Treasuries and U.S. equity futures are little changed on what has been a relatively quiet morning thus far. The yield curve (2yr/10yr spread) is 6 basis points steeper since Friday morning (0.30% currently). There was a bit of noise in currency markets overnight, with China’s yuan weaker and Japan’s yen stronger versus the dollar. The latter is attributable to a Friday article suggesting the Bank of Japan is considering changing its Yield Curve Control policy at the July 31 meeting.  On the trade front, President Trump and Jean-Claude Juncker from the EU will meet on Wednesday to discuss potential auto tariffs proposed by the White House. Auto industry lobbyists have appealed to the Trump administration in strong opposition of such measures. This week’s economic calendar is highlighted by the release of the first estimate of Q2 GDP on Friday (4.2% expected). June durable goods orders will be released on Thursday, and there are no scheduled appearances this week from Fed leaders (currently in blackout period ahead of August 1 meeting).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date TimeEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
07/23/2018Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0.250.43-0.15-0.45
07/23/2018Existing Home Sales5.44m5.43m
07/23/2018Existing Home Sales MoM0.20%-0.40%
07/24/2018FHFA House Price Index MoM0.40%0.10%
07/24/2018Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.155.4
07/24/2018Markit US Services PMI56.356.5
07/24/2018Markit US Composite PMI56.2
07/24/2018Richmond Fed Manufact. Index1820
07/25/2018MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%
07/25/2018New Home Sales668k689k
07/25/2018New Home Sales MoM-2.90%6.70%
07/26/2018Advance Goods Trade Balance-$67.0b-$64.8b-$64.8b
07/26/2018Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%0.60%
07/26/2018Initial Jobless Claims215k207k
07/26/2018Continuing Claims1735k1751k
07/26/2018Retail Inventories MoM0.40%0.40%
07/26/2018Durable Goods Orders3.00%-0.40%
07/26/2018Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.00%
07/26/2018Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.30%
07/26/2018Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%0.20%
07/26/2018Bloomberg Consumer Comfort58.8
07/26/2018Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity2528
07/27/2018Revisions: GDP
07/27/2018GDP Annualized QoQ4.20%2.00%
07/27/2018Personal Consumption3.00%0.90%
07/27/2018GDP Price Index2.30%2.20%
07/27/2018Core PCE QoQ2.20%2.30%
07/27/2018U. of Mich. Sentiment97.197.1
07/27/2018U. of Mich. Current Conditions113.9
07/27/2018U. of Mich. Expectations86.4
07/27/2018U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.90%
07/27/2018U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%
07/30/2018Pending Home Sales MoM0.40%-0.50%
07/30/2018Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-2.80%
07/30/2018Dallas Fed Manf. Activity3136.5