July 22, 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower this morning on geopolitical tensions (US/Iran & US/Turkey), but US equity futures are higher ahead of the open on positive headlines related to US/China negotiations. Regarding the latter, Chinese firms plan to buy more American agricultural products, and White House officials are meeting with US tech firms today to discuss potential waivers for shipping products to Huawei.  A comprehensive deal between the two countries doesn’t appear to be close at this point, but risk markets are responding favorably to any signs of progress. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the first estimate of Q2 GDP (Friday), flash Markit PMI data for July (Wednesday), and existing home sales for June (Tuesday). The blackout period has commenced ahead of the July 31 FOMC meeting, so there will be no Fed leaders speaking this week.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
7/22/2019 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index 0.08 -0.02 -0.05 -0.03
7/23/2019 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.40% 0.40%
7/23/2019 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 5 3
7/23/2019 Existing Home Sales 5.33m 5.34m
7/23/2019 Existing Home Sales MoM -0.20% 2.50%
7/24/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications -1.10%
7/24/2019 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 51 50.6
7/24/2019 Markit US Services PMI 51.9 51.5
7/24/2019 Markit US Composite PMI 51.5
7/24/2019 New Home Sales 660k 626k
7/24/2019 New Home Sales MoM 5.40% -7.80%
7/25/2019 Durable Goods Orders 0.70% -1.30%
7/25/2019 Durables Ex Transportation 0.20% 0.40%
7/25/2019 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.20% 0.50%
7/25/2019 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.20% 0.60%
7/25/2019 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$72.8b -$74.5b
7/25/2019 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.50% 0.40%
7/25/2019 Retail Inventories MoM 0.20% 0.50%
7/25/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 219k 216k
7/25/2019 Continuing Claims 1693k 1686k
7/25/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 64.7
7/25/2019 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 3 0
7/26/2019 Revisions: National Income and Accounts (GDP)
7/26/2019 GDP Annualized QoQ 1.80% 3.10%
7/26/2019 Personal Consumption 4.00% 0.90%
7/26/2019 GDP Price Index 2.00% 0.90%
7/26/2019 Core PCE QoQ 2.00% 1.20%













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