July 21, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are drifting slightly higher to start the day on what should be a quiet Friday. There are no economic releases today, and the Fed remains in its blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. The Treasury is moving closer to fully replenishing its general account at the Fed (TGA) following the debt ceiling extension, and the market impact thus far has been minimal. The TGA is now up to $537.4 billion after falling below $50 billion just before the debt ceiling agreement. Most of the funding has come from a reduction in the Fed’s reverse repo program (RRP), which has fallen from a peak of $2.3 trillion at the end of May to $1.7 trillion. Money market funds represent much of the investment in the RRP, implying that those entities have reallocated investments from the RRP into Treasury bills over the last month. As a result, bank reserves have held relatively steady and actually increased by $58.3 billion last week, a positive outcome given the general liquidity challenges for the banking system in the current environment.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
7/21/23 Bloomberg July United States Economic Survey
7/24/23 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index -0.15 -0.15
7/24/23 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 46 46.3
7/24/23 S&P Global US Services PMI 54.1 54.4
7/24/23 S&P Global US Composite PMI 53.2
7/25/23 Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity -16.6
7/25/23 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.60% 0.70%
7/25/23 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA 0.70% 0.91%
7/25/23 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA -1.80% -1.70%
7/25/23 S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA -0.24%
7/25/23 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence 112 109.7
7/25/23 Conf. Board Present Situation 155.3
7/25/23 Conf. Board Expectations 79.3
7/25/23 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index -10 -7
7/25/23 Richmond Fed Business Conditions -12
7/26/23 MBA Mortgage Applications 1.10%
7/26/23 New Home Sales 725k 763k
7/26/23 New Home Sales MoM -5.00% 12.20%
7/26/23 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 5.50% 5.25%
7/26/23 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 5.25% 5.00%
7/26/23 Interest on Reserve Balances Rate 5.40% 5.15%
7/27/23 GDP Annualized QoQ 1.80% 2.00%
7/27/23 Personal Consumption 4.20%
7/27/23 GDP Price Index 3.00% 4.10%
7/27/23 Core PCE QoQ 4.90%
7/27/23 Durable Goods Orders 0.90% 1.80%
7/27/23 Durables Ex Transportation 0.10% 0.70%
7/27/23 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -0.20% 0.70%
7/27/23 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.30%
7/27/23 Initial Jobless Claims 236k 228k
7/27/23 Continuing Claims 1754k
7/27/23 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$91.5b -$91.1b
7/27/23 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.00%
7/27/23 Retail Inventories MoM 0.80%
7/27/23 Pending Home Sales MoM -0.50% -2.70%
7/27/23 Pending Home Sales NSA YoY -20.80%
7/27/23 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity -12
7/28/23 Employment Cost Index 1.10% 1.20%
7/28/23 Personal Income 0.50% 0.40%
7/28/23 Personal Spending 0.40% 0.10%
7/28/23 Real Personal Spending 0.00%
7/28/23 PCE Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.10%
7/28/23 PCE Deflator YoY 3.00% 3.80%
7/28/23 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.20% 0.30%
7/28/23 PCE Core Deflator YoY 4.20% 4.60%
7/28/23 U. of Mich. Sentiment 72.6 72.6
7/28/23 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 77.5
7/28/23 U. of Mich. Expectations 69.4
7/28/23 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.40%
7/28/23 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.10%
7/28/23 Kansas City Fed Services Activity 14




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