Treasury prices are essentially unchanged at the moment but fluctuated between positive and negative territory overnight. Prices were initially lower on the announcement of the U.S. budget deal but reversed course on reports that a Russian military aircraft had violated Japanese and South Korean airspace (SK jets fired several warning shots). The tone in global equity markets in largely positive (Nikkei +0.95%, Euro Stoxx +1.38%), and S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.38%. Regarding monetary policy, markets have adjusted expectations down from a 50 bps cut in the fed funds rate on July 31 to a 25 bps cut, and a looming wildcard is the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. The White House and Congressional leaders agreed to a two-year budget and debt ceiling yesterday that would raise government spending by $320 billion over existing caps. The deal comes as the U.S. budget deficit approaches $1 trillion, and it shows that fiscal reform is not a major priority/concern for either political party at the moment.
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
7/23/2019 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.40% | — |
7/23/2019 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | 5 | — | 3 | — |
7/23/2019 | Existing Home Sales | 5.32m | — | 5.34m | — |
7/23/2019 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -0.40% | — | 2.50% | — |
7/24/2019 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.10% | — |
7/24/2019 | Markit US Manufacturing PMI | 51 | — | 50.6 | — |
7/24/2019 | Markit US Services PMI | 51.8 | — | 51.5 | — |
7/24/2019 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | — | 51.5 | — |
7/24/2019 | New Home Sales | 659k | — | 626k | — |
7/24/2019 | New Home Sales MoM | 5.30% | — | -7.80% | — |
7/25/2019 | Durable Goods Orders | 0.80% | — | -1.30% | — |
7/25/2019 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
7/25/2019 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | 0.50% | — |
7/25/2019 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | -0.20% | — | 0.60% | — |
7/25/2019 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$72.5b | — | -$74.5b | — |
7/25/2019 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
7/25/2019 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.50% | — |
7/25/2019 | Initial Jobless Claims | 219k | — | 216k | — |
7/25/2019 | Continuing Claims | 1688k | — | 1686k | — |
7/25/2019 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 64.7 | — |
7/25/2019 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | 3 | — | 0 | — |
7/26/2019 | Revisions: National Income and Accounts (GDP) | ||||
7/26/2019 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 1.80% | — | 3.10% | — |
7/26/2019 | Personal Consumption | 4.00% | — | 0.90% | — |
7/26/2019 | GDP Price Index | 2.00% | — | 0.90% | — |
7/26/2019 | Core PCE QoQ | 2.00% | — | 1.20% | — |
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