July 16, 2020 Headlines

The biggest decline in Chinese stocks since early February is weighing on risk assets globally and pushing Treasury prices higher. The Shanghai Composite fell 4.5% on consumption worries and geopolitical concerns, as well as general skepticism that the country’s economy will be able to continue to improve while the rest of the world falters. The advance retail sales report for June was better than expected, with the headline figure up 7.5% (5% expected). Excluding autos, sales were up 7.3% (5% expected), and control group sales were up 5.6% (4% expected). The Philadelphia Fed business survey for July was also solid relative to expectations, and weekly jobless claims were in line with expectations. Not surprisingly, the market reaction to today’s date has been more muted, with risk assets much more sensitive to quarterly earnings announcements this week.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
7/16/2020Retail Sales Advance MoM5.00%7.50%17.70%18.20%
7/16/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM5.00%7.30%12.40%12.10%
7/16/2020Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas5.00%6.70%12.40%12.10%
7/16/2020Retail Sales Control Group4.00%5.60%11.00%10.10%
7/16/2020Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2024.127.5—
7/16/2020Initial Jobless Claims1250k1300k1314k1310k
7/16/2020Continuing Claims17500k17338k18062k17760k
7/16/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——42.9—
7/16/2020Business Inventories-2.30%—-1.30%—
7/16/2020NAHB Housing Market Index61—58—
7/16/2020Net Long-term TIC Flows——-$128.4b—
7/16/2020Total Net TIC Flows——$125.3b—
7/17/2020Building Permits1290k—1220k1216k
7/17/2020Building Permits MoM6.10%—14.40%14.10%
7/17/2020Housing Starts1180k—974k—
7/17/2020Housing Starts MoM21.20%—4.30%—
7/17/2020U. of Mich. Sentiment79—78.1—
7/17/2020U. of Mich. Current Conditions86.8—87.1—
7/17/2020U. of Mich. Expectations74—72.3—
7/17/2020U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%—3.00%—
7/17/2020U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation——2.50%—

 

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