July 2, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are moderately higher across the curve as the market digests the June jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls added 4.8 million jobs in June, well above the 3.23 million expected gain, and the headline unemployment rate fell 2.3 points to 11.1% (12.5% expected). It’s another example of the highly unusual times we find ourselves in when the U.S. labor market adds 7.5 million jobs in 2 months and the unemployment rate is still in double digits. Looked at a different way, we’ve now retraced approximately 40% of the 20 million jobs lost (establishment survey) in just two periods. Average hourly earnings fell 1.2% in June, which is positive in that it’s likely the result of lower-wage workers returning to the workforce. This was a solid report that exceeded expectations by a wide margin, although forecasting economic data in this environment is beyond challenging. The question for many is how the resurgence in COVID-19 cases in late June is affecting the reopening or, more importantly, the scaling back of the reopening. Regardless, this report is being received well by equity investors, with S&P 500 futures up 1.2% less than 30 minutes after the report was released.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

6/29/2020Pending Home Sales MoM19.30%44.30%-21.80%
6/29/2020Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-21.30%-10.40%-34.60%
6/29/2020Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-21.4-6.1-49.2
6/30/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.50%0.33%0.47%0.49%
6/30/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA3.80%3.98%3.92%3.91%
6/30/2020S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index224.1224.08222.21222.17
6/30/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA4.50%4.73%4.35%4.55%
6/30/2020S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index217.72214.96215.35
6/30/2020MNI Chicago PMI4536.632.3
6/30/2020Conf. Board Consumer Confidence91.598.186.685.9
6/30/2020Conf. Board Present Situation86.271.168.4
6/30/2020Conf. Board Expectations10696.997.6
7/1/2020MBA Mortgage Applications-1.80%-8.70%
7/1/2020Challenger Job Cuts YoY305.50%577.80%
7/1/2020ADP Employment Change2900k2369k-2760k3065k
7/1/2020Markit US Manufacturing PMI49.649.849.6
7/1/2020ISM Manufacturing49.852.643.1
7/1/2020ISM New Orders51.956.431.8
7/1/2020ISM Prices Paid44.651.340.8
7/1/2020ISM Employment42.132.1
7/1/2020Construction Spending MoM1.00%-2.10%-2.90%-3.50%
7/1/2020Revisions: Construction Spending
7/1/2020FOMC Meeting Minutes
7/1/2020Wards Total Vehicle Sales13.00m13.05m12.21m
7/2/2020Two-Month Payroll Net Revision90k
7/2/2020Change in Nonfarm Payrolls3230k4800k2509k2699k
7/2/2020Change in Private Payrolls3000k4767k3094k3232k
7/2/2020Change in Manufact. Payrolls425k356k225k250k
7/2/2020Unemployment Rate12.50%11.10%13.30%
7/2/2020Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.534.7
7/2/2020Average Hourly Earnings YoY5.30%5.00%6.70%6.60%
7/2/2020Average Hourly Earnings MoM-0.80%-1.20%-1.00%
7/2/2020Labor Force Participation Rate61.20%61.50%60.80%
7/2/2020Underemployment Rate18.00%21.20%
7/2/2020Initial Jobless Claims1350k1427k1480k1482k
7/2/2020Continuing Claims19000k19290k19522k19231k
7/2/2020Trade Balance-$53.2b-$54.6b-$49.4b-$49.8b
7/2/2020Bloomberg Consumer Comfort43.341.4
7/2/2020Factory Orders8.60%8.00%-13.00%-13.50%
7/2/2020Factory Orders Ex Trans6.50%2.60%-8.50%-8.90%
7/2/2020Durable Goods Orders15.80%15.70%15.80%
7/2/2020Durables Ex Transportation4.00%3.70%4.00%
7/2/2020Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air2.30%1.60%2.30%
7/2/2020Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air1.50%1.80%


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