July 23, 2019 Headlines

Treasury prices are essentially unchanged at the moment but fluctuated between positive and negative territory overnight. Prices were initially lower on the announcement of the U.S. budget deal but reversed course on reports that a Russian military aircraft had violated Japanese and South Korean airspace (SK jets fired several warning shots). The tone in global equity markets in largely positive (Nikkei +0.95%, Euro Stoxx +1.38%), and S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.38%. Regarding monetary policy, markets have adjusted expectations down from a 50 bps cut in the fed funds rate on July 31 to a 25 bps cut, and a looming wildcard is the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. The White House and Congressional leaders agreed to a two-year budget and debt ceiling yesterday that would raise government spending by $320 billion over existing caps. The deal comes as the U.S. budget deficit approaches $1 trillion, and it shows that fiscal reform is not a major priority/concern for either political party at the moment.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
7/23/2019	FHFA House Price Index MoM	0.40%	0.10%	0.40%	—
7/23/2019	Richmond Fed Manufact. Index	5	—	3	—
7/23/2019	Existing Home Sales	5.32m	—	5.34m	—
7/23/2019	Existing Home Sales MoM	-0.40%	—	2.50%	—
7/24/2019	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-1.10%	—
7/24/2019	Markit US Manufacturing PMI	51	—	50.6	—
7/24/2019	Markit US Services PMI	51.8	—	51.5	—
7/24/2019	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	51.5	—
7/24/2019	New Home Sales	659k	—	626k	—
7/24/2019	New Home Sales MoM	5.30%	—	-7.80%	—
7/25/2019	Durable Goods Orders	0.80%	—	-1.30%	—
7/25/2019	Durables Ex Transportation	0.20%	—	0.40%	—
7/25/2019	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.20%	—	0.50%	—
7/25/2019	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	-0.20%	—	0.60%	—
7/25/2019	Advance Goods Trade Balance	-$72.5b	—	-$74.5b	—
7/25/2019	Wholesale Inventories MoM	0.50%	—	0.40%	—
7/25/2019	Retail Inventories MoM	0.20%	—	0.50%	—
7/25/2019	Initial Jobless Claims	219k	—	216k	—
7/25/2019	Continuing Claims	1688k	—	1686k	—
7/25/2019	Bloomberg Consumer Comfort	—	—	64.7	—
7/25/2019	Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity	3	—	0	—
7/26/2019	Revisions: National Income and Accounts (GDP)
7/26/2019	GDP Annualized QoQ	1.80%	—	3.10%	—
7/26/2019	Personal Consumption	4.00%	—	0.90%	—
7/26/2019	GDP Price Index	2.00%	—	0.90%	—
7/26/2019	Core PCE QoQ	2.00%	—	1.20%	—

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