Treasury yields are up 2-4 bps across the curve this morning following a solid June retail sales report. Equity futures are up 22-38 bps ahead of the open, with tech leading the way amid the modest rate curve steepening. Retail sales rose 0.6% in June versus expectations of a 0.3% m/m decline, and ex-auto sales were up 1.3% (0.4% expected). The control group, which is the figure used in the GDP consumption calculation, rose 1.1% m/m, more than double expectations (0.5%). The June upside surprise was largely a result of downward revisions to May, and adjusting for the revisions, the June figures would be closer to the expected growth rates, which is still a solid month. As we discussed in our July Monthly Market Commentary, the most recent quarterly Fed report on household balance sheets painted a very healthy picture for consumption going forward following multiple rounds of fiscal stimulus as well as consumer deleveraging over the last 18 months (in aggregate).
Chief Investment Officer
|7/16/2021||Retail Sales Advance MoM||-0.30%||0.60%||-1.30%||-1.70%|
|7/16/2021||Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM||0.40%||1.30%||-0.70%||-0.90%|
|7/16/2021||Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas||0.50%||1.10%||-0.80%||-1.00%|
|7/16/2021||Retail Sales Control Group||0.40%||1.10%||-0.70%||-1.40%|
|7/16/2021||U. of Mich. Sentiment||86.5||—||85.5||—|
|7/16/2021||U. of Mich. Current Conditions||91||—||88.6||—|
|7/16/2021||U. of Mich. Expectations||85||—||83.5||—|
|7/16/2021||U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation||4.30%||—||4.20%||—|
|7/16/2021||U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation||—||—||2.80%||—|
|7/16/2021||Total Net TIC Flows||—||—||$101.2b||—|
|7/16/2021||Net Long-term TIC Flows||—||—||$100.7b||—|
Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.