60% 11.00% 10.10%
7/16/2020 Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook 20 24.1 27.5
7/16/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 1250k 1300k 1314k 1310k
7/16/2020 Continuing Claims 17500k 17338k 18062k 17760k
7/16/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 42.9
7/16/2020 Business Inventories -2.30% -1.30%
7/16/2020 NAHB Housing Market Index 61 58
7/16/2020 Net Long-term TIC Flows -$128.4b
7/16/2020 Total Net TIC Flows $125.3b
7/17/2020 Building Permits 1290k 1220k 1216k
7/17/2020 Building Permits MoM 6.10% 14.40% 14.10%
7/17/2020 Housing Starts 1180k 974k
7/17/2020 Housing Starts MoM 21.20% 4.30%
7/17/2020 U. of Mich. Sentiment 79 78.1
7/17/2020 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 86.8 87.1
7/17/2020 U. of Mich. Expectations 74 72.3
7/17/2020 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 2.80% 3.00%
7/17/2020 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 2.50%


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