Treasuries are unchanged to slightly lower (price) at the moment, but equities are generally weaker on trade concerns (S&P 500 futures -8 points). The European Union (EU) is reportedly preparing a new list of American products to hit with retaliatory tariffs in anticipation of the White House’s proposed auto tariffs. EU leader Jean-Claude Juncker is scheduled to meet with President Trump at the White House on July 25, and Juncker is expected to make a series of trade proposals aimed at dissuading the president’s auto tariff threats. The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the auto industry (including U.S. companies) is lobbying the Trump administration against these proposed tariffs on auto imports, arguing that the policy will lead to higher prices and lost jobs.
Another concern for market participants is the ongoing decline in commodity prices, particularly metals. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is down 10% since late May, and the move coincides with a weaker Chinese renminbi (yuan) and stronger dollar, as well as uncertainty regarding Chinese demand amid ongoing trade tensions. Some are suggesting that the sharp decline in commodity prices is overdone, but others suggest that prices of metals, in particular, are predictive of the pace of global growth. The volatility in commodity and currency markets has yet to spill over into U.S. rate markets, and a calming of trade tensions would likely spark a relatively strong rally in commodities (and USD softening).
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 07/16/2018 | Empire Manufacturing | 21 | 22.6 | 25 | — |
| 07/16/2018 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.80% | 1.30% |
| 07/16/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.90% | 1.40% |
| 07/16/2018 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.80% | 1.30% |
| 07/16/2018 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.40% | 0.00% | 0.50% | 0.80% |
| 07/16/2018 | Business Inventories | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.30% | — |
| 07/17/2018 | Industrial Production MoM | 0.50% | 0.60% | -0.10% | -0.50% |
| 07/17/2018 | Capacity Utilization | 78.30% | 78.00% | 77.90% | 77.70% |
| 07/17/2018 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.70% | 0.80% | -0.70% | -1.00% |
| 07/17/2018 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 68 | 68 | 68 | — |
| 07/17/2018 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | $69.9b | $138.7b | $233.1b |
| 07/17/2018 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | $45.6b | $93.9b | $94.0b |
| 07/18/2018 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -2.50% | 2.50% | — |
| 07/18/2018 | Housing Starts | 1320k | 1173k | 1350k | 1337k |
| 07/18/2018 | Housing Starts MoM | -2.20% | -12.30% | 5.00% | 4.80% |
| 07/18/2018 | Building Permits | 1330k | 1273k | 1301k | — |
| 07/18/2018 | Building Permits MoM | 2.20% | -2.20% | -4.60% | — |
| 07/18/2018 | U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 07/19/2018 | Initial Jobless Claims | 220k | 207k | 214k | 215k |
| 07/19/2018 | Continuing Claims | 1729k | 1751k | 1739k | 1743k |
| 07/19/2018 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 21.5 | 25.7 | 19.9 | — |
| 07/19/2018 | Bloomberg Economic Expectations | — | — | 56 | — |
| 07/19/2018 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 58 | — |
| 07/19/2018 | Leading Index | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |