July 17, 2023 Headlines

Softer than expected Chinese economic growth in Q2 is fueling a modest rally in Treasuries this morning, with yields down 1-3 basis points across the curve. Chinese GDP rose 0.8% q/q in the second quarter, down from 2.2% in Q1, and the year-over-year growth rate was 6.3% versus expectations for a 7.1% rate. Further, the country’s youth unemployment rate (ages 16-24) rose to a record high of 21.3%. The weaker pace of growth is fueling speculation that China will have to provide more economic stimulus. This week’s U.S. calendar is headlined by June retail sales tomorrow, and multiple housing metrics will be released this week, including June housing starts (Wednesday) and June existing home sales (Thursday).

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

7/17/23Empire Manufacturing-
7/18/23Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%0.30%
7/18/23Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.40%0.10%
7/18/23Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.40%0.40%
7/18/23Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.20%
7/18/23New York Fed Services Business Activity-5.2
7/18/23Industrial Production MoM0.00%-0.20%
7/18/23Capacity Utilization79.50%79.60%
7/18/23Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.00%0.10%
7/18/23Business Inventories0.20%0.20%
7/18/23NAHB Housing Market Index5655
7/18/23Net Long-term TIC Flows$127.8b
7/18/23Total Net TIC Flows$48.4b
7/19/23MBA Mortgage Applications0.90%
7/19/23Housing Starts1475k1631k
7/19/23Building Permits1490k1491k1496k
7/19/23Housing Starts MoM-9.60%21.70%
7/19/23Building Permits MoM-0.40%5.20%5.60%
7/20/23Initial Jobless Claims241k237k
7/20/23Continuing Claims1730k1729k
7/20/23Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook-10-13.7
7/20/23Existing Home Sales4.21m4.30m
7/20/23Existing Home Sales MoM-2.20%0.20%
7/20/23Leading Index-0.60%-0.70%
7/21/23Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey
7/24/23Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.15
7/24/23S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI46.3
7/24/23S&P Global US Services PMI54.4
7/24/23S&P Global US Composite PMI53.2

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