July 17, 2019 Headlines

Treasury prices are slightly higher this morning following uninspiring corporate earnings combined with weak economic data out of Asia (Singaporean exports experienced the largest drop in six years). Additionally, comments from President Trump about the possibility of new tariffs on Chinese goods moved the specter of the trade war back to the forefront of investors’ minds. On the data front, mortgage applications continued to fall as the MBA Mortgage Applications index showed a decline of 1.1% last week. Looking deeper in the release shows that refinance applications increased by 1.5% and were largely driven by an increase in FHA activity. Construction of new homes fell for the second month in a row as new housing starts fell by 0.9% in June. Much of this decline stemmed from fewer multi-family starts, which decreased by 9.2%.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
7/17/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-1.10%	-2.40%	—
7/17/2019	Housing Starts	1260k	1253k	1269k	1265k
7/17/2019	Housing Starts MoM	-0.70%	-0.90%	-0.90%	-0.40%
7/17/2019	Building Permits	1300k	1220k	1294k	1299k
7/17/2019	Building Permits MoM	0.10%	-6.10%	0.30%	0.70%
7/17/2019	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
7/18/2019	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	5	—	0.3	—
7/18/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	216k	—	209k	—
7/18/2019	Continuing Claims	1700k	—	1723k	—
7/18/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	63.8	—
7/18/2019	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	—	50.5	—
7/18/2019	Leading Index	0.10%	—	0.00%	—
7/19/2019	U. of Mich. Sentiment	98.8	—	98.2	—
7/19/2019	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	112.8	—	111.9	—
7/19/2019	U. of Mich. Expectations	90	—	89.3	—
7/19/2019	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.70%	—
7/19/2019	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.30%	—

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