July 23, 2019 Headlines

Treasury prices are essentially unchanged at the moment but fluctuated between positive and negative territory overnight. Prices were initially lower on the announcement of the U.S. budget deal but reversed course on reports that a Russian military aircraft had violated Japanese and South Korean airspace (SK jets fired several warning shots).  The tone in global equity markets in largely positive (Nikkei +0.95%, Euro Stoxx +1.38%), and S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.38%.  Regarding monetary policy, markets have adjusted expectations down from a 50 bps cut in the fed funds rate on July 31 to a 25 bps cut, and a looming wildcard is the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. The White House and Congressional leaders agreed to a two-year budget and debt ceiling yesterday that would raise government spending by $320 billion over existing caps. The deal comes as the U.S. budget deficit approaches $1 trillion, and it shows that fiscal reform is not a major priority/concern for either political party at the moment.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
7/23/2019 FHFA House Price Index MoM 0.40% 0.10% 0.40% —
7/23/2019 Richmond Fed Manufact. Index 5 — 3 —
7/23/2019 Existing Home Sales 5.32m — 5.34m —
7/23/2019 Existing Home Sales MoM -0.40% — 2.50% —
7/24/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -1.10% —
7/24/2019 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 51 — 50.6 —
7/24/2019 Markit US Services PMI 51.8 — 51.5 —
7/24/2019 Markit US Composite PMI — — 51.5 —
7/24/2019 New Home Sales 659k — 626k —
7/24/2019 New Home Sales MoM 5.30% — -7.80% —
7/25/2019 Durable Goods Orders 0.80% — -1.30% —
7/25/2019 Durables Ex Transportation 0.20% — 0.40% —
7/25/2019 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air 0.20% — 0.50% —
7/25/2019 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air -0.20% — 0.60% —
7/25/2019 Advance Goods Trade Balance -$72.5b — -$74.5b —
7/25/2019 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.50% — 0.40% —
7/25/2019 Retail Inventories MoM 0.20% — 0.50% —
7/25/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 219k — 216k —
7/25/2019 Continuing Claims 1688k — 1686k —
7/25/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort — — 64.7 —
7/25/2019 Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity 3 — 0 —
7/26/2019 Revisions: National Income and Accounts (GDP)
7/26/2019 GDP Annualized QoQ 1.80% — 3.10% —
7/26/2019 Personal Consumption 4.00% — 0.90% —
7/26/2019 GDP Price Index 2.00% — 0.90% —
7/26/2019 Core PCE QoQ 2.00% — 1.20% —

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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