July 23, 2019 Headlines

Treasury prices are essentially unchanged at the moment but fluctuated between positive and negative territory overnight. Prices were initially lower on the announcement of the U.S. budget deal but reversed course on reports that a Russian military aircraft had violated Japanese and South Korean airspace (SK jets fired several warning shots).  The tone in global equity markets in largely positive (Nikkei +0.95%, Euro Stoxx +1.38%), and S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.38%.  Regarding monetary policy, markets have adjusted expectations down from a 50 bps cut in the fed funds rate on July 31 to a 25 bps cut, and a looming wildcard is the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. The White House and Congressional leaders agreed to a two-year budget and debt ceiling yesterday that would raise government spending by $320 billion over existing caps. The deal comes as the U.S. budget deficit approaches $1 trillion, and it shows that fiscal reform is not a major priority/concern for either political party at the moment.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

7/23/2019FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.10%0.40%
7/23/2019Richmond Fed Manufact. Index53
7/23/2019Existing Home Sales5.32m5.34m
7/23/2019Existing Home Sales MoM-0.40%2.50%
7/24/2019MBA Mortgage Applications-1.10%
7/24/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI5150.6
7/24/2019Markit US Services PMI51.851.5
7/24/2019Markit US Composite PMI51.5
7/24/2019New Home Sales659k626k
7/24/2019New Home Sales MoM5.30%-7.80%
7/25/2019Durable Goods Orders0.80%-1.30%
7/25/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.20%0.40%
7/25/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%0.50%
7/25/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.20%0.60%
7/25/2019Advance Goods Trade Balance-$72.5b-$74.5b
7/25/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.40%
7/25/2019Retail Inventories MoM0.20%0.50%
7/25/2019Initial Jobless Claims219k216k
7/25/2019Continuing Claims1688k1686k
7/25/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort64.7
7/25/2019Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity30
7/26/2019Revisions: National Income and Accounts (GDP)
7/26/2019GDP Annualized QoQ1.80%3.10%
7/26/2019Personal Consumption4.00%0.90%
7/26/2019GDP Price Index2.00%0.90%
7/26/2019Core PCE QoQ2.00%1.20%














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