July 19, 2019 Headlines

Toward the end of yesterday’s trading session US Treasury yields sharply declined on the back of dovish comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams. In the speech at the Central Bank Research Association, Williams said “It’s better to take preventative measures than to wait for disaster to unfold.” Shortly after his comments, the market expectations for a 50bps rate cut at the July meeting jumped from around 30% to 59% based on implied probabilities in fed fund futures. However, afterwards, a New York Fed spokesperson clarified that the comments were drawn from academic research and not potential policy action at the upcoming FOMC meeting which caused the market to reverse some of the move.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

7/15/2019Empire Manufacturing24.3-8.6
7/16/2019Import Price Index MoM-0.60%-0.90%-0.30%0.00%
7/16/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.20%-0.40%-0.30%
7/16/2019Import Price Index YoY-2.10%-2.00%-1.50%-1.10%
7/16/2019Export Price Index MoM-0.20%-0.70%-0.20%
7/16/2019Export Price Index YoY-1.60%-0.70%-0.80%
7/16/2019Retail Sales Advance MoM0.20%0.40%0.50%0.40%
7/16/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.10%0.40%0.50%0.40%
7/16/2019Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.70%0.50%
7/16/2019Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.70%0.50%0.60%
7/16/2019Industrial Production MoM0.10%0.00%0.40%
7/16/2019Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.30%0.40%0.20%
7/16/2019Capacity Utilization78.10%77.90%78.10%
7/16/2019NAHB Housing Market Index646564
7/16/2019Business Inventories0.30%0.30%0.50%
7/16/2019Net Long-term TIC Flows$3.5b$46.9b
7/16/2019Total Net TIC Flows$32.9b-$7.8b-$9.0b
7/17/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-1.10%-2.40%
7/17/2019Housing Starts1260k1253k1269k1265k
7/17/2019Housing Starts MoM-0.70%-0.90%-0.90%-0.40%
7/17/2019Building Permits1300k1220k1294k1299k
7/17/2019Building Permits MoM0.10%-6.10%0.30%0.70%
7/17/2019U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
7/18/2019Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook521.80.3
7/18/2019Initial Jobless Claims216k216k209k208k
7/18/2019Continuing Claims1700k1686k1723k1728k
7/18/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort64.763.8
7/18/2019Bloomberg Economic Expectations5550.5
7/18/2019Leading Index0.10%-0.30%0.00%
7/19/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment98.898.498.2
7/19/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions112.8111.1111.9
7/19/2019U. of Mich. Expectations9090.189.3
7/19/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.60%2.70%
7/19/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.60%2.30%












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