July 18, 2019 Headlines

US Treasury yields climbed higher this morning following a strong rebound in the Philadelphia’s Fed Factory Gauge. The general activity index rose by 21.5 points easing concerns for a manufacturing slowdown by surpassing all economist estimates. Additionally, the US-China trade war has made it back into the headlines as both sides have showed slow progress on key demands. For the US, China has not been purchasing the required volume of agricultural goods. In China’s case, the US has shown no improvements on reducing penalties to the telecom giant Huawei. While it is early in earning season, the sentiment remains that companies are struggling to pass on higher tariff-related costs and wages. Later today, FOMC members Bostic and William will speak on their monetary policy perspectives.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
7/15/2019	Empire Manufacturing	2	4.3	-8.6	—
7/16/2019	Import Price Index MoM	-0.60%	-0.90%	-0.30%	0.00%
7/16/2019	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	-0.20%	-0.40%	-0.30%	—
7/16/2019	Import Price Index YoY	-2.10%	-2.00%	-1.50%	-1.10%
7/16/2019	Export Price Index MoM	-0.20%	-0.70%	-0.20%	—
7/16/2019	Export Price Index YoY	—	-1.60%	-0.70%	-0.80%
7/16/2019	Retail Sales Advance MoM	0.20%	0.40%	0.50%	0.40%
7/16/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM	0.10%	0.40%	0.50%	0.40%
7/16/2019	Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas	0.30%	0.70%	0.50%	—
7/16/2019	Retail Sales Control Group	0.30%	0.70%	0.50%	0.60%
7/16/2019	Industrial Production MoM	0.10%	0.00%	0.40%	—
7/16/2019	Manufacturing (SIC) Production	0.30%	0.40%	0.20%	—
7/16/2019	Capacity Utilization	78.10%	77.90%	78.10%	—
7/16/2019	NAHB Housing Market Index	64	65	64	—
7/16/2019	Business Inventories	0.30%	0.30%	0.50%	—
7/16/2019	Net Long-term TIC Flows	—	$3.5b	$46.9b	—
7/16/2019	Total Net TIC Flows	—	$32.9b	-$7.8b	-$9.0b
7/17/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	-1.10%	-2.40%	—
7/17/2019	Housing Starts	1260k	1253k	1269k	1265k
7/17/2019	Housing Starts MoM	-0.70%	-0.90%	-0.90%	-0.40%
7/17/2019	Building Permits	1300k	1220k	1294k	1299k
7/17/2019	Building Permits MoM	0.10%	-6.10%	0.30%	0.70%
7/17/2019	U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
7/18/2019	Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook	5	21.8	0.3	—
7/18/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	216k	216k	209k	208k
7/18/2019	Continuing Claims	1700k	1686k	1723k	1728k
7/18/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	63.8	—
7/18/2019	Bloomberg Economic Expectations	—	—	50.5	—
7/18/2019	Leading Index	0.10%	—	0.00%	—
7/19/2019	U. of Mich. Sentiment	98.8	—	98.2	—
7/19/2019	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	112.8	—	111.9	—
7/19/2019	U. of Mich. Expectations	90	—	89.3	—
7/19/2019	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.70%	—
7/19/2019	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.30%	—

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