Softer than expected Chinese economic growth in Q2 is fueling a modest rally in Treasuries this morning, with yields down 1-3 basis points across the curve. Chinese GDP rose 0.8% q/q in the second quarter, down from 2.2% in Q1, and the year-over-year growth rate was 6.3% versus expectations for a 7.1% rate. Further, the country’s youth unemployment rate (ages 16-24) rose to a record high of 21.3%. The weaker pace of growth is fueling speculation that China will have to provide more economic stimulus. This week’s U.S. calendar is headlined by June retail sales tomorrow, and multiple housing metrics will be released this week, including June housing starts (Wednesday) and June existing home sales (Thursday).
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 7/17/23 | Empire Manufacturing | -3.5 | 1.1 | 6.6 | — |
| 7/18/23 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 7/18/23 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/18/23 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 7/18/23 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 7/18/23 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -5.2 | — |
| 7/18/23 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.00% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 7/18/23 | Capacity Utilization | 79.50% | — | 79.60% | — |
| 7/18/23 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.00% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 7/18/23 | Business Inventories | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 7/18/23 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 56 | — | 55 | — |
| 7/18/23 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | $127.8b | — |
| 7/18/23 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | $48.4b | — |
| 7/19/23 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 7/19/23 | Housing Starts | 1475k | — | 1631k | — |
| 7/19/23 | Building Permits | 1490k | — | 1491k | 1496k |
| 7/19/23 | Housing Starts MoM | -9.60% | — | 21.70% | — |
| 7/19/23 | Building Permits MoM | -0.40% | — | 5.20% | 5.60% |
| 7/20/23 | Initial Jobless Claims | 241k | — | 237k | — |
| 7/20/23 | Continuing Claims | 1730k | — | 1729k | — |
| 7/20/23 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | -10 | — | -13.7 | — |
| 7/20/23 | Existing Home Sales | 4.21m | — | 4.30m | — |
| 7/20/23 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 7/20/23 | Leading Index | -0.60% | — | -0.70% | — |
| 7/21/23 | Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 7/24/23 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | -0.15 | — |
| 7/24/23 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 46.3 | — |
| 7/24/23 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 54.4 | — |
| 7/24/23 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 53.2 | — |
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