July 2, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are moderately higher across the curve as the market digests the June jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls added 4.8 million jobs in June, well above the 3.23 million expected gain, and the headline unemployment rate fell 2.3 points to 11.1% (12.5% expected). It’s another example of the highly unusual times we find ourselves in when the U.S. labor market adds 7.5 million jobs in 2 months and the unemployment rate is still in double digits. Looked at a different way, we’ve now retraced approximately 40% of the 20 million jobs lost (establishment survey) in just two periods. Average hourly earnings fell 1.2% in June, which is positive in that it’s likely the result of lower-wage workers returning to the workforce. This was a solid report that exceeded expectations by a wide margin, although forecasting economic data in this environment is beyond challenging. The question for many is how the resurgence in COVID-19 cases in late June is affecting the reopening or, more importantly, the scaling back of the reopening. Regardless, this report is being received well by equity investors, with S&P 500 futures up 1.2% less than 30 minutes after the report was released.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
6/29/2020 Pending Home Sales MoM 19.30% 44.30% -21.80%
6/29/2020 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -21.30% -10.40% -34.60%
6/29/2020 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity -21.4 -6.1 -49.2
6/30/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.50% 0.33% 0.47% 0.49%
6/30/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA 3.80% 3.98% 3.92% 3.91%
6/30/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index 224.1 224.08 222.21 222.17
6/30/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA 4.50% 4.73% 4.35% 4.55%
6/30/2020 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index 217.72 214.96 215.35
6/30/2020 MNI Chicago PMI 45 36.6 32.3
6/30/2020 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 91.5 98.1 86.6 85.9
6/30/2020 Conf. Board Present Situation 86.2 71.1 68.4
6/30/2020 Conf. Board Expectations 106 96.9 97.6
7/1/2020 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.80% -8.70%
7/1/2020 Challenger Job Cuts YoY 305.50% 577.80%
7/1/2020 ADP Employment Change 2900k 2369k -2760k 3065k
7/1/2020 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 49.6 49.8 49.6
7/1/2020 ISM Manufacturing 49.8 52.6 43.1
7/1/2020 ISM New Orders 51.9 56.4 31.8
7/1/2020 ISM Prices Paid 44.6 51.3 40.8
7/1/2020 ISM Employment 42.1 32.1
7/1/2020 Construction Spending MoM 1.00% -2.10% -2.90% -3.50%
7/1/2020 Revisions: Construction Spending
7/1/2020 FOMC Meeting Minutes
7/1/2020 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 13.00m 13.05m 12.21m
7/2/2020 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision 90k
7/2/2020 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 3230k 4800k 2509k 2699k
7/2/2020 Change in Private Payrolls 3000k 4767k 3094k 3232k
7/2/2020 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 425k 356k 225k 250k
7/2/2020 Unemployment Rate 12.50% 11.10% 13.30%
7/2/2020 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.5 34.5 34.7
7/2/2020 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 5.30% 5.00% 6.70% 6.60%
7/2/2020 Average Hourly Earnings MoM -0.80% -1.20% -1.00%
7/2/2020 Labor Force Participation Rate 61.20% 61.50% 60.80%
7/2/2020 Underemployment Rate 18.00% 21.20%
7/2/2020 Initial Jobless Claims 1350k 1427k 1480k 1482k
7/2/2020 Continuing Claims 19000k 19290k 19522k 19231k
7/2/2020 Trade Balance -$53.2b -$54.6b -$49.4b -$49.8b
7/2/2020 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 43.3 41.4
7/2/2020 Factory Orders 8.60% 8.00% -13.00% -13.50%
7/2/2020 Factory Orders Ex Trans 6.50% 2.60% -8.50% -8.90%
7/2/2020 Durable Goods Orders 15.80% 15.70% 15.80%
7/2/2020 Durables Ex Transportation 4.00% 3.70% 4.00%
7/2/2020 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 2.30% 1.60% 2.30%
7/2/2020 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 1.50% 1.80%

 

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